中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析

引用本文

王国刚, 刘彦随, 陈秧分. 中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析. 69(7): 907-915
WANG Guogang, LIU Yansui, CHEN Yangfen. Dynamic trends and driving forces of land-use intensification in the cultivated land of China. Acte Geographica Sinica, 69(7): 907-915 复制到剪切板

Permissions

本文是开放获取期刊文献，在以下情况下可以自由使用：学术研究、学术交流、科研教学等，但不允许用于商业目的.

中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析

王国刚^1,², 刘彦随², 陈秧分^1,²

1. 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所, 北京100081

2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101

刘彦随 (1965-), 男, 陕西绥德人, 研究员、博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员 (S110005331M), 主要从事土地利用和农业农村发展研究, 发表论文300余篇, 出版著作12部。E-mail: liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn

作者简介：王国刚 (1984-), 男, 山东沂水人, 博士, 助理研究员, 研究方向为土地利用和农业经济研究。E-mail: caswang@126.com

基金:国家自然科学基金项目 (41130748); 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项

摘要

基于“理性小农”、超边际经济学等理论,建立了农户耕地集约利用解释的理论框架。构建了集约利用度指数 (CII) 和驱动力模型,分析了1996-2008年中国省域的耕地集约利用程度及其影响因素。研究结果表明：我国耕地利用集约度总体大幅度提高,但地域差异明显,初步形成了第一阶梯较高集约度、第二三阶梯较低集约度的空间格局;耕地集约利用的首要贡献来自于化肥、机械、农药等省工性劳动的大量使用,其次是资本投入和劳动力;耕地自然本底条件、耕地经济收益和劳动力生产率,与耕地集约度呈正相关,而耕地非农化效益与耕地利用集约度呈负相关。基于研究结论的政策引申：加强政策引导,科学合理使用非可再生能源等省工性劳动;切实改善农业生产条件,适度规模经营,提升劳动生产率和耕地综合生产力;提高耕地经营性经济补贴标准,激励农户稳定从事农业生产的积极性。

关键词: 耕地资源; 集约利用度; 空间格局; 影响因素; 中国

Dynamic trends and driving forces of land-use intensification in the cultivated land of China

WANG Guogang^1,², LIU Yansui², CHEN Yangfen^1,²

1. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, CAAS, Beijing 100081, China

2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Fund:National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41130748; Central Research Institutes of Basic Research and Public Service Special Operations

Abstract

The aim of this study is to establish several important factors representing the land-use intensification in the cultivated land (denoted by CII) using a multi-dimensional approach for achieving realistic and practical cultivated land use policies. For this reason, the theoretical framework was firstly built to explain the changes of land-use intensification in the cultivated land, and then the variables and index were further developed for characterizing the dynamic trends and driving forces of the land-use intensification in the cultivated land at provincial level. Results indicate that the extent of CII obviously increased during the period from 1996 to 2008 due to the extensively use of fertilizers, machinery and pesticide, the increased labor and capital input as well as the intensified land use. Moreover, the principal component regression results show that the productivity of cultivated land, the economic benefits of cultivated land, the labor productivity and the land use conversion are the main factors affecting the village development. The first three factors play a positive role while the last one produces a negative effect on the land-use intensification in the cultivated land. According to these results, main policies for sustainable intensification in cultivated land are formulated. Firstly, the sustainable pathways for intensification should be adopted to reduce the unsustainable uses of chemical fertilizer, agricultural chemicals and etc. Secondly, the condition for agricultural production should be further improved to increase the cultivated land productivity. Thirdly, it is necessary and helpful for improving labor productivity and land use efficiency from the viewpoint of speeding up the cultivated land circulation.

Keyword: cultivated land; land-use intensification; spatial pattern; factors; China

Show Figures

1 引言

耕地是土地资源的精华, 担负着保障国家粮食安全、满足工业化和城市化用地需求以及生态环境建设等功能^[1]。国内外经验表明, 随着经济社会发展耕地耗减不可避免, 中国耕地资源变化也是这一论点的例证。据2008年国土资源公报数据显示：2008年我国耕地面积为18.26亿亩, 与1996年相比减少了1.25亿亩, 年均减少892.86万亩, 18亿亩耕地红线已岌岌可危, 人均耕地面积仅为世界同期平均水平的39%。通过对耕地转移流向考察发现, 我国耕地减少的主要原因是生态退耕、建设占用、灾害损毁和农业结构调整^[2]。由此看来, 当前退耕还林草、建设大量占用耕地等政策与发展环境下, 我国耕地面积还可能继续减少。然而, 作为人口与农业大国, 庞大的粮食需求量一直居高不下, 使得我国有限的耕地资源承受着巨大的生产压力^[2], 而耕地面积的减少将进一步威胁世界1/5人口的可持续食物安全^[3]。耕地的动态变化及有效利用程度是影响区域可持续发展与粮食安全的关键因素^[4], 已引起中央政府的高度重视。提高耕地利用集约度, 在不增加环境压力情况下从相同面积甚至更少的耕地上生产更多的粮食^{[5, 6]}是我国未来保障粮食安全的最有效途径^{[7, 8]}。

耕地利用集约度是指在生产过程中单位面积的耕地上投放的资本和劳动的数量^{[9, 10]}, 一定程度上决定了单位耕地面积的产量水平^[11]。耕地能否集约利用不仅关系到农民增收问题, 还关系到区域可持续发展和国家粮食安全战略^[12], 具有重大的现实意义。然而, 城镇化过程中农民农业生产积极性下降导致的耕地边际化问题日益严重^{[13, 14]}, 学术界予以了密切关注。现有研究侧重于对不同区域尺度耕地集约利用程度评价^{[12, 14]}、变化规律揭示^[15]、结构特征分析^{[2, 11]}等, 测度方法^{[7, 12, 16]}主要采用指标评价法、层次分析法、因子分析法、能值分析等, 研究评价视角集中在耕地的投入、产出两方面, 对耕地集约利用的内在机理及驱动机制探讨较少。

农户微观视角下, 耕地资源利用是一种农户行为, 农户作为理性个体, 对生产投入的选择遵循特定成本约束下的收入最大化原则, 耕地集约利用程度正是微观行为主体农户某种经济行为方式的结果^[17]。基于以上认知, 本文拟在理论解析耕地集约利用机理的基础上, 评价全国省域耕地利用集约度的时空分异特征, 探寻“ 保增长、保红线” 压力下影响耕地集约利用的关键因素, 并据此得出相应的政策启示, 以期为耕地保护及其集约利用提供决策参考。

2 研究方法与数据来源

2.1 基本思路

农户是农村社会的基本单元, 也是耕地经营的主体。实行家庭联产承包责任制以来, 农户有了生产经营自主权, 成为家庭农业生产决策的基本单位。随着中国市场经济发展, 农户经济行为呈现出由生存理性向经济理性转变^[18], 农户的整体行为更符合理性原则, 为农户行为研究提供了理论基础。农户按照“ 经济理性” 决策, 会综合考虑各种环境和资源条件, 尽最大可能配置要素以获取最大效益^[19]和生产要素配置效率^[20]。城乡发展转型期, 我国人多地少的国情没有改变, 但2亿多农民工非农就业和人口生育率下降、劳动力自然增长率减慢, 导致务农人数续下降^[21], 进而造成我国家庭“ 内卷化” 农业生产要素配置方式的变化。农户作为耕地直接使用者, 其生产要素的理性配置决定着耕地集约利用程度。

古典经济学强调分工是经济增长的源泉, 生产专业化、劳动分工带来更快的经济增长。超边际经济学理论进一步将分工划分为个人专业化、专业多样化、生产迂回化和经济组织化。就农户家庭内部分工而言, 家庭成员个体层面的专业化与家庭整体层面的专业多样化统一, 引致迂回经济的发展, 促进了农民个体土地经营规模的扩大和小农经济效率的提高, 使得兼业化成为长期组织均衡形态^[22]。注重资源配置的新古典经济学则认为, 农户兼业化阻碍了农业劳动生产率的提高, 降低了土地产出率和土地利用率, 未达到规模经济的理想状态, 不是最有效的资源配置方式。但农户基于对社会经济发展阶段、土地的期望和社会保障功能等认知, 谨慎对待土地流转, 利用农业剩余劳动力资源以增加农户收入等寻求农业生产要素配置的合理方式, 符合“ 经济理性” 决策准则。

