1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响

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刘洛, 徐新良, 刘纪远, 陈曦, 宁佳. 1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响. 69(12): 1767-1778
LIU Luo, XU Xinliang, LIU Jiyuan, CHEN Xi, NING Jia. Impact of farmland changes on production potential in China during recent two decades. Acte Geographica Sinica, 69(12): 1767-1778 复制到剪切板

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1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响

刘洛^1,^2,³, 徐新良², 刘纪远², 陈曦¹, 宁佳^2,³

1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830011

2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京 100101

3. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

徐新良 (1972-), 男, 山东青岛人, 博士, 副研究员, 硕士生导师, 主要从事土地利用土地覆被变化研究。E-mail: xuxl@lreis.ac.cn

作者简介：刘洛 (1987-), 男, 汉族, 湖南益阳人, 博士研究生, 主要从事土地利用土地覆被变化研究。E-mail: liuluo87930@qq.com

基金:国家科技支撑计划 (2013BAC03B01); 中国科学院西部行动计划项目 (KZCX2-XB3-08-01); 高分辨率对地观测系统重大专项 (05-Y30B02-9001-13/15-10)

摘要

1990年以来,在国家生态环境保护工程实施、经济快速增长等因素的影响下,中国耕地数量与空间格局发生了巨大变化,对粮食生产潜力造成了巨大影响。本文采用GAEZ模型,结合中国气象、地形、土壤等因素,定量分析了中国耕地粮食生产潜力空间特征以及1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响。主要结论如下：① 2010年全国耕地粮食生产潜力总量为10.55亿t,全国耕地平均粮食生产潜力为7614 kg/hm²。中国耕地粮食生产潜力存在显著的空间差异,总体表现为东部高而西北部较低的趋势,并且高值区主要分布在长江中下游地区和华南区。② 1990-2010年的20年间,中国耕地粮食生产潜力变化表现出明显的时空差异,总体呈现南减北增、总量减少的基本特征。新增耕地粮食生产潜力的重心逐步由东北向西北转移。耕地粮食生产潜力总量净减少297万t,占2010年全国实际粮食总产量的0.29%。③ 在1990-2000年与2000-2010年两个时期,耕地变化对耕地粮食生产潜力影响差异明显。前10年,耕地粮食生产潜力总量净增加1011万t,主要集中在东北平原区和北方干旱半干旱区;后10年,耕地粮食生产潜力总量净减少1308万t,主要集中在长江中下游地区和黄淮海平原区。从总体看,近20年来耕地粮食生产潜力总量增加主要是由林、草地和未利用土地开垦所导致,而耕地粮食生产潜力总量减少主要是由城市扩展和退耕还林还草所导致。

关键词: 耕地; 粮食生产潜力; GAEZ模型; 中国

Impact of farmland changes on production potential in China during recent two decades

LIU Luo^1,^2,³, XU Xinliang², LIU Jiyuan², CHEN Xi¹, NING Jia^2,³

1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China

2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Fund:National Key Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs, No.2013BAC03B01; No.STSN-14-00; Project of CAS Action-plan for West Development, No. KZCX2-XB3-08-01; Important National Project of High-resolution Earth Observation System, No.05-Y30B02-9001-13/15-10

Abstract

Quantity and spatial pattern of farmland has changed, which leads to significant change of farmland potential productivity under the influence of national ecological environmental protection project and the rapidly increased economic growth during the last two decades. In this study, farmland potential productivity in China was calculated based on meteorological data, terrain elevation data, soil data and land use data in 1990, 2000 and 2010 by using the Globe Agricultural Ecology Zone model (GAEZ). Then, the changes in farmland potential productivity in response to farmland change from 1990 to 2000 were subsequently analyzed. (1) In 2010, total farmland potential productivity is 1.055 billion tons in China, and the average farmland potential productivity is 7614 kg/hm², which shows tremendous heterogeneity in spatial pattern. The productivity in eastern China is high, while that of northwestern China is low. High value region of farmland potential productivity is mainly distributed in South China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. (2) The obvious tempo-spatial heterogeneity of farmland change from 1990 to 2010 has a significant influence on the farmland potential productivity in China. The trend shows the farmland potential productivity decreased in southern China and increased in northern China. Furthermore, the gravity of the growth of farmland potential productivity moves gradually from northeastern to northwestern China. The net decrease of farmland potential productivity is 2.97 billion tons, which occupies 0.29% of the national total productivity. (3) There is a huge difference of the farmland potential productivity in response to farmland change between two periods from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010. During the first decade, net increase in the cultivated land areas is 10.11 billion tons, which primarily spread across Northeast China Plain and arid and semiarid regions of North China. During the next decade, net decrease in the cultivated land areas is 13.08 billion tons, primarily distributed in the middle and lower Yangtze River region and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. In general, during the last two decades, the reason for the increase of the farmland potential productivity may contribute to the reclamation of grassland, woodland and unused land, and the reason for the decrease of the farmland potential productivity may result from the urbanization that occupies the cultivated land and Green for Grain Project that returns farmland to forests and grasslands.

