中国省际高技能人才迁移的时空演化机制

古恒宇, 沈体雁

Spatio-temporal evolution mechanism of China's internal skilled migration

GU Hengyu, SHEN Tiyan

表4 中国省际高技能人才迁移驱动因素的时空演化Hurdle及空间Hurdle引力模型结果

Tab. 4 Results of Hurdle and ESF Hurdle gravity models on the evolution of driving forces for China's internal skilled migration

变量 （3）Hurdle引力模型 （4）空间Hurdle引力模型 Logistic Negative Binomial Logistic Negative Binomial WAGEj#Y1 3.809*** (0.648) 1.688*** (0.198) 4.679*** (0.697) 1.501*** (0.204) WAGEj#Y2 2.298*** (0.655) 1.699*** (0.218) 2.432*** (0.702) 1.580*** (0.228) WAGEj#Y3 3.346*** (0.583) 1.034*** (0.190) 3.382*** (0.604) 1.144*** (0.175) GDPGi#Y1 0.080 (0.052) 0.088*** (0.023) 0.046 (0.056) 0.087*** (0.025) GDPGi#Y2 -0.035 (0.038) -0.020 (0.014) -0.034 (0.042) -0.009 (0.014) GDPGi#Y3 -0.099** (0.042) -0.060*** (0.017) -0.089** (0.043) -0.058*** (0.015) GDPGj#Y1 -0.115* (0.063) 0.004 (0.025) -0.196*** (0.064) 0.000 (0.026) GDPGj#Y2 0.038 (0.042) -0.003 (0.015) 0.023 (0.046) 0.003 (0.016) GDPGj#Y3 0.080* (0.043) 0.018 (0.017) 0.075* (0.046) 0.031** (0.015) HIGHTECi#Y1 -0.084** (0.042) -0.042*** (0.016) -0.148*** (0.045) -0.036** (0.015) HIGHTECi#Y2 -0.001 (0.043) 0.003 (0.014) -0.044 (0.045) 0.001 (0.014) HIGHTECi#Y3 0.007 (0.045) 0.007 (0.015) -0.033 (0.048) 0.016 (0.014) HIGHTECj#Y1 0.144*** (0.046) 0.024 (0.015) 0.087* (0.048) 0.017 (0.015) HIGHTECj#Y2 0.163*** (0.046) 0.005 (0.014) 0.119** (0.049) 0.001 (0.013) HIGHTECj#Y3 0.123** (0.049) 0.077*** (0.015) 0.080 (0.049) 0.069*** (0.014) TEMPi#Y1 0.006 (0.015) 0.012* (0.006) 0.016 (0.016) 0.009 (0.006) TEMPi#Y2 0.017 (0.017) 0.017*** (0.006) 0.025 (0.019) 0.011** (0.006) TEMPi#Y3 -0.004 (0.020) 0.017** (0.007) 0.001 (0.021) 0.010 (0.006) TEMPj#Y1 -0.075*** (0.020) -0.026*** (0.006) -0.066*** (0.021) -0.030*** (0.007) TEMPj#Y2 -0.064*** (0.020) -0.019*** (0.007) -0.064*** (0.021) -0.023*** (0.007) TEMPj#Y3 -0.119*** (0.021) -0.033*** (0.008) -0.127*** (0.021) -0.041*** (0.007) AIRi#Y1 0.301 (0.217) -0.093 (0.103) 0.065 (0.231) -0.083 (0.103) AIRi#Y2 -0.305 (0.235) 0.024 (0.078) -0.532** (0.260) 0.075 (0.078) AIRi#Y3 0.143 (0.312) 0.099 (0.108) -0.195 (0.331) 0.153 (0.105) AIRj#Y1 0.553*** (0.211) -0.005 (0.095) 0.355 (0.222) -0.007 (0.096) AIRj#Y2 0.073 (0.222) -0.330*** (0.081) -0.174 (0.246) -0.368*** (0.083) AIRj#Y3 0.441 (0.295) -0.104 (0.102) 0.231 (0.308) -0.171* (0.100) EDUi#Y1 0.393 (0.826) 0.073 (0.301) 0.000 (0.885) -0.042 (0.292) EDUi#Y2 1.438** (0.629) 0.319 1.388** (0.667) 0.526*** (0.201) EDUi#Y3 2.281*** (0.852) 0.312 2.072** (0.862) 0.608** (0.289) EDUj#Y1 1.667** (0.837) 0.297 1.485* (0.877) 0.317 (0.274) EDUj#Y2 -0.020 (0.677) -0.032 -0.250 (0.729) 0.049 (0.207) EDUj#Y3 1.231 (0.781) 0.584** (0.296) 1.230 (0.812) 0.717** (0.283) HEALTHi#Y1 0.607*** (0.188) -0.016 (0.068) 0.627*** (0.201) 0.054 (0.067) HEALTHi#Y2 0.298* (0.175) 0.005 (0.053) 0.250 (0.186) -0.006 (0.054) HEALTHi#Y3 0.039 (0.244) -0.106 (0.085) 0.173 (0.265) -0.083 (0.084) HEALTHj#Y1 0.829*** (0.205) 0.114* (0.068) 0.853*** (0.219) 0.195*** (0.069) HEALTHj#Y2 0.492** (0.240) 0.231*** (0.086) 0.514** (0.254) 0.288*** (0.084) HEALTHj#Y3 0.999*** (0.248) 0.326*** (0.088) 1.219*** (0.262) 0.419*** (0.081) 变量 （3）Hurdle引力模型 （4）空间Hurdle引力模型 Logistic Negative Binomial Logistic Negative Binomial GREENi#Y1 0.338** (0.168) 0.247*** (0.060) 0.207 (0.183) 0.189*** (0.062) GREENi#Y2 0.092 (0.166) 0.060 (0.051) -0.002 (0.171) 0.071 (0.050) GREENi#Y3 0.267 (0.188) 0.075 (0.067) 0.218 (0.202) 0.046 (0.061) GREENj#Y1 0.156 (0.179) 0.417*** (0.070) 0.081 (0.192) 0.395*** (0.068) GREENj#Y2 0.491*** (0.160) 0.130** (0.051) 0.554*** (0.174) 0.082 (0.052) GREENj#Y3 0.152 (0.186) 0.163** (0.068) 0.157 (0.199) 0.101 (0.065) Constant -83.774*** (10.604) -23.478*** (3.575) -83.071*** (11.150) -28.717*** (3.297) 引力变量 Yes Yes 控制变量 Yes Yes 时间固定效应 Yes Yes 空间滤波 No Yes