2000—2020年中国省际人口迁移格局的演化特征及影响因素
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古恒宇, 劳昕, 温锋华, 赵志浩
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Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of interprovincial migration in China between 2000 and 2020
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GU Hengyu, LAO Xin, WEN Fenghua, ZHAO Zhihao
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表5 中国省际人口迁移ESF PPML分时段回归结果
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Tab. 5 Modeling results of ESF PPML regressions on China's interprovincial migration by period
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| 变量 | 模型1(2000—2020年) | 模型2(2000—2005年) | 模型3(2005—2010年) | 模型4(2010—2015年) | 模型5(2015—2020年) | | Mij | Mij | Mij | Mij | Mij | | POPi | 0.866*** (0.057) | 0.906*** (0.064) | 0.981*** (0.065) | 0.873*** (0.083) | 1.199*** (0.073) | | POPj | 0.438*** (0.054) | 0.299*** (0.077) | 0.513*** (0.076) | 0.353*** (0.083) | 0.475*** (0.063) | | DISTij | -0.027*** (0.003) | -0.025*** (0.003) | -0.028*** (0.005) | -0.032*** (0.004) | -0.046*** (0.006) | | WAGEi | -0.832*** (0.174) | -0.914*** (0.209) | -0.179 (0.292) | -0.977*** (0.252) | -0.021 (0.227) | | WAGEj | 1.822*** (0.148) | 1.645*** (0.266) | 2.177*** (0.233) | 1.670*** (0.304) | 1.749*** (0.206) | | GDPGi | -0.014* (0.008) | -0.004 (0.026) | -0.074** (0.031) | -0.034* (0.017) | 0.043*** (0.012) | | GDPGj | 0.007 (0.006) | -0.018 (0.034) | 0.023 (0.019) | 0.008 (0.016) | -0.021 (0.013) | | HTECi | -0.033*** (0.011) | -0.088*** (0.019) | 0.014 (0.018) | -0.039*** (0.015) | -0.051*** (0.015) | | HTECj | 0.058** (0.012) | 0.078*** (0.023) | 0.079*** (0.015) | 0.108*** (0.016) | 0.044*** (0.013) | | DOCi | -0.118 (0.089) | 0.078 (0.163) | -0.655*** (0.200) | -0.352** (0.145) | -0.332*** (0.105) | | DOCj | 0.374*** (0.103) | 0.650** (0.291) | 0.334* (0.182) | 0.416*** (0.156) | 0.435*** (0.098) | | MSTOCKij | 0.054*** (0.003) | 0.047*** (0.003) | 0.038*** (0.003) | 0.049*** (0.003) | 0.058*** (0.003) | | AIRi | 0.397*** (0.075) | 0.570*** (0.078) | 0.345*** (0.121) | 0.373*** (0.086) | -0.303*** (0.096) | | AIRj | -0.222*** (0.066) | -0.296** (0.126) | -0.472*** (0.105) | -0.225** (0.102) | -0.363*** (0.105) | | TEMPi | -0.003 (0.005) | -0.015** (0.007) | 0.000 (0.006) | -0.010** (0.005) | 0.034*** (0.005) | | TEMPj | 0.001 (0.005) | -0.018*** (0.006) | -0.006 (0.006) | -0.009 (0.006) | -0.003 (0.007) | | HPi | 0.014*** (0.004) | -0.002 (0.008) | -0.022** (0.011) | 0.023*** (0.006) | 0.056*** (0.007) | | HPj | -0.011*** (0.003) | 0.005 (0.007) | 0.027** (0.012) | -0.015*** (0.005) | -0.013* (0.007) | | Constant | -12.533*** (2.264) | -9.699*** (3.156) | -19.896*** (3.410) | -7.927** (3.953) | -22.302*** (3.048) | | 观测量 | 3480 | 870 | 870 | 870 | 870 | | 时间固定效应 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | | 滤波算子数量 | 19 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 15 | | 残差莫兰指数 | 0.063*** | -0.005 | 0.051*** | 0.096*** | 0.054*** | | Pseudo R2 | 0.908 | 0.927 | 0.909 | 0.908 | 0.904 | | AIC | 47909617.91 | 9383046 | 15326732.10 | 11026554.64 | 9888289 | | BIC | 47909851.79 | 9383213 | 15326870.39 | 11026692.93 | 9888451 |
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