基于相关理论分析, 本文认为即使传统农业生产中, 农户也是寻求利益最大化的农业生产要素配置方式, 正是基于这一要素配置理念, 在特定生产力条件下, 农户作为理性的经济人, 其耕地投入行为服从效益最大化原则。即耕地集约利用的实质是农户基于效益最大化的要素配置理念, 对耕地进行投入利用的行为结果, 与农户对耕地的收益期望成正比。

2.2 计量模型

2.2.1 评价指标与集约度指数根据耕地集约利用的科学内涵, 利用文献综述法与专家咨询法, 甄选出耕地利用集约度评价指标体系 (表1)。以1996-2008年省域面板数据为基础, 采用因子分析等方法对耕地集约利用评价指标进行分析。具体步骤：① 采用极差标准化方法, 对原始数据进行标准化处理; ② 进行因子分析法的使用条件判断; ③ 计算相关矩阵的特征值和特征向量, 提取公共因子; ④ 计算因子载荷矩阵。在此基础上, 构建耕地利用集约度指数 (CII)。

$\begin{matrix} CII = \overset{n}{\sum_{i = 1}} Fi ∙ Vi \end{matrix}$ (1)

式中：F_i为第i公共因子贡献率; V_i为第i公共因子的方差贡献率。

2.2.2 驱动因子选取与数据处理从影响经营主体决策的视角, 选取自然资源因素：耕地质量 (X₁)、耕地面积比重 (X₂)、劳均耕地面积 (X₃); 社会经济因素：农民人均种植业纯收入 (X₄)、耕地生产比较效益 (X₅)、劳动生产率 (X₆); 承载力因素：耕地非农化比较利益 (X₇)、农户农业生产性固定资产 (X₈)、粮食播面单产 (X₉), 作为耕地集约利用的主导驱动力因素。

表1 耕地利用集约评价指标及其含义 Tab. 1 Assessment variables of cultivated land intensive use and their meanings

耕地质量是影响耕地集约利用的自然基础条件, 一般耕地质量较好、相同投入条件下产出较高, 反映了地区耕地资源的本底特征, 采用耕地标准系数度量^[23]; 耕地面积比重表征地区耕地丰裕度, 采用耕地面积占区域土地总面积比重度量; 劳均耕地面积用以反映农户农业生产对象的稀缺度; 农民人均种植业纯收入反映农户农业生产投入的预期, 也是农业生产投入能力的重要标志; 耕地生产比较效益影响着农户生产的积极性, 采用农民人均种植业纯收入与非种植业纯收入的比值度量; 劳动生产率是农业产出与劳动力综合变化的重要标志; 耕地非农化比较利益采用单位面积居民点及工矿用地第二、三产业增加值与单位面积耕地农业增加值度量, 影响着耕地用途转换, 部分耕地非农化转换甚至使得耕地变化具有不可逆性。农户农业生产性固定资产采用国家统计局定义的农户购置役畜、产品畜、大中型农具、农林牧渔业机械等生产性固定资产数据表示。耕地标准系数计算方法：

$\begin{matrix} CLSIij = \frac{(Yij \times MCIij)}{(Ycj \times MCIcj)} \end{matrix}$ (2)

式中, CLSI为耕地标准系数; MCI为复种指数; Y为粮食播种面积单产; i、j、c分布代表地区、年份、全国。

2.2.3 耕地集约利用驱动力模型为探寻耕地集约利用的驱动力, 本文拟选择多元回归模型判别耕地利用集约度与各种变量之间的关系。建模步骤：① 基于相关分析法筛选指标; ② 采用多元统计的因子分析法确定各变量的贡献率, 求解主因子; ③ 基于相关分析结果对进入主因子的自变量进行多重共线性诊断。如果驱动因子间不存在多重共线性, 则采用多元线性回归模型, 计算公式：

$\begin{matrix} Y = b_{1} x_{1} + b_{2} x_{2} + b_{3} x_{3} + b_{4} x_{4} + ∙ ∙ ∙ + b_{n} x_{n} + m \end{matrix}$ (3)

式中：Y是根据自变量X计算得出的估计值, b_i (i = 1, 2, 3…n) 分别对应x_j (j = 1, 2, 3…n) 的偏回归系数。如果存在多重共线性问题, 则进入到下一步骤, ④ 通过岭迹图求取参数k值, 建立岭回归模型^[24]。

2.3 数据来源

研究过程中, 计算各指标所涉及的基础数据主要有耕地面积、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积等10余项。1996-2008年分省 (不含港澳台地区)：耕地面积、农村劳动力、农药施用量、有效灌溉面积等数据来自《中国农村统计年鉴》(1997-2009)、《中国人口和就业统计年鉴》(1997-2009)、《中国农业统计资料》(1997-2009); 总播种面积、农业及二三产业增加值、机械动力、化肥施用量等数据来自《中国统计年鉴》(1997-2009)、《新中国六十年统计资料汇编》; 农民人均农业收入、农业支出等数据来自《中国农村住户调查年鉴》(1992-2009)、《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》。

3 结果与分析

3.1 耕地集约利用的空间分异格局

3.1.1 耕地集约利用的评价因子识别以1996-2008年耕地集约利用评价指标为样本, 运行SPSS软件的相关模块进行计算, 结果显示：KMO统计量为0.60, Bartlett球形检验的p值为0.000, 表明研究样本通过因子分析的适用性检验。按照特征值贡献率大于85%和因子载荷的绝对值差异大等原则, 提取5个公因子 (Sl_I = 7.8个变量), 其累积方差贡献率为87.0% (表2)。其中, 第一公因子在V₂、V₃、V₆上有较高的载荷, 第二公因子V₄、V₉上有较高的载荷, 可以合称为省工性投入因子; 第三公因子在V₁、V₅上有较高的载荷, 可称为劳动力和资本投入因子; 第四公因子在V₇上有较高的载荷, 这是从耕地利用强度方面反映集约利用程度, 可称为利用强度因子; 第五公因子在变量耕地变化率V₈上有较高的载荷, 可称为耕地转换因子。

表2 公因子及旋转后的因子载荷矩阵 Tab. 2 Total variance and rotated component matrix

基于上述分析可以得出, 省工性劳动投入因子是耕地利用集约程度最为集中的反映, 其方差贡献率达24.9%; 其次是劳动力和资本投入因子, 利用强度因子和耕地转换因子, 反映耕地利用集约程度的方差贡献率分别为12.0%、11.7%; 4种因子可以解释耕地集约利用程度变化的89.04%, 能够较为充分的反映耕地利用集约程度。

3.1.2 耕地集约利用的空间分异特征根据公式 (1) 计算得出各省耕地集约利用的综合得分值, 并在ArcGIS的支持下, 采用自然聚类法将耕地利用集约度划分为粗放利用区、低度集约区、中度集约区和高度集约区4种类型, 判断全国省域耕地集约利用的空间异质性。

结果表明, 我国省际耕地利用集约度的差异显著 (图1)。

	Figure Option View Download New Window
	图1 1996-2008年中国省域耕地集约利用的空间格局Fig. 1 Spatial patterns of cultivated land intensive use in China during 1996-2008 at provincial level

(1) 1996年粗放利用区域数量多, 面积比重大, 主要分布在西部地区, 以及东部地区的京、沪、粤3省市; 低度集约区区域数量次之, 分布在冀、鄂、桂、琼以及东北三省; 中度与高度集约区集中分布在华北平原中南部以及长江中下游平原的省区, 此外, 新疆处于耕地利用高度集约类型区。

