1990—2015年亚洲内部人口迁移格局及影响因素
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刘晔, 王晓歌, 管靖, 古恒宇
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Spatial pattern and determinants of international migration flows in Asia, 1990-2015
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LIU Ye, WANG Xiaoge, GUAN Jing, GU Hengyu
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表3 面板负二项引力模型和ESF面板负二项引力模型结果
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Tab. 3 Results from negative binomial model and eigenvector spatial filtering negative binomial model
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| 变量名称 | （1）面板负二项引力模型 | | （2）ESF面板负二项引力模型 | | 系数 | 标准误 | 系数 | 标准误 | | O_preGDP | -0.129*** | (0.016) | | -0.044** | (0.018) | | D_preGDP | 0.211*** | (0.016) | 0.170*** | (0.019) | | O_GDPgrow | -0.023*** | (0.003) | -0.023*** | (0.003) | | D_GDPgrow | 0.004 | (0.003) | 0.006* | (0.003) | | O_Inf | -0.022 | (0.039) | 0.092** | (0.041) | | D_Inf | 0.006 | (0.036) | -0.066 | (0.041) | | O_PoliStab | 0.234*** | (0.029) | 0.117*** | (0.030) | | D_PoliStab | 0.014 | (0.027) | 0.096 | (0.031) | | O_War | 0.286*** | (0.020) | 0.368*** | (0.021) | | D_War | -0.029 | (0.020) | -0.056** | (0.022) | | Trade | 0.060*** | (0.005) | 0.055*** | (0.006) | | Language | 0.227*** | (0.063) | 0.256*** | (0.076) | | Religion | 0.242*** | (0.044) | 0.086* | (0.050) | | MSTOCK | 0.023 | (0.164) | 0.163 | (0.160) | | Union | 0.018 | (0.045) | 0.018 | (0.045) | | O_POP | 0.071** | (0.030) | 0.084** | (0.035) | | D_POP | 0.101*** | (0.030) | 0.151*** | (0.034) | | D_Student | 0.011* | (0.006) | 0.015** | (0.006) | | Dist | -0.118*** | (0.027) | -0.182*** | (0.031) | | Year1 | 0.146** | (0.062) | 0.183*** | (0.065) | | Year2 | 0.314*** | (0.056) | 0.338*** | (0.059) | | Year3 | 0.265*** | (0.054) | 0.375*** | (0.056) | | Year4 | 0.240*** | (0.048) | 0.261*** | (0.048) | | Constant | -4.634*** | (0.437) | -5.348*** | (0.517) | | 特征向量数 | - | | 164 | | 残差迁移流Moran's I | 0.184*** | | 0.157*** | | N | 12250 | | 12250 | | AIC | 82165.92 | | 80261.07 | | BIC | 82358.67 | | 81669.59 | | 对数似然值 | -41056.962 | | -39940.534 | | Moran's I | 0.029*** |
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