1972-2012年青藏高原中南部内陆湖泊的水位变化

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张鑫, 吴艳红, 张鑫. 1972-2012年青藏高原中南部内陆湖泊的水位变化. 69(7): 993-1001
ZHANG Xin, WU Yanhong, ZHANG Xin. Water level variation of inland lakes on the south-central Tibetan Plateau in 1972-2012. Acte Geographica Sinica, 69(7): 993-1001 复制到剪切板

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1972-2012年青藏高原中南部内陆湖泊的水位变化

张鑫^1,², 吴艳红², 张鑫¹

1. 西北农林科技大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 陕西杨凌 712100

2. 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所, 北京 100094

吴艳红 (1979-), 女, 副研究员, 研究方向为遥感水文。E-mail: wuyh@radi.ac.cn

作者简介：张鑫 (1990-), 女, 硕士研究生, 研究方向为遥感水文。E-mail: xzhang@nwsuaf.edu.cn

基金:中国科学院战略性先导科技专项 (B类) (XDB03030406); 国家自然科学基金项目 (41371218)

摘要

青藏高原的湖泊水位变化能够清晰的记录湖泊波动,分析近几十年来气候变暖背景下青藏高原典型湖泊水位的动态变化,对理解全球变化的区域响应特征和规律有重要意义。本文利用多源遥感数据,获取1972-2012年青藏高原南部地区5个典型湖泊的面积与水位序列,并分析了40年来湖泊水位的变化特征。研究结果表明,1972-2012年,普莫雍错,塔若错,扎日南木错水位呈上升趋势,分别上升了0.89 m、0.70 m、0.40 m;同期,佩枯错与玛旁雍错的水位呈下降趋势,分别下降了1.70 m、0.70 m。总体来看,五个湖泊在1990s-2012年的变化比1970s-1990s的变化更剧烈,从空间变化看,处于青藏高原边缘地带的佩枯错与玛旁雍错发生的变化呈现一致性,而位于中部地带的塔若错与扎日南木错的变化也呈现一致性。

关键词: 青藏高原; 湖泊水位; 动态变化; 遥感

Water level variation of inland lakes on the south-central Tibetan Plateau in 1972-2012

ZHANG Xin^1,², WU Yanhong², ZHANG Xin¹

1. College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China

2. Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth, CAS, Beijing 100094, China

Fund:The "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (B), No.XDB03030406; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41165011

Abstract

The changes of lake levels could keep a record of lake variation on the Tibetan Plateau. Under the background of global warming in recent years, it is of importance to understand regional responses to climate changes by revealing the lake level variation of the inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The paper obtained the time-series of the five typical lake areas and levels from 1972 to 2012 in the south-central Tibetan Plateau, and used the multi-sensor remote sensing data to analyze the variation of lake levels in recent 40 years. The results show that the three inland lakes (Pumo Yumco, Taro Co and Zhari Namco) expanded by 0.89 m, 0.70 m and 0.40 m in water level, respectively, while the two lakes (Peiku Co and Mapang Yumco) presented a decreasing tendency in water level. On the whole, the period 2000-2012 experienced remarkable changes compared with the preceding period (1976-1999). In term of spatial changes, the lakes of Peiku Co and Mapang Yumco, located in south fringe of the Tibetan Plateau, have shown the consistency in lake level changes, and so are the lakes of Taro Co and Zhari Namco in the southwestern part of central Tibetan Plateau.

Keyword: Tibetan Plateau; lake level; spatial-temporal change; remote sensing

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1 引言

青藏高原, 我国境内面积将近250, 000 km², 平均海拔4000~5000 m, 有“ 亚洲水塔” ^[1]和“ 第三极” ^[2]之称, 其环境变化对全球变化具有敏感效应与强烈影响^[3]。青藏高原湖泊总面积约占全国湖泊总面积的51.4%^[4]。近年来, 在全球变暖的大背景下, 湖泊水位出现了明显的变化, 与气候变化和冰川退缩之间存在着紧密的内在联系^[5], 而且对人类环境产生了十分明显的影响^[6]。因此, 研究青藏高原的湖泊水位变化规律, 分析出其对气候变化的响应特征有着重要的意义。湖泊水位变化对气候变化有敏感响应, 不同气候区, 响应的程度和变化特征存在差异。已有一些学者针对湖泊多年的水位变化开展了研究, 如纳木错^{[5, 7]}, 色林错^[8], 兹格塘错^{[9, 10]}, 羊卓雍错^[11]等, 分析较长时间内对青藏高原气候变化的响应, 揭示湖泊的变化规律与特征, 并且试从水量平衡的角度揭示影响湖泊变化的主要因素^{[12, 13]}而青藏高原广大无资料地区长时间序列的湖泊水位变化一直是空白。随着遥感数据和产品的丰富, 为湖泊水位变化的研究提供了宝贵的数据资料。其中, ICESat数据因其较高的精度与准确性^[14], 已经被广泛用于内陆湖泊水位变化的研究中^{[15, 16]}, Zhang G等^[16]利用ICESat数据监测了2003-2009年期间青藏高原湖泊的水位动态变化。

位于青藏高原腹地的普莫雍错等五个湖泊, 由于缺乏观测资料, 水位变化研究一直极少涉及, 本文在前人研究的基础上, 基于多源遥感数据和产品, 构建了1972-2012年的长时间湖泊水位序列, 并分析了其变化趋势和空间规律, 为全球变化的区域响应研究提供了可靠的数据源。

2 研究区概况

本研究选择位于东经94° 以西, 北纬32° 以南青藏高原南部湖盆区的5个典型湖泊为研究区(图1), 包括普莫雍错, 玛旁雍错, 佩枯错, 塔若错和扎日南木错 (表1)。扎日南木错 (30° 44′ ~31° 05′ N, 85° 20′ ~85° 54′ E) 和塔若错 (31° 03′ ~31° 13′ N, 83° 55′ ~84° 20′ E) 都位于青藏高原南部, 主要依赖湖面降水与冰雪融水的补给, 属于羌塘高寒草原半干旱气候区; 玛旁雍错 (30° 34'~30° 47'N, 81° 22'~81° 27'E)、佩枯错 (28° 46'~29° 02'N, 85° 30'~85° 42'E) 和普莫雍错 (28° 30'~28° 38'N, 90° 13'~90° 33'E) 都处于青藏高原南部的边缘地带, 佩枯错与普莫雍错主要依靠降水形成的径流以及冰川融水补给, 而玛旁雍错主要为湖面降水补给以及地表径流补给 (表1)。

表1 青藏高原南部典型湖泊概况^[4] Tab. 1 Overviews of typical lakes in southwestern Tibetan Plateau

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	图1 研究区域位置Fig. 1 Location of the five lakes in the Tibetan Plateau

3 数据与方法

3.1 数据

本研究的数据来源主要Landsat MSS/TM/ETM数据、MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) 地表反射率产品以及ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) GLAS(Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) 激光高度计数据 (表2)。

表2 研究区湖泊及所使用的遥感数据 Tab. 2 Typical lakes in the study area and remote sensing data for mapping lake areas and level

Landsat数据获取的时间范围是1972-2012年, 空间分辨率为30 m, 其中80年代之前的图像采用MSS数据, 共有14景, 80年代后采用TM/ETM+数据, TM有92景, ETM有117景。