(2) 与1996年相比, 2008年省域耕地集约度有较大幅度提高, 粗放利用类型区省域数量有所减少, 集聚分布特征明显; 中度集约区集中分布在鄂、皖、苏及京津地区; 高度集约利用类型区数量明显增多, 分布在黄淮海平原、长江中下游平原区, 以及新、黑两省。

2008年省域耕地利用基本上形成了“ 第一阶梯— 较高集约度、第二三阶梯— 较低集约度” 的空间分异格局。

3.2 耕地集约利用的动态变化特征

为揭示省域耕地利用集约度动态变化特征, 进一步将31个省 (市、区) 划分为低速、中速和快速提高区3类 (图2)。1996-2008年全国省域耕地集约度都有所提高, 其中低速提高区集中分布在西部地区; 中速提高区主要分布在华东、华中地区, 以及西部地区的甘宁渝贵四省; 快速提高区集中分布在东北黑吉地区、京冀地区、晋陕宁蒙资源区。

	Figure Option View Download New Window
	图2 1996-2008年中国耕地集约利用动态变化与重心迁移Fig. 2 Dynamic pattern of cultivated land intensive use and shift of its gravity centers in China during 1996-2008

根据要素重心模型计算了1996、2000、2004、2008年耕地利用集约度重心。从图2可以看出, 我国省际耕地集约度重心经历了1996-2000年由中西部地区迅速向中东部地区迁移后, 2000-2004年耕地集约度重心向东南方向移动, 而后2004-2008年快速向北移动。这说明1996-2008年西部地区耕地集约度提升较慢, 而中东部地区, 尤其是北方地区耕地利用集约度上升幅度较大, 明显高于南方地区。

3.3 耕地集约利用的驱动力分析

3.3.1 耕地集约利用的主要影响因子首先对数据进行正态分布检验, 然后采用相关分析方法判别耕地利用集约度与各变量之间的关系 (表3)。结果表明, X₁、X₄、X₅、X₆、X₇、X₉与耕地集约度 (Y) 呈显著的相关性 (P < 0.001); X₂、X₃、X₈与Y之间相关性较低, 不能确定Y与它们之间的相关性。因此可以排除耕地面积比重 (X₂)、劳均耕地面积 (X₃)、农户农业生产性固定资产 (X₈) 对耕地集约利用的影响。

表3 相关分析结果 Tab. 3 The results of correlation analysis

经KMO和Bartlett球形检验, 5项驱动因子符合因子分析要求, 计算结果显示：提取的前4个公因子的方差累计贡献率达到94.63%, 说明这4个公因子能够较充分地解释耕地利用集约程度的变化。据此确定公因子, 并进行方差极大旋转, 求主因子解 (表4)。

表4 旋转后的驱动力因子载荷矩阵 Tab. 4 Rotated factor loading matrix

从表4可知, 第一公因子与耕地质量 (X₁) 和粮食播面单产 (X₉) 有较高的相关性, 反应了耕地生产力条件, 代表了耕地自然本底条件对耕地利用集约度的影响; 第二公因子与农民人均种植业纯收入 (X₄) 和耕地生产比较效益 (X₅) 相关, 代表耕地经济收益即农户生产期望对耕地利用集约度的影响; 第三公因子与劳动生产率 (X₆) 有较高的相关性, 代表农户获取生活资料的能力对耕地利用的影响; 第四公因子与耕地非农化比较利益 (X₇) 相关性较高, 代表耕地用途转换的影响作用。

3.3.2 驱动力回归方程由表3还可以看出, 部分变量间存在较强的相关性, 如X₁与X₉、X₅与X₃、X₄之间的相关系数分别达到0.76、0.69和0.63, 存在明显的多重共线性。因此, 本文采用岭回归法, 通过绘制岭迹图求k值, 建立回归模型, 以降低多重共线性对回归结果的影响 (图3)。

	Figure Option View Download New Window
	图3 耕地集约利用驱动因素的岭迹图Fig. 3 Ridge trace of driving factors of cultivated land intensive use

从图3可以看出, 当k < 0.8时, 岭回归线波动较大, 各驱动因子的回归系数不稳定, 逐渐的当k > 0.8时, 岭回归线趋于平稳。故本文取k值为0.8, 得出如下回归模型：

$\begin{matrix} Y = - 0.75 + 0.49 X_{1} + 0.31 X_{4} + 0.29 X_{5} + 0.25 X_{6} - 0.46 X_{7} + 0.33 X_{9} \\ t = 12.16 8.30 1.14 6.11 - 3.10 8.66 \\ ({\bar{R}}^{2}] = 0.767 ； R^{2} = 0.781 ； DF = 56.01 ； P = 0.0000) \end{matrix}$

模型的可决系数达0.781, 表明驱动因素可以解释78.1%耕地利用集约度 (Y) 的变动。回归模型结果显示：仅X₇与Y则呈现出负相关, 表明区域耕地非农化效益越高, 耕地用途转换的期望越高, 导致耕地保护积极性不强, 耕作投入减少、耕地利用集约度降低。耕地质量、农民人均种植业纯收入、劳动生产率、耕地生产比较效益和粮食播面单产对耕地集约利用有着显著地正向影响, 这说明耕地自然基础条件越好, 耕地生产收益越高, 耕地越趋向于集约利用; 相反则导致粗放利用。这验证了本文提出的研究假说。

3.4 耕地集约利用类型分区

省域尺度上, 根据1996-2008年各省耕地利用集约度指数, 及其1996-2002、2002-2008和1996-2008年三时段的变化特征, 采用SPSS聚类方法进行分类, 结果显示研究区可划分为4大类型区 (图4)。① I区由华东六省、华中三省以及津、冀、新三省组成, 该类型区耕地利用集约度最高。其主要原因是, 新疆地区农业生产机械化程度高, 劳动生产率和耕地生产比较效益处于较高水平, 促进了耕地集约利用; 该类型其他省份集中分布在华北平原和长江中下游平原区, 耕作基础条件好, 降水充沛, 农业劳动力较为充足, 但省工性劳动投入大, 农业生产活动带来严重的环境问题。② II区由东北三省与四川省组成, 该类型区无论是耕地生产力还是自然条件都十分优越, 是我国重要的农产品生产基地, 农业劳动生产率相对较高, 耕地利用集约程度较高。③ III区由晋陕蒙三个资源富集区组成, 该类型区的主要特征是生态环境脆弱, 耕地质量相对较差, 农牧交错, 耕地退化严重, 随着农业技术的进步, 耕地利用集约度虽然有所提高, 但整体上仍然偏低。④ IV区包括西部地区的甘、宁、青、藏、云、贵、渝、桂以及东部沿海京、沪、粤、琼2省, 该区域尤其是西部省份的耕地生产力、自然生产条件较差, 耕地生产收益低, 导致耕地利用集约程度一直处于较低水平。

	Figure Option View Download New Window
	图4 1996-2008年中国耕地集约利用分区Fig. 4 Divisions of cultivated land intensive use in China during 1996-2008 at provincial level

4 结论与讨论

4.1 结论

(1) 基于“ 理性小农” 和超边际经济学等理论对耕地集约利用机理做出了解释：在一定的分工组织结构中, 农户按照“ 经济理性” 决策, 综合考虑各种环境和资源条件, 尽最大可能配置生产要素以取得最大效益。因此, 农户在耕地资源上的生产配置方式决定了耕地集约利用程度。

(2) 化肥、机械、农药等省工性投入因子是耕地利用集约程度最为集中的反映, 其次是劳动力和资本投入因子、利用强度因子和耕地转换因子, 4种因子可以解释耕地集约利用程度变化的89.04%。

(3) 时空尺度上, 与1996年相比, 2008年省域耕地集约度有较大幅度提高, 且区域差异明显, 初步形成了“ 第一阶梯— 较高集约度、第二三阶梯— 较低集约度” 的空间分异格局。其中, 耕地自然本底条件是影响耕地利用集约度的首要正向驱动因素, 此外, 耕地生产比较收益和劳动生产率越高, 耕地越趋向于集约利用, 但区域耕地非农化效益越高, 越不利于耕地集约利用。

4.2 政策讨论

上述研究结论具有如下有益的政策启示：(1) 可以通过加大资金扶持力度、改善农业生产条件, 如开展实施田、水、路、林综合整治, 建设高标准农田, 改良中低产田等, 从而有效提高耕地综合生产能力, 促进耕地集约利用。(2) 鉴于劳动生产率对耕地集约利用的正向影响, 建议加快制定并完善耕地流转制度, 培育新型农业经营主体与新型农民, 整合生产要素, 提高劳动生产率。这也为耕地基础条件差或耕地非农化效益较高区域, 有效解决耕地被撂荒、利用效率低等问题提供了政策导向。(3) 农业生产中化肥、农药等非可再生能源的投入是耕地集约利用提高的重要表征, 但基于其对生态环境的影响认知, 要辩证的看待, 亟待加强政策引导, 科学合理使用。(4) 完善农产品价格政策, 强化粮食直补及农资综合补贴政策研究与落实, 完善补偿机制, 优化耕作制度和补贴方式, 提高补贴标准, 降低农业生产成本, 提高农业生产比较效益和农户耕作生产的积极性。此外, 要警惕耕地生产比较效益低导致的耕地过度非农化、非粮化现象。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

参考文献

View Option

[1]	Cai Yunlong, Huo Yaqin. Reevaluating cultivated land in China: Method and case studies. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(10): 1084-1092. [蔡运龙, 霍雅勤. 中国耕地价值重建方法与案例研究. 地理学报, 2006, 61(10): 1084-1092. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 2.937]
[2]	Zhu Huiyi, Li Xiubin, Xin Liangjie. Intensity change in cultivated land use in china and its policy implications. Journal of Natural Resources, 2007, 62(6): 907-915. [朱会义, 李秀彬, 辛良杰. 现阶段我国耕地利用集约度变化及其政策启示. 自然资源学报, 2007, 62(6): 907-915. ] [本文引用:3] [CJCR: 2.407]
[3]	Liu Yansui, Li Yurui. Spatio-temporal coupling relationship between farmland and agricultural labor changes at county level in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(12): 1602-1612. [刘彦随, 李裕瑞. 中国县域耕地与农业劳动力变化的时空耦合关系. 地理学报, 2010, 65(12): 1602-1612. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 2.937]
[4]	Xu Hengzhou, Guo Yuyan. Influence of farmer differentiation on cultivated land use efficiency. Chinese Rural Economy, 2012, (6): 32-41. [许恒周, 郭玉燕. 农民分化对耕地利用效率的影响. 中国农村经济, 2012, (6): 32-41. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 2.952]
[5]	Garnett T, Appleby M C, Balmford A et al. Sustainable intensification in agriculture. Science, 2013, 341(6141): 33-34. [本文引用:1]
[6]	Foley J A, Ramankutty N, Brauman K A et al. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature, 2011, 478(7369): 337-342. [本文引用:1] [JCR: 38.597]
[7]	Godfray H C J, Beddington J R. Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 2010, 327: 812-818. [本文引用:2]
[8]	Song Xiaoqing, Ouyang Zhu. Key influencing factors of food security guarantee in China during 1999-2007. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(6): 793-803. [宋小青, 欧阳竹. 1999-2007年中国粮食安全的关键影响因素. 地理学报, 2012, 67(6): 793-803. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 2.937]
[9]	Huang Xianjin, Zhang Anlu. Land Economics. Beijing: China Agricultural University Press, 2010. [黄贤金, 张安录. 土地经济学. 北京: 中国农业大学出版社, 2010. ] [本文引用:1]
[10]	Bi Baode. Land Economics. Beijing: China Renmin University Press, 2011. [毕宝德. 土地经济学. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 2011. ] [本文引用:1]
[11]	Chen Yuqi, Li Xiubin. Structural change of agricultural land use intensity and its regional disparity in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(4): 469-478. [陈瑜琦, 李秀彬. 1980年以来中国耕地利用集约度的结构特征. 地理学报, 2009, 64(4): 469-478. ] [本文引用:2] [CJCR: 2.937]
[12]	Xie Hualin, Zou Jinlang, Peng Xiaolin. Spatial-temporal difference analysis of cultivated land use intensity based on emergy in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(7): 889-902. [谢花林, 邹金浪, 彭小琳. 基于能值的鄱阳湖生态经济区耕地利用集约度时空差异分析. 地理学报, 2012, 67(7): 889-902. ] [本文引用:3] [CJCR: 2.937]
[13]	Baldock D, Beaufoy G. Farming at the Margins: Aband onment or Redevelopment of Agricultural Land in Europe. London and The Hague: Institute for European Environmental Policy/Agricultural Economics Research Institute, 1996. [本文引用:1]
[14]	Huang Jikun, Wang Xiaobing, Zhi Huayong et al. Subsidies and distortions in China's agriculture: Evidence from producer-level data. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2010, 55(1): 53-71. [本文引用:2]
[15]	Zhu Xiaoqian. Analysis on intensive use of cultivated land and its driving forces in Anhui Province. China Land Science, 2009, 23(2): 11-17. [祝小迁. 安徽省耕地集约利用及其驱动力分析. 中国土地科学, 2009, 23(2): 11-17. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 2.031]
[16]	Lambin E F, Rounsevell M D A, Geist H J. Are agricultural land -use models able to predict changes in land -use intensity? Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2000, 82: 321-331 [本文引用:1] [JCR: 2.859]
[17]	Wu Yuling, Feng Zhonglei, Zhou Yong. Co-integration analysis on driving factors of intensive cultivated land use based on perspective of farmers: A case study of Hubei Province. China Population Resources and Environment, 2011, 21(11): 67-72. [吴郁玲, 冯忠垒, 周勇. 耕地集约利用影响因素的协整分析. 中国人口资源与环境, 2011, 21(11): 67-72. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 1.691]
[18]	Li Hongtao. "The Rational Peasant" or "moral economy": Review and new interpretation. Social Sciences Review, 2008, 23(5): 39-41. [李红涛. “理性小农"抑或"道义经济”: 观点评述与新的解释. 社会纵横, 2008, 23(5): 39-41. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 0.3476]
[19]	Li Xiaojian, Zhou Xiongfei, Zheng Chunhui et al. Development of specialized villages in various environments of less developed China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(6): 783-792. [李小建, 周雄飞, 郑纯辉等. 欠发达区地理环境对专业村发展的影响研究. 地理学报, 2012, 67(6): 783-792. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 2.937]
[20]	Schultz T W. Transforming Traditional Agriculture. Liang Xiaoming trans. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 2010. [舒尔茨. 改造传统农业. 梁小民译. 北京: 商务印书馆, 2010. ] [本文引用:1]
[21]	Huang Zongzhi. Recessive Agricultural Revolution in China. Beijing: Law Press, 2010. [黄宗智. 中国的隐性农业革命. 北京: 法律出版社, 2010. ] [本文引用:1]
[22]	Xiang Guocheng, Han Shaofeng. Division of labor and agricultural organizational evolution: An analysis based on the model of indirect pricing theory. China Economic Quarterly, 2007, 6(2): 513-538. [向国成, 韩绍凤. 分工与农业组织化演进: 基于间接定价理论模型的分析. 经济学(季刊), 2007, 6(2): 513-538. ] [本文引用:1]
[23]	Chen Jianfei, Wei Suqiong, Chang Kangtsung et al. A comparative case study of cultivated land changes in Fujian and Taiwan. Land Use Policy, 2007, 24(2): 386-395. [本文引用:1]
[24]	He Xiaoqun, Liu Wenqing. Applied Regression Analysis. 2nd ed. Beijing: China Renmin University Press, 2007. [何晓群, 刘文卿. 应用回归分析. 2版. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 2007. ] [本文引用:1]

2006

0.0

2.937

Cai

Yunlong

, Huo

Yaqin.

Reevaluating cultivated land in China: Method and case studies.

Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(10): 1084-1092.