MODIS数据选用MOD09A1地表反射率产品, 时间范围是2001-2012年, 空间分辨率500 m, 每八天合成一景, 一年共有46景, 共收集552景。

ICESat卫星于2003年1月13日升空, 是首颗激光高度计卫星, 星上装载一台GLAS (激光高度计), 地面垂直分辨率可达10 cm, 水平分辨率为170 m^[15]。普莫雍错等5个湖泊的水位数据均从GLA14产品中提取, 时间范围为2003年2月至2009年10月, 共82天的观测数值。用于湖泊面积提取的Landsat数据选取同一季节, (本研究中选取的数据主要在11月至次年3月之间), 以消除湖泊面积变化研究中季节因素的影响。

研究区5个湖泊均无水文站和常规的水位观测数据。研究区附近有4个气象站(图1)。

3.2 方法

3.2.1 湖泊面积提取方法本次提取湖泊面积的方法是自动化阈值选取^[17], 用Landsat卫星数据与MODIS卫星数据的作为数据源, 对水体与陆地像元进行分割。目前, 常见的水体指数有：NDWI^[18]、MNDWI^[19]、EWI^[20]、NWI^[21], 本方法采用归— 化差异水体指数 (NDWI), 可有效增强水体信息的同时减弱陆地, 山体, 土壤等背景信息, 计算公式为：

$\begin{matrix} NDWI = \frac{ρ_{GREEN} - ρ_{NIR}}{ρ_{GREEN} + ρ_{NIR}} \end{matrix}$ (1)

式中：ρ _GREEN为绿波段, ρ _NIR为近红外波段。其中, Lansat TM/ETM+ 传感器采用2, 4波段进行计算, Landsat MSS 采用4, 7波段进行计算, MODIS数据采用4, 2波段计算。

本次采用“ 全局— 局部” 分割思想, 以图像直方图中, 水体与陆地区域呈现双峰分布, 而非水体区域呈单峰分布作为阈值分割的依据^[17]。先以最小阈值作为初始阈值大致确定水体边界, 再根据每个水体, 通过公式 (2) 计算出不同阈值, 精确划分水体边界, 通过IDL平台, 基于Landsat与MODIS数据, 最终自动提取青藏高原主要湖泊的边界信息^[17]（图2）。

$\begin{matrix} T = \frac{μ {}_{water}\times σ_{land} + μ_{land} \times σ_{water}}{μ_{water} + μ_{land}} \end{matrix}$ (2)

式中, T为阈值, μ _water, μ _land分别为水体与陆地像元的均值; σ _water, σ _land分别为其对应的方差。

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	图2 水体面积提取过程Fig. 2 The extraction of lake area flowchart of lake extraction automatically

3.2.2 长时间湖泊水位序列构建方法本研究中水位数据来源于ICESat/GLA14卫星数据资料, 获取后对序列的异常值进行剔除^[15]形成2003-2009年研究区各个湖泊的水位序列。然后, 采取以下步骤构建1972-2012年的水位序列。

(1) 利用相同日期的ICESat获取的水位数据与MODIS获取的面积数据构建回归模型。因MODIS获取的面积数据涵盖2001-2012年全年的面积变化, 可与ICESat获取的水位数据日期相对应, 再根据面积与水位的高度相关关系, 构建回归模型 (表3)。

表3 五个湖泊ICESat水位数据与MODIS面积数据的回归模型 Tab. 3 The regression model of the extraction results from ICESat and MODIS of five lakes

(2) 挑选相近日期的Landsat与MODIS卫星获取的卫星数据, 利用二者的相关关系, 以及上一步的回归模型, 建立研究区湖泊的水位序列。由于传感器不同, Landsat卫星与MODIS提取的面积存在差异, 但是对相近日期两种卫星数据提取面积相关分析的结果表明, 二者有高度的相关性 (如, R² = 0.63, 玛旁雍错), 从而建立二者之间的关系 (表4)。最后利用回归模型构建出1972-2012年的水位序列。

表4 五个湖泊MODIS面积数据与Landsat面积数据的回归模型 Tab. 4 The regression model of the extraction results from MODIS and Landsatof five lakes

4 结果与分析

4.1 湖泊水位与面积的变化

总体来看, 自1976-2012年, 扎日南木错, 普莫雍错, 塔若错的水位高程值分别上涨了0.40 m, 0.89 m, 0.70 m, 面积分别扩张了36.97 km², 6.62 km², 3.63 km²。扎日南木错扩张速率最快, 为1.06 km²/a, 其次分别为普莫雍错 (0.17 km²/a), 塔若错 (0.10 km²/a)。同期, 玛旁雍错, 佩枯错的水位分别下降了0.70 m, 1.7 m, 面积减少了5.36 km², 9.46 km², 玛旁雍错的面积以0.13 km²/a的速度缩减, 而且佩枯错面积缩小的速度是玛旁雍错的2倍 (图3)。

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	图3 1972-2012年五个湖泊高程水位的变化Fig. 3 The level variation of the five lakes in 1972-2012

1999年之后, 塔若错与扎日南木错的水位高程值呈现上升趋势, 且水位上升的速度远大于1999年之前降低的速度, 分别上涨了2.20 m, 0.42 m, 面积分别为3.53 km²/a (38.76 km²), 1.00 km²/a (11.05 km²); 玛旁雍错与佩枯错以接近一致的速率继续保持下降趋势, 水位分别下降了0.07 m, 0.49 m, 面积分别减少了2.57 m, 2.47 m; 普莫雍错面积与高程值从1976-2012年整个时间序列内都呈现增长趋势, 1972-1999年之间, 湖泊水位只上升了0.21 m, 面积增长了1.51 km², 1999年后增长的水位值与面积分别为0.61 m, 4.63 km², 是1990-1999年增长的三倍多。表5为不同时期湖泊的面积水位变化。

表5 各湖泊在两个时段内的水位及面积的变化 Tab. 5 The changes of area and lake level of the five lakes during the periods of 1972-1999 and 2000-2012

4.2 突变检测

由于水位与面积的相关性, 选择其中一个因子作为判断变化的指标就可以反映所对应湖泊的变化; 对五个湖泊进行标准化处理, 观察湖泊的水位变化曲线 (图4), 各个湖泊呈现出不同的变化趋势：1990年后, 湖泊的水位波动较剧烈, 因此进行突变的的检验与趋势的判断, 确定具体湖泊发生突变的时间。

从玛旁雍错与佩枯错在过去的40年水位数据的变化曲线的趋势与交点(图4b, c)可看出, 在1976-2012年整个序列, 两个湖泊水位都是下降的, 下降的趋势尤其是2000年后显著, 甚至超过显著水平0.01的临界线 (-2.56)。但相比与整个时间序列, 2000-2012年的水位均低于平均水位, 而1999年前的都在平均水位之上, 说明1999年后的水位下降的幅度要大于1999年之前, 从图中也可看出, 1999年为玛旁雍错水位数据发生的突变的时间点, 2001年为佩枯错的突变时间点。

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	图4 五个湖泊水位数据突变检验Fig. 4 The change points results using MK test for lake level

MK趋势检验也表明, 普莫雍错在1999年后, 上升的趋势超过显著性水位为0.05的临界 (1.96), 甚至超过了0.01的水平 (2.56), 说明水位上升的趋势十分显著, 而在1999年之前, 普莫雍错的水位的浮动并不明显, 水位虽在增加, 但都小于平均水位, 远不及1999年后的变化剧烈, 通过突变检验的结果, 突变点在1999年附近, 证实了上述的推断。