[蔡运龙, 霍雅勤. 中国耕地价值重建方法与案例研究. 地理学报, 2006, 61(10): 1084-1092. ]

The basic cause of continuous cultivated land conversion is the comparatively low benefit of its agricultural use. Therefore, the main approaches to establishing the conservation mechanism of cultivated land are to heighten the comparative income of agricultural use of cultivated land on the one hand, and to enhance the cost of cultivated land conversion on the other hand. The two approaches are summarized into the re-evaluation of cultivated land resource. This article argues that cultivated land resource is actually provided with economic output value, ecological service value and social guarantee value, and all of them can be re-evaluated by market price respectively. The economic output value of cultivated land is the quotient of its annual benefit divided by discount rate. The ecological service value of cultivated land is the quotient of its annual ecosystem service value divided by discount rate. The social guarantee value of cultivated land is the sum of its provisions of endowment insurance for the aged and of guarantee for employment. Three cases representing various environmental conditions and social development levels are studied respectively in the article so as to reveal the regional differentiation among the east, the middle and the west of China. They are Chao'an county of Guangdong Province, Huaiyang county of Henan Province and Huining county of Gansu Province. The results show that the values of cultivated land resource are obviously different among the three case areas and present the higher feature in the east and the lower in the west. Regarding the composition of values of cultivated land resource, social value makes up more than 60% of the total in all of the three areas. Yet the proportion of social value is higher in the west and lower in the east, demonstrating that the dependent degree of peasant upon cultivated land resource reversely relates with the level of socio-economic development. The proportion of economic output value to the total value is higher in the east and lower in the west, showing the difference of productivity resulted from natural and economical conditions. The proportion of ecological service value to the total value is higher in the west and lower in the east, because the ecosystem of the west is simpler so that the farmland ecosystem is relatively more important in the western eco-environment. Agricultural land use provides a huge amount of exterior benefit for the society. This can become an important reason for practicing agricultural subsidies, and also become a basis for calculating the amount of subsidies. Moreover, this should be used as a basis for enhancing the compensation of levied cultivated land. In the present period in China, cultivated land serves as the major resource livelihood for majority of the farmers. Under the conditions of faultiness and even absence of rural social guarantee system, the social guarantee value of cultivated land could not be ignored.

1. Department of Resources, Environment and Geography, The Center for Land Study, Peking University; Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, The Ministry of Education, Beijing 100871, China; 2. Office of Ministry of Land and Resources, P.R. China, Beijing 100037, China

耕地不断流失的根本原因在于耕地农业利用的比较收益低下,所以建立耕地保护机制的主要途径在于：一方面提高耕地利用的比较收益,另一方面通过提高耕地征用的价值补偿来抑制乱占耕地行为。这两条途径归结于重建耕地资源的价值。本文提出耕地资源具有经济产出价值、生态服务价值和社会保障价值,并尝试用市场价格分别加以评估。耕地资源的经济产出价值为耕地年收益与贴现率之商,生态服务价值为耕地生态服务年价值与贴现率之商,社会保障价值是耕地提供的养老保险和就业保障价值之和。分别选择广东省潮安县、河南省淮阳县和甘肃省会宁县三个县作为案例的评价,以显示我国东、中、西部之间的区域差异。结果表明：耕地资源价值量在各地区之间呈现东高西低的差异;在耕地资源价值构成中,社会保障价值在三个案例区都占60%以上,但所占比重从东到西渐增,说明农民对耕地资源的依赖程度与社会经济发展水平呈反相关。耕地资源的经济产出价值在总价值中所占比重则从东到西递减,主要源于自然和经济生产率的差异。生态服务价值所占比重也表现出东低西高的特点,反映出生态系统从复杂到简单的变化使得农田生态系统对于西部地区生态环境显得更加重要。农业用地为社会提供了大量外部效益,这可成为实行农业补贴的一大理由,也是计算补贴量的一种依据;更可作为提高征地补偿标准的依据。在我国现阶段,耕地是大多数农民赖以生存的主要资源,在农村社会保障体系不完善甚至不存在的情况下,耕地的社会保障功能不可忽视。

... 1 引言耕地是土地资源的精华,担负着保障国家粮食安全、满足工业化和城市化用地需求以及生态环境建设等功能^[1] ...

2007

0.0

2.407

Zhu

Huiyi

, Li

Xiubin

, Xin

Liangjie.

Intensity change in cultivated land use in china and its policy implications.

Journal of Natural Resources, 2007, 62(6): 907-915.

[朱会义, 李秀彬, 辛良杰. 现阶段我国耕地利用集约度变化及其政策启示. 自然资源学报, 2007, 62(6): 907-915. ]

The area of cultivated land in China decreased from 35×104ha/yr(1980-1996) to 98×104ha/yr(1997-2005),resulted from rapid economic development following the 1978 reforms.In response to the growing demand of society for grain products,intensification has become the overwhelming choice in cultivated land use.But this choice came into conflict with farmers' pursuance in recent years,as the grain production is declining in importance for farmers with market economic improvement.Has the cultivated land use been intensive or extensive in the conflict between social interests and individual interest.How to release the conflict if extensive trend exists. The intensity changes in cultivated land use were discussed firstly on country scale.Increase of multi-cropping index(MCI) during 1952-2005 implied the intensification in cultivated land use in this period.But the sown area of grain decreased from 113787000hm 2 in 1998 to 99410000ha in 2003 and 104278000ha in 2005.Meanwhile,the grain yield per unit-sown area had a reduction from 4502kg/ha in 1998 to 4332kg/ha in 2003,and then went up to 4642kg/ha in 2005.The downward trend of grain sown area and grain yield per sown-unit area during 1998-2003,revealed input reduction of cultivated land,expense and labor in grain production.The rise in 2004-2005 can be ascribed to the implement of new agriculture policy.Those facts mean that lower incentive for raising cultivated land use intensity already threatens grain production in China. On regional scale,the intensity in cultivated land use varied across provinces.MCI decreased in regional disparity in Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Zhejiang,Fujian,Jiangxi,Hubei and Guangdong during 1996-2003.Furthermore,these provinces reduced their grain sown area synchronously.Other provinces that reduced their grain sown area included Hebei,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Jiangsu,Shangdong,Henan,Hunan,Guangxi,Hainan,Sichuan,Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,and Xinjiang.Except for input reduction of cultivated land in grain production,input of labor and expense declined in some of the above regions till 2005. Farmer's pursuance change is at the root of the intensity change in cultivated land use.It had turned from maximizing the output of land to maximizing the income of labor force with the development of market economy.In order to achieve the goal of national food security,relevant policies and measures should be further taken to alleviate the conflict between the nation's goal and farmers' goal of maximizing their interests.These policies and measures should speed up the flow of cultivated land between farmers and encourage farmers to extend their farm scale with higher technological level.

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

近年来,随着社会经济的快速发展和市场经济的不断完善,我国耕地利用中,农户利益最大化的个体追求逐步由耕地产出最大化向劳动力效益最大化方向发展,粮食生产对于农户的重要性在下降,导致我国粮食生产中耕地、资本和劳动力投入在1998年后出现下降趋势,北京、天津、上海、浙江、福建、江西、湖北、广东等省(市)区甚至出现耕地利用集约度总体下降的情况。耕地利用集约度的这一变化对我国粮食安全将产生深远的影响。文章在分析上述情况后认为,为实现我国粮食安全的国家目标,需要在耕地保护政策的基础上,进一步采取政策措施提高粮食生产的规模效益,以缓解粮食安全的国家目标与个体利益最大化的农户目标之间的冲突。

... 通过对耕地转移流向考察发现,我国耕地减少的主要原因是生态退耕、建设占用、灾害损毁和农业结构调整^[2] ...

... 然而,作为人口与农业大国,庞大的粮食需求量一直居高不下,使得我国有限的耕地资源承受着巨大的生产压力^[2],而耕地面积的减少将进一步威胁世界1/5人口的可持续食物安全^[3] ...