不同于普莫雍错在过去40年后持续上升的状态, 扎日南木错与塔若错都呈现出先上升, 再下降后上升的趋势, 从MK检验的结果可分析得：在1999前, 水位有小范围的增长, 而从1999年开始, 出现了明显的波动, 两个湖泊先后出现水位的下降, 最低水位分别达到4613.03 m, 和4565.63 m, 低于平均水位0.26 m和1.84 m, 但塔若错在2007年后水位又开始升高, 同时, 扎日南木错在06年冬季出现了上升的趋势。比较突变点的结果, 塔若错在2006年开始发生突变; 扎日南木错出现多个突变点, 最早的开始与1998年, 说明在1998年后, 水位的起伏变化较剧烈。以上事实说明, 1999年后, 扎日南木错与塔若错波动比1999之前更剧烈。

4.3 空间变化

根据1972-2012年标准化后的水位数据, 对五个湖泊的变化趋势做了分析, 相关系数选用person系数, 从空间分析结果看 (表6), 扎日南木错与塔若错位于羌塘高原的南部, 属于羌塘高寒草原半干旱气候, 两个湖泊在40年 (1972-2012) 内水位数据都出现上升, 只是扎日南木错因其流域面积较大, 上升的幅度更大 (图3), 而且相关性结果 (表6) 表明扎日南木错与塔若错的水位变化也出现明显的正相关, 相关系数为0.83, 显著性水平为0.01; 而位于青藏高原边缘地区的佩枯错, 玛旁雍错, 在整个时段内水位都呈现出持续下降的趋势, 1999年后水位下降的速度更快 (图3), 分析结果也显示玛旁雍错与佩枯错的水位变化为高度正相关, 显著性水平高达0.01, 说明二者之间有相同的变化趋势。

表6 青藏高原藏东南部湖泊水位间的相关性结果 Tab. 6 The correlation of lake level among the five lakes on the southeastern TP

5 讨论

5.1 水位序列重建的可行性

本文的水位序列是利用已有数据, 依据相对应的面积数据与水位数据, 拟合方程, 建立面积与高程之间的关系式, 得到了方程的系数, 最终反演出189景面积数据对应的水位值。因Landsat提供的面积数据日期与ICESat提供的水位数据的日期相同或相对应的较少, 最多的一个湖泊只有5景, 无法直接建立回归方程, 而MODIS一年共有46景, 涵盖春夏秋冬, 因此可利用MODIS提供的面积数据为桥梁, 建立Landsat的面积数据与ICESat水位数据的方程, 进而反演出水位序列。反演之前, 分析相近日期MODIS面积数据与ICESat的水位数据, 结果表明各个湖泊的水位面积变化趋势一致, 且趋势已通过95%的显著性水平, 建立的回归方程的参数也已通过显著性水平的检验, 说明回归方程是可行的; 再分析相近日期的Landsat, MODIS提供的面积数据, 虽面积值不同, 但两者变化趋势相同, 且显著相关 (a = 0.05), 建立出MODIS与Landsat面积数据的回归方程, 各项系数的显著性水平为95%。综上所述, 在现有的数据获取条件下, 获取的水位序列可以满足分析的需要。

5.2 湖泊水位变化原因探讨

为了探讨湖泊水位变化与降水, 气温的关系, 本文收集了研究区内1981-2008年湖泊流域气象资料^{[23, 24]} (来源于中国区域高时空分辨率地面气象要素驱动数据集), 并根据资料分别计算流域内站点年降水与年均气温的均值, 以及降水累计距平与气温距平。玛旁雍错, 佩枯错, 普莫雍错, 扎日南木错, 塔若错流域从1981-2008年来的多年降水均值为127.94 mm, 542.96 mm, 367.31 mm, 238.97 mm, 和269.08 mm。降水累计距平结果显示, 相比于上一时段1981-2000年, 玛旁雍错与佩枯错流域在2001-2012年的降水累计距平比分别减少了138.36 mm, 337.11 mm, 而普莫雍错流域的降水累计距平却增加了202.16 mm, 扎日南木错累计距平增加了422.74 mm, 塔若错虽下降157.26 mm, 但该湖泊的主要补给来源是冰雪融水; 从气温变化来看, 研究区内五个典型湖泊在1981-2008年近30年都呈现增温趋势, 且在2000年后, 温度的变化最大。尤其近十年来, 部分湖泊中来自降水的补给正在逐年下降, 导致湖泊的水位发生波动, 此外, 气温的增加, 导致蒸发量增大, 冰川融水的增加, 都会导致湖泊水位的变动。Yang K等^[12]研究发现, 1980-2000年, 青藏高原中部地区降水和蒸发都呈上升的趋势, 而径流有微弱的减少, 位于中部地区的湖泊补给方式除降水外, 还有冰雪融水, 虽潜在蒸发量在增加, 但近年来冰川末端的加快消融形成的径流^{[25, 26, 27]}, 使湖泊的水位不断上升^{[28, 29, 30, 31]}, 如扎日南木错与塔若错; 青藏高原的南部边缘地带, 由于温室效应的作用, 降雨量减少而潜在蒸发量增加^[12]; 位于青藏高原边缘地带的湖泊虽也存在冰川融水的补给, 但有的湖泊面积较小, 只是春季时补给的较为明显, 全年主要还是依靠降水的补给^[32] , 因此, 水位呈现明显的下降, 如佩枯错与玛旁雍错。吴绍洪等^[31]也明确指出, 青藏高原近30年来气候变化的总体特征是气温呈上升趋势, 降水呈增加趋势, 最大可能蒸散呈降低趋势, 大多数地区的干湿状况是由干向湿发展的趋势。由此可见, 湖泊的水位变化受多种原因影响。

6 结论

本文对研究区的五个湖泊：玛旁雍错, 普莫雍错, 佩枯错, 塔若错, 扎日南木错, 1972-2012年的水位的动态变化做了研究。主要结论如下：

(1) 在1972-2012年期间, 不同湖泊呈现出不同的年际变化特征, 普莫雍错, 塔若错, 扎日南木错在整个序列内都呈现出湖面水位高程值的上升, 水位的升高0.89 m, 0.70 m, 0.40 m, 面积分别升高了6.62 km², 3.63 km², 36.97 km²; 佩枯错与玛旁雍错的水位下降了1.70 m, 0.70 m, 面积降低了9.46 km², 5.36 km²;

(2) 1999年之后, 五个湖泊水位高程与面积的变化要比1999年之前的将近30年变化更剧烈, 佩枯错与玛旁雍错在2000-2012年, 面积的变化率为-0.21 km²/a, -0.23 km²/a, 且水位与面积的变化速率是1976-1999年的大约两倍; 扎日南木错与塔若错的水位与面积在2000年之前, 一直呈现平稳的上升与扩张状态, 而2000年后, 水位分别低于平均水位0.26 m和1.84 m, 又先后在2006之后开始上升;

(3) 空间的相关性分析结果表明, 位于青藏高原边缘地带的佩枯错与玛旁雍错的变化一致, 水位均呈下降趋势, 而且变化呈现显著相关, 相关系数达0.75, 而位于中部的扎日南木错与塔若错的变化呈现显著正相关, 相关系数达0.83, 且水位在过去的40年内呈现上升趋势。根据相关资料分析表明, 湖泊波动受到气候变化的深刻影响。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

参考文献

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2005

1.616

0.0

... ^[1]和#cod#x0201c ...

2008

0.0

Qiu

China: The Third Pole.

Nature News, 2008, 454(7203): 393-396.

Nature - the world's best science and medicine on your desktop

... ^[2]之称,其环境变化对全球变化具有敏感效应与强烈影响^[3] ...

2006

0.0

1.388

Yao

Tand ong

, Zhu Liping

The response of environmental changes on Tibetan Plateau to global changes an adaptation strategy.

Advances in Earth Science, 2006, 21(5): 459-464.

[姚檀栋, 朱立平. 青藏高原环境变化对全球变化的响应及其适应对策. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(5): 459-464. ]

The environmental changes of Tibetan Plateau possess sensitive response and strong effect to global changes. The interaction between modern environment and land surface processes on the plateau induces a series of variations in the cryosphere, water resources and ecological system, which produce important influence on the human living circumstance and economic-society development on the plateau itself and periphery regions. As a region focused by international scientific research, the plateau experienced three developing stages. The first is focusing the systemic studies of the key problems in the key areas, the second is focusing the monitoring studies centered with surface processes, and the third is focusing the interactions among different spheres influenced by global changes. This project possesses very important significance to the study of environmental changes on Tibetan Plateau and the contribution for international scientific frontier as well as local economics-society development. In this project, a series of objectives are planned to be achieved: discovering key tectonic and environmental events from the plateau's formation to its present landform structures; reconstructing climatic and environmental sequences with different time scales in different areas and clarifying their space-time features; elucidating the variation characteristics of cryosphere, lakes, dominant ecosystems and land covers under different climatic conditions on the plateau; revealing the responses of the environmental changes and land surface processes of the plateau to global changes, and the effects of the plateau's thermo and dynamical processes to different climatic systems. Some methods and contents are performed in this project: By using geomorphologic and sedimentary methods, we study the formation processes of present landform and environment frames. By collecting lake cores, ice cores and tree rings, we study key events during the past environment changes and their linkages to global changes. By analyzing the space-time variations of glaciers, permafrost and snow accumulations together with observation of boundary layers, we study the variations of cryosphere and cycling processes of energy and water. By monitoring the glaciers, lakes and atmosphere together with using climatic models, we study the potential mechanism of environmental changes. By detecting the variations of carbon sources and sinks in the dominant ecosystems, we study the response of the main ecosystem to environmental changes. By a series of integrated analyses, we study the effects of the environmental changes and water sources changes on the Tibetan Plateau and adaptation strategies under global changes.

1.Institute of Tibetan Plateau, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085,China;2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101,China

青藏高原的环境变化对全球变化具有敏感响应和强烈影响。青藏高原的现代环境与地表过程相互作用，引起包括冰冻圈和水资源以及生态系统等方面的一系列变化，对高原本身以及周边地区的人类生存环境和经济社会发展产生重大影响。作为国际研究的热点地区，青藏高原环境变化研究目前出现三个新的科学动向：关注关键地区的关键科学问题的系统研究；关注以现代地表过程为核心的监测研究；关注全球变化影响下的圈层相互作用研究。本项目的研究对青藏高原环境变化科学的发展、国际科学前沿的贡献以及服务于社会经济发展，都具有十分重要的意义。通过项目的研究将揭示青藏高原隆升到现代地貌与环境格局过程中所出现的重大构造事件和环境事件；重建不同区域、不同时间尺度的气候环境变化序列并揭示其时空分布特征；阐明青藏高原冰冻圈、湖泊和主要生态系统与土地覆被在不同气候条件下的变化特征；揭示青藏高原环境变化与地表过程对全球变化的响应特点和高原热力与动力过程对不同气候系统变化的影响。本项目将在高原南北典型区域利用地貌学与沉积学手段，研究青藏高原现代地貌与环境格局的形成过程；利用湖芯、冰芯、树木年轮等手段，研究青藏高原过去环境变化的特征事件、区域分异及其与全球变化的联系；利用冰川、冻土、积雪的时空变化，结合对高原特殊大气边界层的观测，研究青藏高原冰冻圈变化与能量水分循环过程；从冰川、湖泊、大气的监测入手，结合模式方法，研究青藏高原环境变化的机制；利用生态系统碳的源—汇变化，研究青藏高原生态系统对环境变化的响应；综合研究全球变化背景下青藏高原环境变化与水资源变化所产生的区域效应和适应对策。

... ^[2]之称,其环境变化对全球变化具有敏感效应与强烈影响^[3] ...

1998

0.0

... 4%^[4] ...

2010

0.0

0.95

Zhu

, Xie

, Wu

Quantitative analysis of lake area variations and the influence factors from 1971 to 2004 in the Nam Co basin of the Tibetan Plateau.

Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010, 55(13): 1294-1303.

1. Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes & Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China 3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China 2. Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China

By using remote sensing and GIS technologies, spatial analysis and statistic analysis, we calculated the water area and volume variations of the Nam Co Lake from 1971–2004, and discussed their influence factors from the viewpoints of climatic change and water balance. Data source in this study includes bathymetric data of the lake, aerial surveyed topographic maps of 1970, remote sensing images of 1991 and 2004 in the lake catchment, meteorological data from 17 stations within 1971–2004 in the adjacent area of the lake catchment. The results showed that the lake area expanded from 1920 km 2 to 2015 km 2 during 1971 to 2004 with the mean annual increasing rate (MAIR) of 2.81 km 2 a −1 , and the lake volume augmented from 783.23×10 8 m 3 to 863.77×10 8 m 3 with the MAIR of 2.37×10 8 m 3 . Moreover, the MAIR of the lake area and volume are both higher during 1992 to 2004 (4.01 km 2 a −1 and 3.61×10 8 m 3 a −1 ) than those during 1971 to 1991 (2.06 km 2 a −1 and 1.60×10 8 m 3 a −1 ). Analyses of meteorological data indicated that the continue rising of air temperature conduced more glacier melting water. This part of water supply, together with the increasing precipitation and the descending evaporation, contributed to the enlargement of Nam Co Lake. The roughly water balance analyses of lake water volume implied that, in two study periods (1971–1991 and 1992–2004), the precipitation supplies (direct precipitations on the lake area and stream flow derived from precipitations) accounted for 63% and 61.92% of the whole supplies, while the glacier melting water supplies occupied only 8.55% and 11.48%, respectively. This showed that precipitations were main water supplies of the Nam Co Lake. However, for the reason of lake water increasing, the increased amount from precipitations accounted for 46.67% of total increased water supplies, while the increased amount from glacier melting water reached 52.86% of total increased water supplies. The ratio of lake evaporation and lake volume augment showed that 95.71% of total increased water supplies contributed to the augment of lake volume. Therefore, the increased glacier melting water accounted for about 50.6% of augment of the lake volume, which suggested that the increased glacier melting water was the main reason for the quickly enlargement of the Nam Co lake under the continuous temperature rising.

... 近年来,在全球变暖的大背景下,湖泊水位出现了明显的变化,与气候变化和冰川退缩之间存在着紧密的内在联系^[5],而且对人类环境产生了十分明显的影响^[6] ...

... 已有一些学者针对湖泊多年的水位变化开展了研究,如纳木错^{[5, 7]},色林错^[8],兹格塘错^[9,10],羊卓雍错^[11]等,分析较长时间内对青藏高原气候变化的响应,揭示湖泊的变化规律与特征,并且试从水量平衡的角度揭示影响湖泊变化的主要因素^[12,13]而青藏高原广大无资料地区长时间序列的湖泊水位变化一直是空白 ...

0.0

Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change2007. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds of judgements that must be made in order for such a prediction to be consistent with the probability calculus. The climate model is seen as a tool for making probabilistic statements about climate itself, necessarily involving an assessment of the model’s imperfections. A climate event, such as a 2 ^ C increase in global mean temperature, is identified with a region of ‘climate-space’, and the ensemble of model evaluations is used within a numerical integration designed to estimate the probability assigned to that region.