... 现有研究侧重于对不同区域尺度耕地集约利用程度评价^{[12, 14]}、变化规律揭示^[15]、结构特征分析^{[2, 11]}等,测度方法^{[7, 12, 16]}主要采用指标评价法、层次分析法、因子分析法、能值分析等,研究评价视角集中在耕地的投入、产出两方面,对耕地集约利用的内在机理及驱动机制探讨较少 ...

2010

0.0

2.937

Liu

Yansui

, Li

Yurui.

Spatio-temporal coupling relationship between farmland and agricultural labor changes at county level in China.

Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(12): 1602-1612.

[刘彦随, 李裕瑞. 中国县域耕地与农业劳动力变化的时空耦合关系. 地理学报, 2010, 65(12): 1602-1612. ]

Cultivated land and agricultural labor force are two core elements for promoting agricultural production and sustainable rural development. During the process of rapid urbanization and industrialization in China, numerous agricultural labors transferred to non-agricultural sector and a huge proportion of farmland was converted to construction land, in particular, these changes were spatially uneven. Theoretically, coupling relationship should be found between farmland and agricultural labor change. The overspeed of farmland conversion or agricultural labor transfer may affect the sustainability of agricultural production and rural development. Policy implications may arise from systematic analysis on spatio-temporal coupling relationship between agricultural labor transfer and farmland conversion. Based on county-level statistical data of farmland and agricultural labor, this paper gives an exploratory study in this area, by using GIS technology and mathematical modeling approach. The results showed that: (1) both the total amount of farmland and agricultural labor of the 1914 studied counties increased from 1996 to 2000 and then went through a process of reduction. The amount of farmland and agricultural labor increased by 2.70% and 1.40% from 1996 to 2000, and then decreased by 1.51% and 8.18% from 2000 to 2005, respectively. (2)“Hu Huanyong Line” which links Aihui and Tengchong cities, is an important dividing line in depicting China's spatial pattern of farmland conversion and agricultural labor transfer. Within the ribbon region along this line, farmland decreased drastically due to Grain for Green Project, however, the agricultural labor transfer lagged behind severely. In the region to the northwest of ribbon region along the HU Line, the reclamation of reserve resources caused a substantial increase of farmland, and the amount of agricultural labor grew steadily. In the region to the southeast of ribbon region along the HU Line, farmland was converted to construction land generally and agricultural labor decreased rapidly. Coupling relationship between farmland conversion and agricultural labor transfer could only be found in the third region. (3) During the study periods from 1996 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2005, 447 and 505 counties experienced a benign agricultural transfer in the process of farmland loss, respectively. Labor-farmland elastic coefficient (LFEC) of 90% of these counties ranged with a median of 4.58 and 2.97, respectively, which means that the efficiency of agricultural labor transfer decreased during the process of rapid farmland loss. (4) By developing a clustering method based on Self-organization Mapping (SOM) Neural Network on the software platform of ArcGIS and MATLAB, the coupling relationship between farmland conversion and agricultural labor change was divided into nine regional types, and also the control orientation for each region was put forward. Multi-scenario simulation analysis predicted that the trend value of LFEC during 2005-2015 was 2.55, and this could be a standard parameter for coordinating the relationship between farmland conversion and agricultural labor change in the next 10 years in China.

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

利用1996 年、2000 年和2005 年中国县域耕地与农业劳动力数据，基于GIS 技术和模型方法，分析了县域耕地面积与农业劳动力变化态势及其时空耦合特征。研究表明：① 县域耕地面积和农业劳动力变化均呈先增后减态势。1996-2000 年，耕地总量、劳动力数量分别增长2.70%和1.40%；2000-2005 年，耕地总量、劳动力数量分别减少1.51%和8.18%。②“胡焕庸线”是刻画中国耕地和劳动力变化格局的重要分界线。沿此线带状区域内因退耕还林造成耕地快速减少，而农业劳动力转移滞后；其西北部区域耕地快速增加，农业劳动力也在增长；其东南部区域耕地明显减少，而农业劳动力减少速度更快，二者呈现协调态势。③ 耕地非农化进程中县域劳动力转移效率呈下降趋势。1996-2000 年和2000-2005 年，全国分别有447 个和505 个县域的耕地减少和劳动力转移呈良性变化，90%的县域劳耕弹性系数(LFEC) 的中位数分别为4.58 和2.97。④ 基于SOM自组织特征映射神经网络聚类方法，可将1996-2005 年中国县域耕地与劳动力变化的耦合特征划分为9大类型区。多情景模拟分析表明，2005-2015年的LFEC趋势值为2.55。

2012

0.0

2.952

... 耕地的动态变化及有效利用程度是影响区域可持续发展与粮食安全的关键因素^[4],已引起中央政府的高度重视 ...

2013

0.0

Garnett

, Appleby M

, Balmford

et al. Sustainable intensification in agriculture. Science, 2013, 341(6141): 33-34.

1 University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK. 2 World Society for the Protection of Animals, London WC1 X8HB, UK. 3 University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK. 4 University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK. 5 University of Leeds, Leeds LS29JT, UK. 6 Oxfam, Oxford OX4 2JY, UK. 7 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome 00153, Italy. 8 University of British Columbia, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, Canada. 9 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Brisbane, Australia. 10 University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK. 11 CGIAR, Frederiksberg DK-1958, Denmark. 12 International Institute for Environment and Development, London WC1X 8NH, UK. ↵ *Corresponding author. E-mail: charles.godfray@zoo.ox.ac.uk

Food security is high on the global policy agenda. Demand for food is increasing as populations grow and gain wealth to purchasemore varied and resource-intensive diets. There is increased competition for land, water, energy, and other inputs into foodproduction. Climate change poses challenges to agriculture, particularly in developing countries ( 1 ), and many current farming practices damage the environment and are a major source of greenhouse gases (GHG). In an increasinglyglobalized world, food insecurity in one region can have widespread political and economic ramifications ( 2 ).

... 提高耕地利用集约度,在不增加环境压力情况下从相同面积甚至更少的耕地上生产更多的粮食^[5,6]是我国未来保障粮食安全的最有效途径^[7,8] ...

2011

38.597

0.0

Foley J

, Ramankutty

, Brauman

K A

et al. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature, 2011, 478(7369): 337-342.

Increasing population and consumption are placing unprecedented demands on agriculture and natural resources. Today, approximately a billion people are chronically malnourished while our agricultural systems are concurrently degrading land, water, biodiversity and climate on a global scale. To meet the world’s future food security and sustainability needs, food production must grow substantially while, at the same time, agriculture’s environmental footprint must shrink dramatically. Here we analyse solutions to this dilemma, showing that tremendous progress could be made by halting agricultural expansion, closing ‘yield gaps’ on underperforming lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste. Together, these strategies could double food production while greatly reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.

... 提高耕地利用集约度,在不增加环境压力情况下从相同面积甚至更少的耕地上生产更多的粮食^[5,6]是我国未来保障粮食安全的最有效途径^[7,8] ...

2010

0.0

Godfray H C

, Beddington J

. Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 2010, 327: 812-818.

1 Department of Zoology and Institute of Biodiversity at the James Martin 21st Century School, University of Oxford, South ParksRoad, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. 2 U.K. Government Office for Science, 1 Victoria Street, London SW1H OET, UK. 3 Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, Stoneleigh Park, Kenilworth, Warwickshire CV8 2TL, UK. 4 Institute of Development Studies, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9RE, UK. 5 Syngenta AG, Post Office Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland. 6 Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK. 7 Department of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ, UK. 8 Institute of Development Studies, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9RE, UK. 9 Foresight, U.K. Government Office for Science, 1 Victoria Street, London SW1H OET, UK. 10 International Institute for Environment and Development, 3 Endsleigh Street, London WC1H 0DD, UK. ↵ *To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: charles.godfray@zoo.ox.ac.uk

... 提高耕地利用集约度,在不增加环境压力情况下从相同面积甚至更少的耕地上生产更多的粮食^[5,6]是我国未来保障粮食安全的最有效途径^[7,8] ...