1.University of Durham, Science Site Department of Mathematical Sciences Stockton Road Durham DH1 3LE UK Stockton Road Durham DH1 3LE UK

2007

0.0

2.937

Yanhong

, Zhu

Liping

, Ye

Qinghua

et al. The response of lake-glacier area change on climate variation in Namco Basin. Central Tibetan Plateau during the last three decades. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2007, 62(3): 301-311.

[吴艳红, 朱立平, 叶庆华等. 纳木错流域近30年来湖泊-冰川变化对气候的响应. 地理学报, 2007, 62(3): 301-311. ]

Based upon the 1970 aero-photo topographic map and TM/ETM satellite images taken in 1976, 1991 and 2000, the authors artificially interpret boundary of lake water and glaciers and calculate their areas in different stages with the support of GIS. Results show that from 1970 to 2000, lake area increased from 1941.64 km 2 to 1979.79 km 2 with a rate of 1.27 km 2 /a, while glacier area decreased from 167.62 km 2 to 141.88 km 2 with a rate of 0.86 km 2 /a. The increased rate of lake area in 1991-2000 was 1.76 km 2 /a that was faster than 1.03 km 2 /a in 1970-1991, while in the same period of time, the shrinking rates of glaciers area were 0.97 km 2 /a and 0.80 km 2 /a respectively. Climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, maximum possible evaporation and their values in warm seasons and cold seasons over the past 30 years are analyzed with linkage of the lake and glaciers variations. The results suggest that temperature increasing is the main reason for accelerated melting of glaciers. Lake area enlargement is mainly induced from the increase of glacier melting water, while slight increase of precipitation and obvious decrease of evaporation are also important factors. Regional precipitation and evaporation and their linkages with lake area enlargement need to be thoroughly studied under the global warming and glaciers retreating.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China; 3. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, Beijing 100085, China; 4. College of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, China

利用1970 航测地形图和1991、2000 年两期卫星影像数据, 人工建立数字高程模型 (DEM), 解译不同时期的湖泊、冰川边界, 在GIS 技术支持下采用图谱的方法, 定量分析了湖泊、冰川的面积变化情况。结果表明, 自1970~2000 年期间, 纳木错湖面面积从1941.64 km 2 增加到1979.79 km 2 , 增加的速率为1.27 km 2 /a; 流域内冰川的面积从167.62 km 2 减少到141.88 km 2 , 退缩速率为0.86 km 2 /a。其中, 湖面面积在1991~2000 年的增加速率为1.76 km 2 /a, 明显大于其在1970~1991 年的1.03 km 2 /a; 而冰川面积在1991~2000 年的退缩速率为 0.97 km 2 /a, 明显大于其在1970~1991 年的0.80 km 2 /a。对比该流域前后两个时期的气温、降水和蒸发变化, 发现升温幅度的增加是冰川加速退缩的根本原因, 而湖面的加速扩张主要受冰川的加剧退缩及其引起的融水增加影响, 但与区域降水量略微增加和蒸发量显著减少也具有密切联系。区域降水增加和蒸发减少及其与湖面扩张之间的内在联系仍是一个需要深入探讨的问题。

2012

0.0

0.95

2009

3.155

0.0

Liu

, Wang

, Yu

et al. Climate warming and growth of high-elevation inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Global and Planetary Change, 2009, 67(3): 209-217.

2013

2.964

0.0

Lei

, Yao

, Bird

B W

et al. Coherent lake growth on the central Tibetan Plateau since the 1970s: Characterization and attribution. Journal of Hydrology, 2013, 483: 61-67.

2007

2.882

0.0

2011

3.634

0.0

Yang

, Ye

, Zhou

et al. Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic change, 2011, 109(3/4): 517-534.

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP) surfaces have been experiencing an overall rapid warming and wetting while wind speed and solar radiation have been declining in the last three decades. This study investigated how climate changes influenced the hydrological cycle on the TP during 1984∼2006. To facilitate the analysis, a land surface model was used to simulate surface water budget at all CMA (China Meteorological Administration) stations on the TP. The simulated results were first validated against observed ground temperature and observation-derived heat flux on the western TP and observed discharge trends on the eastern TP. The response of evaporation and runoff to the climate changes was then analyzed. Major finding are as follows. (1) Surface water balance has been changed in recent decades. Observed precipitation shows insignificant increasing trends in central TP and decreasing trends along the TP periphery while evaporation shows overall increasing trends, leading to decreased discharge at major TP water resource areas (semi-humid and humid zones in the eastern and southern TP). (2) At the annual scale, evaporation is water-limited in dry areas and energy-limited (radiation and air temperature) in wet areas; these constraints can be interpreted by the Budyko-curve. Evaporation in autumns and winters was strongly controlled by soil water storage in summers, weakening the dependence of evaporation on precipitation at seasonal scales. (3) There is a complementary effect between the simulated actual evaporation and potential evaporation, but this complementary relationship may deviate from Bouchet’s hypothesis when vapor pressure deficit (or air temperature) is too low, which suppresses the power of vapor transfer.

1. Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 2871, Beijing, 100085, China 2. The State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China 3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P. O. Box 9804, Beijing, 100029, China 4. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China 5. Department of Micrometeorology, University of Bayreuth, 95440, Bayreuth, Germany

... Yang K等^[12]研究发现,1980-2000年,青藏高原中部地区降水和蒸发都呈上升的趋势,而径流有微弱的减少,位于中部地区的湖泊补给方式除降水外,还有冰雪融水,虽潜在蒸发量在增加,但近年来冰川末端的加快消融形成的径流^[25,26,27],使湖泊的水位不断上升^{[28,29,30,31]},如扎日南木错与塔若错 ...

... 青藏高原的南部边缘地带,由于温室效应的作用,降雨量减少而潜在蒸发量增加^[12] ...

2011

2.964

0.0

Zhang

, Wu

, Zhu

et al. Estimation and trend detection of water storage at Nam Co Lake, central Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Hydrology, 2011, 405(1): 161-170.

2011

0.0

... 其中,ICESat数据因其较高的精度与准确性^[14],已经被广泛用于内陆湖泊水位变化的研究中^[15,16],Zhang G等^[16]利用ICESat数据监测了2003-2009年期间青藏高原湖泊的水位动态变化 ...

2013

0.0

0.95

Zhang

Guoqing

, Yao

Tand ong

, Kang

Shichang

et al.

Water balance estimates of ten greatest lakes in China using ICESat and Land sat data.

Chinese Science Bulletin, 2013, 58(26): 2664-2678.

[张国庆, 姚檀栋, 康世昌等. 基于ICESat和Land sat的中国十大湖泊水量平衡估算. 科学通报, 2013, 58(26): 2664-2678. ]

湖面高程与面积变化对区域气候变化响应敏感, 二者结合可用来估算湖泊水量平衡. 本研究利用ICESat 和Landsat 数据, 对中国最大的10 个湖泊2003~2009 年的高程、面积和体积变化进行了研究. 结果表明, 青藏高原地区色林错、纳木错、青海湖和中国东北的兴凯湖显示出湖面高程增加, 色林错为10 个湖泊中水面高程(0.69 m/a)、面积(32.59 km 2 /a)和体积(1.25 km 3 /a)升高最快的湖泊; 中国北部干旱和半干旱地区的博斯腾湖和呼伦湖表现了湖面高程与面积的下降, 博斯腾湖则显示了最快的湖面高程下降(-0.43 m/a), 呼伦湖面积收缩最大(-35.56 km 2 /a). 长江中下游地区的洞庭湖、鄱阳湖、太湖和洪泽湖湖面高程与面积则呈现出明显的季节变化, 但总的变化趋势不明显. 色林错、纳木错、青海湖、鄱阳湖、呼伦湖和博斯腾湖的湖面高程与面积表现出高的相关性( R 2 >0.80), 太湖、洪泽湖和兴凯湖相关性中等( R 2 ≈0.70), 东洞庭湖相关性较小( R 2 =0.37).所有湖泊的高程变化与体积变化表现出较高的相关性( R 2 >0.98). 根据湖泊高程与面积变化, 对其水量平衡进行了估算, 色林错、纳木错、青海湖和兴凯湖表现出正平衡, 分别为9.08, 4.07, 2.88和1.09 km 3 ; 博斯腾湖和呼伦湖则显示出负平衡, 分别为-3.01 和-4.73 km 3 . 另外, 根据湖面高程变化的特点, 选择湖面升高、下降和无明显趋势的代表性湖泊, 对其变化的原因进行了分析. 此研究表明, 可利用遥感卫星数据快速有效地估算湖泊的水量平衡.

... ICESat卫星于2003年1月13日升空,是首颗激光高度计卫星,星上装载一台GLAS (激光高度计),地面垂直分辨率可达10 cm,水平分辨率为170 m^[15] ...

... 2 长时间湖泊水位序列构建方法本研究中水位数据来源于ICESat/GLA14卫星数据资料,获取后对序列的异常值进行剔除^[15]形成2003-2009年研究区各个湖泊的水位序列 ...

2011

5.103

0.0

Zhang

, Xie

, Kang

et al.

Monitoring lake level changes on the Tibetan Plateau using ICESat altimetry data (2003-2009).

Remote Sensing of Environment, 2011, 115(7): 1733-1742.

2011

0.0

0.992

Junli.

Automatic extraction of Himalayan glacial lakes with remote sensing.

Journal of Remote Sensing, 2011, 15(1): 29-43.

[李均力. 喜马拉雅山地区冰湖信息的遥感自动化提取. 遥感学报, 2011, 15(1): 29-43. ]

The paper develops an automatic lake delineation algorithm based on “global-local” iterative scheme. The author uses NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) as the water identification index for the threshold segmentation process, and the slope maps and the shaded relief maps are applied in the algorithm to differentiate the shadow features from water features.Based on these methods, an automatic lakes delineation scheme is proposed to map the glacial lakes with Landsat Imagery inHimalayas mountains area. The results show that the proposed algorithm has good performance on lake mapping over themountain areas, and lakes can be extracted automatically, accurately and efficiently, while most of melting glaciers and hillshadow features are eliminated from the segmentation processing.

在“全域―局部”分步迭代水体信息提取方法的基础上, 通过对水体信息提取指标――水体指数的物理特性的分析实现了算法中全域阈值的自动选择与局部阈值的自适应调整, 并结合DEM 生成的山体坡度和阴影信息,减少局部迭代过程中对其他地表特征与水体信息的误判。在此基础上, 建立一种适合于高山地区冰川湖泊的自动化提取方案。试验采用Landsat 数据对喜马拉雅山地区的冰川湖泊进行信息提取, 结果表明该方法能够快速准确地完成大区域范围内的冰川湖泊制图, 并能最大程度地消除高山地区湖泊水体识别中冰川和山体阴影的影响。

... 1 湖泊面积提取方法本次提取湖泊面积的方法是自动化阈值选取^[17],用Landsat卫星数据与MODIS卫星数据的作为数据源,对水体与陆地像元进行分割 ...

... 分割思想,以图像直方图中,水体与陆地区域呈现双峰分布,而非水体区域呈单峰分布作为阈值分割的依据^[17] ...

... 先以最小阈值作为初始阈值大致确定水体边界,再根据每个水体,通过公式 (2) 计算出不同阈值,精确划分水体边界,通过IDL平台,基于Landsat与MODIS数据,最终自动提取青藏高原主要湖泊的边界信息^[17]（图2） ...

1996

0.0

... 目前,常见的水体指数有：NDWI^[18]、MNDWI^[19]、EWI^[20]、NWI^[21],本方法采用归#cod#x02014 ...

2005

0.0

0.992

Hanqiu.

A study on information extraction of water body with the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI).

Journal of Remote Sensing, 2005, 9(5): 589-595.

[徐涵秋. 利用改进的归一化差异水体指数 (MNDWI) 提取水体信息的研究. 遥感学报, 2005, 9(5): 589-595. ]

A modified normalized difference water index(MNDWI) has been proposed in this paper based on the normalized difference water index(NDWI) of Mcfeeters (1966), which uses MIR(TM5) instead of NIR(TM4) to construct the MNDWI. The MNDWI has been tested in the ocean, lake and river areas with the background of built-up lands and/or vegetated lands, and with both clean and polluted water bodies using Landsat TM/ETM imagery. This reveals that the MNDWI can significantly enhance the water information, especially in the area mainly with built-up land as background. The MNDWI can depress the built-up land information effectively while highlighting water information, and accurately extract the water body information from the study areas. While the enhanced water information using the NDWI always has been mixed with built-up land noise and the area of a water body extracted based on the index is thus overestimated. Therefore, the NDWI is not suitable for enhancing and extracting water information in built-up land-dominated areas. Furthermore, the MNDWI can reveal subtle features of water more efficiently than the NDWI or other visible spectral bands do due largely to its wider dynamic data range. The application of the MNDWI in the Xiamen image has achieved an excellent result. The MNDWI image successfully reveals significant non-point pollution of the water surrounding the Xiamen Island due to agricultural activities. In addition, taking the advantage of the ratio computation, the MNDWI can remove shadow noise from water information without using sophisticated procedures, which is otherwise difficult to be removed.

在对M cfeeters提出的归一化差异水体指数(NDWI)分析的基础上,对构成该指数的波长组合进行了修改,提出了改进的归一化差异水体指数MNDWI(M odified NDWI),并分别将该指数在含不同水体类型的遥感影像进行了实验,大部分获得了比NDWI好的效果,特别是提取城镇范围内的水体。NDWI指数影像因往往混有城镇建筑用地信息而使得提取的水体范围和面积有所扩大。实验还发现MNDWI比NDWI更能够揭示水体微细特征,如悬浮沉积物的分布、水质的变化。另外,MNDWI可以很容易地区分阴影和水体,解决了水体提取中难于消除阴影的难题。

... 目前,常见的水体指数有：NDWI^[18]、MNDWI^[19]、EWI^[20]、NWI^[21],本方法采用归#cod#x02014 ...

2007

0.0

0.7

Yan

Pei.

A study on information extraction of water system in semi-arid regions with the Enhanced Water Index (EWI) and GIS based noise remove techniques.

Remote Sensing Information, 2007, (6): 62-67.

[闫霈. 利用增强型水体指数 (EWI) 和GIS去噪音技术提取半干旱地区水系信息的研究. 遥感信息, 2007, (6): 62-67. ]

准确提取流域水系信息是进行水资源开发利用的首要任务.利用NDWI和MNDWI提取半干旱地区水系,无法有效的区分水系内的半干涸河道与背景噪音.本文在分析半干旱地区水系与背景噪音反射特点的基础上,提出了增强型水体指数EWI(Enhanced Water Index),有效地区分了半干涸河道与背景噪音.在利用形状指数去噪音方法的基础上,使用GIS技术去除背景噪音,弥补了形状指数去噪音方法的缺陷,更好的去除了水系提取过程中混入的背景噪音.综合使用上述两种方法,可以快速、准确、简便地提取出半干旱地区的水系.为此类地区水资源的开发利用打下了基础.