2012

0.0

2.937

Song

Xiaoqing

, Ouyang

Zhu.

Key influencing factors of food security guarantee in China during 1999-2007.

Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(6): 793-803.

[宋小青, 欧阳竹. 1999-2007年中国粮食安全的关键影响因素. 地理学报, 2012, 67(6): 793-803. ]

Exploring the key influencing factors of food security guarantee during the typical period is of significance for the development of cultivated land protection and agricultural policy. This paper aims at exploring the factors between 1999 and 2007 which was in the new period of cultivated land protection administration. Methods such as comparison, spatial and econometric analysis are used to analyze the change in cultivated land productivity which was the cause of the disparity between cultivated land area and grain output changes. Results show that farmers' willingness to grow grain which determines cultivated land use intensity is the key factor. The sustained improvement of the willingness in 2003-2007 was mainly resulted from the rise of grain market price. Meanwhile, direct subsidy merely inspired farmers' anticipation for the profit of grain growing at the beginning years of implementing this policy. In addition, suggestions on the development of cultivated land protection are proposed involving improvement of farmers' willingness to grow grain, optimization of inputs in grain growing and improvement of cultivated land protection models.

1. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

选取耕地保护“新政”时期的1999-2007 年为研究时段,以耕地面积与粮食产量变化的分歧原因—耕地生产力变化为切入点,通过比较分析、空间与计量分析探寻粮食安全的关键影响因素。结果表明:农民种粮积极性变化决定着耕地集约利用是影响粮食安全的关键;2003-2007 年农民种粮积极性的持续提高主要来自市场粮价的上涨;粮食直补仅在开始实施的年份激发了农民对种粮收益的预期。此外,本文从提高农民种粮积极性、优化粮食生产投入及改进耕地保护模式3方面,提出了耕地保护发展的政策建议。

... 提高耕地利用集约度,在不增加环境压力情况下从相同面积甚至更少的耕地上生产更多的粮食^[5,6]是我国未来保障粮食安全的最有效途径^[7,8] ...

2010

0.0

... 耕地利用集约度是指在生产过程中单位面积的耕地上投放的资本和劳动的数量^[9,10],一定程度上决定了单位耕地面积的产量水平^[11] ...

2011

0.0

... 耕地利用集约度是指在生产过程中单位面积的耕地上投放的资本和劳动的数量^[9,10],一定程度上决定了单位耕地面积的产量水平^[11] ...

2009

0.0

2.937

Chen

Yuqi

, Li

Xiubin.

Structural change of agricultural land use intensity and its regional disparity in China.

Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(4): 469-478.

[陈瑜琦, 李秀彬. 1980年以来中国耕地利用集约度的结构特征. 地理学报, 2009, 64(4): 469-478. ]

Based on the cost-income data of farm produce and the China Agricultural Yearbook, this paper divided the intensity of cultivated land use into labor intensity and capital intensity, then analyzed their temporal and spatial change at both country and provincial scale in the period of 1980-2006. The results showed that: (1) On country scale, labor intensity of food crop farming decreased from 398.5 day/ha in 1980 to 130.25 day/ha in 2006; and shows a continuous decrease with a steep decline in 1980-1986, a slower decline in 1987-1996, and another steep decline in 1997-2006. On the contrary, capital intensity shows an increasing trend from 1980. In the internal composition of capital intensity, the proportion of seed, chemical fertilizer and pesticide input decreased from 90.36% to 73.44% ; the proportion of machinery increased from 9.64% to 26.56% . The less emphasis on yieldincreasing input and more emphasis on labor-saving input are the main reasons for a slow increase of yield per unit area after 1996. (2) On provincial scale, the economically developed areas have lower labor intensity and higher capital intensity. The less developed areas have higher labor intensity but lower capital intensity. From the internal composition of capital intensity view, labor-saving input accounts for more proportion in the developed areas than other areas. That is because in these developed areas, as more and more labors engaged in off-farm work, labor input has become a constraint factor in food production. Farmers increase the labor-saving input for higher labor productivity. However, in less developed areas, the major constraint is the shortage of capital; food production is still depending on labor and yield-increasing inputs.

1. Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

基于中国农产品成本收益资料与中国农业统计年鉴等基础数据, 在对耕地利用集约度进行内部结构划分的基础上, 系统分析了1980-2006 年间中国粮食作物劳动集约度和资本集约度及其构成的时空变化规律。结果表明：国家尺度上的劳动集约度由1980 年的398.5 日 /hm 2 快速降低到2006 年的130.25 日/hm 2 , 下降幅度达67.37%, 下降的阶段性明显。资本集约度总量不断上升, 其中种子、化肥和农药等增产性资本投入比重逐渐减小, 在四大资本投入类型中所占比重由90.36% (1980 年) 下降到73.44% (2006 年), 相反, 作为省工性投入的机械, 所占比重由9.64% (1980 年) 迅速增加到26.56% (2006 年), 资本投入的内部结构变化逐渐成为影响中国粮食单产的重要因素。区域尺度上, 经济发达地区劳动投入相对较少, 资本投入, 尤其是省工性资本投入比重较大, 农户在耕地利用中更加注重追求劳动生产率；而经济相对落后地区劳动集约度较高, 资本集约度较低, 资本投入中仍以增产性投入为主, 体现了当地农民在耕地利用中追求土地生产率最大化的经营目标。

... 耕地利用集约度是指在生产过程中单位面积的耕地上投放的资本和劳动的数量^[9,10],一定程度上决定了单位耕地面积的产量水平^[11] ...

2012

0.0

2.937

Xie

Hualin

, Zou

Jinlang

, Peng

Xiaolin.

Spatial-temporal difference analysis of cultivated land use intensity based on emergy in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone.

Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(7): 889-902.

[谢花林, 邹金浪, 彭小琳. 基于能值的鄱阳湖生态经济区耕地利用集约度时空差异分析. 地理学报, 2012, 67(7): 889-902. ]

This paper introduces a measurement method for cultivated land use intensity by using indexes of farming input with its emergy terms, which is applied by taking Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone as a research object. This paper conducts an analysis of the time series feature of labor intensity, agricultural machinery intensity, fertilizer intensity, pesticide intensity and agricultural film intensity in the study area from 2000 to 2009. Then, taking the five emergy indexes as a common basis, temporal and spatial changes of cultivated land use intensity as a whole are analyzed. Results are drawn as follows. 1) In the 10-year period, cultivated land use intensity increases exponentially in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone; the agricultural machinery intensity has the largest proportion of the total inputs, exceeding 99.50%, and increases year by year, which indicates that the agricultural mechanization is the general trend of agricultural development in the zone. 2) The total number of counties belonging to highly and less intensive use of cultivated land is the largest, while that belonging to further and extensive use of cultivated land is the smallest. 3) This zone can be divided into five areas of cultivated land: eastern area with further use, central-eastern area with less intensive use, central area with highly intensive use, southern area of moderate intensive use, and northern area of moderate intensive use. 4) The counties with cultivated land use Intensity level coordinating its economic development increase year by year and the socio-economic development has more and more obviously effects on the cultivated land use intensity. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions on development plan of intensive cultivated land use in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, especially in the counties at different levels of intensive land use.

1. Institute of Poyang Lake Eco-economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China; 2. Institute of Land & Resources and Sustainable Development, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Yunnan 650221, China

以鄱阳湖生态经济区为例, 采用能值形态从投入指标测度耕地的利用集约度, 系统分析了研究区2000-2009 年间耕地的劳动力集约度、机械化集约度、化肥集约度、农药集约度和地膜集约度的时序特征, 然后以这5 种投入能值为基准对研究区耕地利用集约度的整体特征及其时空差异进行分析。结果表明:① 10 年间, 鄱阳湖生态经济区耕地利用集约度呈指数增加, 其中农业机械集约度的比重最大, 达到了99.50%以上, 且逐年上升, 农业机械化成为研究区农业发展的基本趋势;② 耕地属于高度集约利用和低度集约利用的县(市) 最多, 属于精细利用和粗放利用的县(市) 最少;③ 鄱阳湖生态经济区可划分为东部耕地精细利用区、中东部耕地低度集约利用区、中部耕地高度集约利用区、南部和北部耕地中度集约利用区5 个区;④ 耕地利用集约度与社会经济发展水平相协调的县(市) 逐年增加, 社会经济发展水平对当地耕地集约利用水平影响越来越明显。

... 耕地能否集约利用不仅关系到农民增收问题,还关系到区域可持续发展和国家粮食安全战略^[12],具有重大的现实意义 ...