... 目前,常见的水体指数有：NDWI^[18]、MNDWI^[19]、EWI^[20]、NWI^[21],本方法采用归#cod#x02014 ...

2009

0.0

0.749

Ding

Feng.

A new method for fast information extraction of water bodies using remotely sensed data.

Remote Sensing Technology and Application, 2009, 24(2): 167-171.

[丁凤. 一种基于遥感数据快速提取水体信息的新方法. 遥感技术与应用, 2009, 24(2): 167-171. ]

The construction of digital watershed plays an important role in the modernization process of water resources management and utilization in China.Using remote sensing technology to extract water information has become a significant way of providing data resources for digital watershed construction.In this paper,the unique characteristics of water bodies' simultaneous strong absorption at near and middle infrared bands (corresponding to the Band 4,Band 5 and Band 7 of Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery,respectively) has been revealed by a careful study of spectral features of water bodies with different surrounding land use/cover types,and based on that,a new water index (NWI) for water information extraction has been proposed.The new index distinguishes itself from other conventional water indexes by its usage of Band 7 of Landsat data which has rarely been reported in the literature.Using a ETM+ image acquired on March 4,2001 (path 119,row 43) and taking Xiamen Island as study area,the NWI,with atmospheric correction,has been tested in the reservoir,lake,sea and cage culture areas with various backgrounds.The overall accuracy of the water information extraction result reaches 90.4%.Therefore,it can be concluded that the NWI is effective in quickly and accurately extracting water information using remotely sensed data.

(1.School of Geographical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China|2.College of Environment and Resources,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China)

“数字流域”建设已成为水利现代化的重要组成部分。利用遥感技术进行水体信息提取可为构建数字流域提供重要的数据来源。在对Landsat ETM+影像上的水体及其背景地物进行光谱特征分析的基础上，发现水体在近红外和中红外波段（对应于Landsat数据的Band 4、Band 5和Band 7）同时具有强吸收这一典型特征，据此提出了一种新型的水体指数NWI（New Water Index）。其中，将Band 7用于水体指数模型的构建和水体信息的提取目前较少见于文献报道。以厦门岛为研究区，将该指数在经过大气校正的遥感影像上进行实验的结果表明：NWI可用于水体信息的快速有效提取，且具有较高的精度。

... 目前,常见的水体指数有：NDWI^[18]、MNDWI^[19]、EWI^[20]、NWI^[21],本方法采用归#cod#x02014 ...

2011

0.0

2011

0.0

... 2 湖泊水位变化原因探讨为了探讨湖泊水位变化与降水,气温的关系,本文收集了研究区内1981-2008年湖泊流域气象资料^[23,24] (来源于中国区域高时空分辨率地面气象要素驱动数据集),并根据资料分别计算流域内站点年降水与年均气温的均值,以及降水累计距平与气温距平 ...

2007

2.552

0.0

Chen

, Cui

, Li

et al. Changes in glacial lakes and glaciers of post-1986 in the Poiqu River basin, Nyalam, Xizang (Tibet). Geomorphology, 2007, 88(3): 298-311.

2008

2.882

0.0

2007

1.429

0.0

2007

2.259

0.0

, Xu

, Sun

et al. Lake-level change and water balance analysis at Lake Qinghai, west China during recent decades. Water Resources Management, 2007, 21(9): 1505-1516.

Lake Qinghai, the largest saline lake with an area of 4,260 km 2 (2000) and average depth of 21 m (1985) in West China, has experienced severe decline in water level in recent decades. This study aimed to investigate water balance of the lake and identify the causes for the decline in lake level. There was a 3.35-m decline in water level with an average decreasing rate of 8.0 cm year −1 between 1959 and 2000. The lake water balance showed that mean annual precipitation between 1959 and 2000 over the lake was 357 ± 10 mm, evaporation was 924 ± 10 mm, surface runoff water inflow was 348 ± 21 mm, groundwater inflow was 138 mm ± 9 and the change in lake level was −80 ± 31 mm. The variation of lake level was highly positively correlated to surface runoff and precipitation and negatively to evaporation, the correlation coefficients were 0.89, 0.81 and −0.66, respectively. Water consumption by human activities accounts for 1% of the evaporation loss of the lake, implying that water consumption by human activities has little effect on lake level decline. Most dramatic decline in lake level occurred in the warm and dry years, and moderate decline in the cold and dry years, and relatively slight decline in the warm and wet years, therefore, the trend of cold/warm and dry climate in recent decades may be the main reasons for the decline in lake level.

1.Beijing Normal University The Key Lab of Environment Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education Beijing 100875 China 2.Beijing Normal University Institute of Land Resources Beijing 100875 China 3.Beijing Normal University College of Resources Science and Technology Beijing 100875 China

2010

0.0

Xie

, Ye

, Liu

et al. Warming and drying trends on the Tibetan Plateau (1971-2005). Theoretical and applied climatology, 2010, 101(3/4): 241-253.

Annual and seasonal trends in maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) were examined with the goal of understanding trends in temperature and moisture across the Tibetan Plateau, using meteorological data (1971–2005) collected at 63 stations. Trends in pan evaporation (PE; 1971–2001, 68 stations) and runoff (1971–2002) in the headwater of the Yellow River were also analysed. Positive trends in maximum and minimum temperatures were observed across the Tibetan Plateau. The highest increases were observed during winter, with results from the majority of stations statistically significant at the 95% level. A decrease trend in diurnal temperature range (DTR) was also observed. Trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and VPD were positive, while the trend in PE was negative. However, the increase in precipitation was not as pronounced as the increase in temperature. Although PE decreased during the time series, actual evaporation probably increased because of the warming across the Tibetan Plateau, where the annual potential water loss measured as PE is three to four times the annual water supply by precipitation. Warming was expected to increase evapotranspiration, causing more water vapour to escape into the atmosphere, thus counteracting or even exceeding the slight increase in precipitation. The increases in annual and seasonal VPD trends indicated a drying tendency and were further substantiated by the observed decrease in runoff in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River. The results provided insight into recent climatic changes across the Tibetan Plateau.

1.Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (MOE), College of Earth and Environmental Science, Lanzhou University, No. 222 South Tianshui Road, Lanzhou, 730000 China 2.Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Arid and Grassland Ecology, College of Life Science, Lanzhou University, No. 222 South Tianshui Road, Lanzhou, 730000 China

2007

0.0

1.301

Kang

, Chen

, Ye

et al. Glacier retreating dramatically on the Mt. Nyainqentanglha during the last 40 years. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2007, 29(6): 869-873.

During the expeditions to Mt. Nyainqêntanglha in the summer of 1999 and 2007,glacier termini had been surveyed using GPS technology for five glaciers around the mount.Comparing the terminus positions surveyed by the two GPS with those surveyed in 1970 reveal that five glaciers have retreated since 1970.The retreat rate of glacier termini is around 10.0 m·a -1 for the Lanong and Zhadang Glaciers in the northern slopes of the mount and the Panu Glacier in the southern slope during 1970-2007.However,retreat of the Xibu Glacier is dramatic with a rate of 38.9 m·a -1 ,while a small high-elevation glacier (5O270C0049) in the Panu basin has a low retreat rate of 4.8 m·a -1 .A stream was observed in the 1970’s firn basin of the Panu Glacier,indicating that not only the glacier termini are retreating dramatically but also the ablation areas are expanding around the mount.

1. Nam Co Monitoring and Research Station for Multispheric Interactions, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, Beijing 100085, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, CAREERI CAS, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China

1999年和2007年夏季,利用GPS技术先后对念青唐古拉峰(念峰)南、北坡的5条冰川末端位置进行了实地测量.结果表明:同1970年比较发现,过去近40 a来5条冰川退缩显著,1970-2007年间念峰北坡的拉弄和扎当冰川与南坡的爬努冰川末端平均退缩速率均接近10.0 m·a -1 ;西布冰川在1970-1999年间达到38.9 m·a -1 ,而爬努冰川流域海拔较高的小冰川5O270C0049退缩幅度较小,为4.8 m·a -1 .2007年野外观测发现,爬努冰川1970年代的积累区有冰面河形成.念峰周围的冰川变化,不仅仅是末端的显著退缩,而且消融区面积也在扩大.

2000

2.886

0.0

Liu

, Chen

Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades.

International Journal of Climatology, 2000, 20(14): 1729-1742.

1 Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China 2 Lanzhou Institute of Plateau Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China 3 Universities Space Research Association, Seabrook, MD, USA * Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, 405 Hilgard Ave., Los Angeles, CA 90095-1656, USA

> Adequate knowledge of climatic change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) with an average elevation of more than 4000 m above sea level (a.s.l.) has been insufficient for a long time owing to the lack of sufficient observational data. In the present study, monthly surface air temperature data were collected from almost every meteorological station on the TP since their establishment. There are 97 stations located above 2000 m a.s.l. on the TP; the longest records at five stations began before the 1930s, but most records date from the mid-1950s. Analyses of the temperature series show that the main portion of the TP has experienced statistically significant warming since the mid-1950s, especially in winter, but the recent warming in the central and eastern TP did not reach the level of the 1940s warm period until the late 1990s. Compared with the Northern Hemisphere and the global average, the warming of the TP occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase over the TP during the period 1955–1996 are about 0.16°C/decade for the annual mean and 0.32°C/decade for the winter mean, which exceed those for the Northern Hemisphere and the same latitudinal zone in the same period. Furthermore, there is also a tendency for the warming trend to increase with the elevation in the TP and its surrounding areas. This suggests that the TP is one of the most sensitive areas to respond to global climate change. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society

2005

0.0

2.937

Shaohong

, Yin

Yunhe

, Zheng

Du.

Climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau during the last three decades.

Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(1): 3-11.

[吴绍洪, 尹云鹤, 郑度. 青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势. 地理学报, 2005, 60(1): 3-11. ]

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the best places to study global climate change. Aridity or humidity status of land surface is an important outcome that has close relations with a set of climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind, but the relationship between them is complicated. This paper calculated potential evapotranspiration by applying Penman-Monteith model which was recommended by FAO in 1998, and aridity index by Vyshotskii model to indicate aridity or humidity status of the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1971-2000. Then it analyzed the changing trends of observed climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and calculated factors (potential evapotranspiration and aridity index), and showed the spatial distribution of aridity/humidity status over the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1971-2000. Trends calculated by linear regression were tested through Mann-Kendall test. Results of 77 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau showed that the main trends of climate change are temperature rise and precipitation increase; potential evapotranspiration decrease and most of the areas was ascending to more humid status. Results suggested that aridity or humidity status cannot be presented only with precipitation.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, Beijing 100085, China; 3. Graduate School of the Chnese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China

以1971~2000年青藏高原77个气象台站的观测数据 (最低、最高气温,日照时数,相对湿度,风速和降水量) 为基础,应用1998年FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型,并根据我国实际状况对其辐射项进行修正,模拟了青藏高原1971~2000年的最大可能蒸散,并由Vyshotskii模型转换为干燥度,力求说明近30年青藏高原的气候变化趋势,以及干湿状况的空间分布。应用线性回归法计算变化趋势,并用Mann-Kendall方法进行趋势检验。结果表明：青藏高原近30年气候变化的总体特征是气温呈上升趋势,降水呈增加趋势,最大可能蒸散呈降低趋势,大多数地区的干湿状况有由干向湿发展的趋势。气候因子与地表干湿状况间并不是线性关系,存在很大的不确定性。

... 吴绍洪等^[31]也明确指出,青藏高原近30年来气候变化的总体特征是气温呈上升趋势,降水呈增加趋势,最大可能蒸散呈降低趋势,大多数地区的干湿状况是由干向湿发展的趋势 ...

2013

0.0

1.301

Dai

Yufeng

, Gao

Yang

, Zhang

Guoqing.

Water volume change of the Peiku Co in the southern Tibetan Plateau and its response to climate change in 2003-2011.

Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(3): 723-732.

[戴玉凤, 高杨, 张国庆. 2003-2011年青藏高原佩枯错相对水量变化及其对气候变化的响应. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3): 723-732. ]

Lake shrinkage and expansion is an indicator of global climate change. In this study, variation in lake area and water level of the Paiku Co in southern Tibetan Plateau was examined by Landsat ETM images from 2003 to 2011 and ICESat altimetry data from 2003 to 2009. The results are as follows: 1) the monthly variation of the lake area is apparent. However, seasonal fluctuation of it is small, based on which further calculating is feasibility; 2) the lake area had decreased obviously from 2003 to 2011, with the rate of 0.52 km 2 ·a -1 in winter, 0.35 km 2 ·a -1 in spring and 0.61 km 2 ·a -1 in autumn; 3) the lake level had decreased 1.17 m from 2003 to 2009 with the rate of 0.05 m·a -1 ; 4) from 2003 to 2009, the water storage had decreased 0.35×10 8 m 3 ·a -1 in winter, 0.21×10 8 m 3 ·a -1 in spring and 0.37×10 8 m·a -1 in autumn; 5) spatially, the most obviously retreating parts were the northeast corner, the southeast corner and the southwest corner. Meteorological analysis shows that the increase of air temperature in summer will be the dominant factor for the reduction of the lake in autumn, while the decrease of precipitation in winter will induce lake shrinking in winter and spring.

1. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

湖泊的退缩与扩张是全球气候变化的指示器.利用2003-2011年Landsat ETM数据和2003-2009年ICESat激光测高数据, 分别对青藏高原佩枯错湖泊的面积和高程变化进行了分析, 并进一步估算了湖泊2003-2009年相对水量变化.结果表明: 佩枯错面积年内变化明显, 湖泊面积冬季最小, 春季出现小峰值, 秋季达到最大; 面积年内波动明显(1.18%), 但在冬季、春季和秋季相对稳定, 波动范围分别为0.26%、 0.1%和0.29%. 2003-2011年湖泊呈退缩趋势, 冬季、春季和秋季面积年际变化率分别为-0.52 km 2 ·a -1 、-0.35 km 2 ·a -1 和-0.61 km 2 ·a -1 ; 2003-2009年间湖泊水位下降了1.17 m, 变化率为-0.05 m·a -1 ; 2003-2010年, 冬季总水量减少了2.51×10 8 m 3 , 春季总水量减少了1.74×10 8 m 3 , 秋季总水量减少了2.80×10 8 m 3 , 平均相对水量变化率分别为-0.35×10 8 m 3 ·a -1 、-0.21×10 8 m 3 ·a -1 、-0.37×10 8 m 3 ·a -1 . 从空间上看, 湖泊退缩主要发生在东北角、东南角和西南角.气候因素分析表明, 佩枯错湖泊退缩秋季主要是因为夏半年平均气温的升高, 冬季和春季则主要是因为冬半年降水量的减少.

... 位于青藏高原边缘地带的湖泊虽也存在冰川融水的补给,但有的湖泊面积较小,只是春季时补给的较为明显,全年主要还是依靠降水的补给^[32] ,因此,水位呈现明显的下降,如佩枯错与玛旁雍错 ...