1996

0.0

... 然而,城镇化过程中农民农业生产积极性下降导致的耕地边际化问题日益严重^[13,14],学术界予以了密切关注 ...

2010

0.0

... 然而,城镇化过程中农民农业生产积极性下降导致的耕地边际化问题日益严重^[13,14],学术界予以了密切关注 ...

2009

0.0

2.031

Zhu

Xiaoqian.

Analysis on intensive use of cultivated land and its driving forces in Anhui Province.

China Land Science, 2009, 23(2): 11-17.

[祝小迁. 安徽省耕地集约利用及其驱动力分析. 中国土地科学, 2009, 23(2): 11-17. ]

研究目的:分析近10年来安徽省耕地集约利用变化及其驱动力.研究方法:综合指数评价法、聚类分析法、因子分析法.研究结果:(1)全省耕地集约利用水平时序变化性明显.从"十五"期间和"九五"期间相比来看,除滁州、六安、黄山三个地市以外,全省其他14个地市的耕地利用集约度都有不同程度的提高.(2)全省耕地利用集约度空间差异显著,总体上呈北高南低的特点.(3)社会经济因素、耕作制度因素和自然因素是影响安徽省耕地集约利用的主要驱动因子.研究结论:应用综合评价法进行耕地利用集约度评价以及采用因子分析法进行驱动力分析,评价结果与现实情况基本吻合,具有一定的可行性.

2000

2.859

0.0

Lambin E

, Rounsevell

M D A

, Geist

H J

. Are agricultural land -use models able to predict changes in land -use intensity? Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2000, 82: 321-331

2011

0.0

1.691

... 农户微观视角下,耕地资源利用是一种农户行为,农户作为理性个体,对生产投入的选择遵循特定成本约束下的收入最大化原则,耕地集约利用程度正是微观行为主体农户某种经济行为方式的结果^[17] ...

2008

0.0

0.3476

... 随着中国市场经济发展,农户经济行为呈现出由生存理性向经济理性转变^[18],农户的整体行为更符合理性原则,为农户行为研究提供了理论基础 ...

2012

0.0

2.937

Xiaojian

, Zhou

Xiongfei

, Zheng

Chunhui

et al. Development of specialized villages in various environments of less developed China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(6): 783-792.

[李小建, 周雄飞, 郑纯辉等. 欠发达区地理环境对专业村发展的影响研究. 地理学报, 2012, 67(6): 783-792. ]

Theoretical framework on formation of specialized villages was proposed by using rational small household, division of labour and specialization and distance decay and neighbourhood affect theories. These theories from economics and geography determined the formation of specialized villages, but the types of the specialization are related to resources endeavor and environmental conditions of the villages. The paper illustrates the change of the economic structure of villages by applying mathematical models, stating that various geographical conditions surrounding a village leads to different marginal production efficiency, therefore forming specified production structure. If a village's environment proves suitable for certain production or service, then a relevant type of specialized village may emerge. Based on theoretical analysis, we use the census data of specialized villages in Henan Province in 2010, applying dummy variables representing 16 types of specialized villages, and selecting environmental variables such as landform, location, arable land area and labour force from a spatial database from government authorities. The regression results from the OLS models indicate a significant impact of village environmental conditions on village specialization: (1) more labour force leads to lower specialization; (2) abundant arable land benefits specialization; (3) the closer location to its county site results in higher probability of specialization on agricultural processing industry; (4) existence of a wholesale market may increase specialization on relevant villages, especially for agricultural processing and animal husbandry industries; (5) the villages located in hilly terrain show less probability on specialization than others, mainly caused by difficulties in transportation and shortage in arable land; while mountainous environment provides resources for the development of specialization. Results from qualitative models indicate diverse environmental impact in different types of specialized villages. Positive impacts of land availability are observed in tea plantation, tree nursery and fruit farm. Labour force assists the formation of labour intensive production such as floristry. Accessibility benefits specialization in fruit, vegetable production and floristry. Results of this study can be applied to policy making for guidance of specialization under various environmental conditions.

1. Department of Resourses and Enviroment, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450002, China; 2. Institute of Economics, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450002, China; 3. Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China; 4. Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA

基于经济学和地理学中的“理性小农”、“劳动分工与专业化”和“距离衰减与邻里效应”理论,并考虑资源环境条件,建立了解释专业村形成机理和形成类型的理论框架。用数理方法推理了村产业结构的发展变化和专业村的形成。在理论分析的基础上,运用2010 年河南省的专业村数据,选择地形、区位、土地和劳动力等环境变量和16 类专业村的虚拟变量,使用最小二乘法进行回归,结果表明村环境资源条件对专业化率有显著影响:① 村劳动力资源越多,专业化率越低;② 村土地越多越利于专业化生产;③ 村离县级市距离越近,越有利于形成农产品加工专业村;④ 具有批发市场可以提高所有专业村的专业化率,对养殖业和加工业专业村更是如此;⑤如果其他环境相同,丘陵地区的专业化率比其他地区低;这主要与丘陵地区交通条件不畅、人均耕地较少等有关。采用定性模型分析表明:环境影响在不同类别的专业村有所不同。土地丰裕程度对茶叶、林业和水果种植等类专业村形成有正面影响,劳动力资源对花卉等专业村的形成产生影响;地域通达性对水果、蔬菜和花卉等时鲜产品专业村的形成产生正面影响。该研究结果的实践引申,在不同环境条件的地区,可以制定相应的适宜专业化发展的引导政策。

... 决策,会综合考虑各种环境和资源条件,尽最大可能配置要素以获取最大效益^[19]和生产要素配置效率^[20] ...

2010

0.0

... 决策,会综合考虑各种环境和资源条件,尽最大可能配置要素以获取最大效益^[19]和生产要素配置效率^[20] ...

2010

0.0

... 城乡发展转型期,我国人多地少的国情没有改变,但2亿多农民工非农就业和人口生育率下降、劳动力自然增长率减慢,导致务农人数续下降^[21],进而造成我国家庭#cod#x0201c ...

2007

0.0

... 就农户家庭内部分工而言,家庭成员个体层面的专业化与家庭整体层面的专业多样化统一,引致迂回经济的发展,促进了农民个体土地经营规模的扩大和小农经济效率的提高,使得兼业化成为长期组织均衡形态^[22] ...

2007

0.0

Chen

Jianfei

, Wei

Suqiong

, Chang

Kangtsung

et al. A comparative case study of cultivated land changes in Fujian and Taiwan. Land Use Policy, 2007, 24(2): 386-395.

Abstract In this study we chose Fujian and Taiwan for a comparative case study of cultivated land changes. Separated by a short strait, these two regions are similar in biophysical and cultural characteristics but differ in the level of economic development. Taiwan is ahead of Fujian by 15 to 20 years in economic development. We compared quantitative and qualitative changes of cultivated land in these two regions, and analyzed the proximate causes and the driving forces for cultivated land changes over time. The study showed a time lag, similar to that of economic development, in the dynamic (i.e., greater rates of change) period of cultivated land changes and the ranking of major driving forces. The results suggest that similar land-use changes can occur in different regions as the regions pass through comparable stages of economic development at different times.

... 耕地质量是影响耕地集约利用的自然基础条件,一般耕地质量较好、相同投入条件下产出较高,反映了地区耕地资源的本底特征,采用耕地标准系数度量^[23] ...

2007

0.0

... 如果存在多重共线性问题,则进入到下一步骤,④ 通过岭迹图求取参数k值,建立岭回归模型^[24] ...