Keyword: farmland; production potential; GAEZ model; China

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1 引言

粮食是关系国民生计的特殊商品和重要战略储备资源, 粮食安全是国家安全的重要组成部分。作为人口众多的发展中国家, 中国的粮食安全问题对世界粮食安全具有重要影响, 始终受到国内外学者的广泛关注^[7]。影响粮食生产的因素很多, 如制度与政策的创新、科技进步、物质和劳动的投入、耕地和气候资源变化等因素^{[1, 2, 3]}。耕地资源是农业生产最基本的物质条件, 耕地数量和质量的变化直接影响粮食产量, 从而影响到粮食有效供给^[4]。中国目前正处在工业化、城市化进程加快和生态文明建设的重要时期, 耕地资源日益受到工业和城市土地利用的竞争, 部分耕地非农化的趋势不可逆转, 这已严重地影响到国家的粮食安全, 并引起了国内外的广泛关注^[4]。

过去20年, 由于开垦耕地、城市化侵占耕地以及退耕还林还草等的影响, 中国的耕地资源在面积、空间分布和质量上都发生了巨大变化^{[2, 3, 4, 5]}。为了揭示区域耕地资源变化及其对粮食生产和粮食安全的影响, 国内外学者开展了大量研究。例如, 刘纪远等分析了20世纪90年代中国LUCC过程对农田光温生产潜力总量和区域分异的影响^[5]; 闫慧敏等分析了中国城市化进程和退耕还林草生态工程对耕地的分布与生产力的影响^[6]; 石淑芹等分析了东北地区耕地数量、质量和作物种植制度等对粮食生产能力的影响^[7]; 徐新良等则揭示了气候波动与LUCC过程对东北农田生产潜力的影响^[8]。从上述研究可以看出, 目前研究主要针对区域耕地变化以及粮食生产和安全问题。在全球粮食安全危机的背景下, 从国家尺度的宏观层面, 系统地揭示耕地资源变化格局和态势, 及其导致的粮食生产潜力的变化及其区域差异, 还有待继续深入。为提高中国粮食产量, 增强农业生产抵御风险的综合能力, 2009年中国政府开始核定全国耕地增产潜力及其区域分布, 并对过去土地生产力的变化进行了科学的分析与评估^[9]。因此, 总结归纳中国耕地资源时空过程, 准确掌握耕地开垦和损失导致的粮食生产力变化及其区域分布, 对进一步把握耕地供需规律及耕地变化与粮食安全的关系, 巩固粮食生产基础和保障粮食安全具有重要的战略意义。

本研究针对20世纪90年代以来中国耕地发生的巨大变化, 结合1990年、2000年、2010年三期耕地数据、30年来的气象数据、土壤数据和高程DEM数据, 采用GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zones) 模型综合考虑光、温、水、CO₂浓度、病虫害、农业气候限制、土壤、地形等多方面因素, 估算了中国粮食生产潜力, 进而分析了耕地变化导致的粮食生产潜力的变化、空间分布以及变化原因, 以揭示1990-2010年来中国耕地变化对粮食生产力影响的空间格局及区域差异规律。

2 数据与方法

2.1 数据来源

本研究的输入数据主要包括耕地数据、地形高程数据、气象数据和土壤数据。

耕地数据包含1990年、2000年和2010年三期, 来源于中国科学院资源环境数据中心的全国土地利用数据库。该数据库是在国家科技支撑计划、中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目等多项重大科技项目的支持下经过多年的积累而建立的覆盖全国陆地区域的多时相1:10万比例尺土地利用现状数据集^{[10, 11, 12, 13]}。该数据集是以Landsat TM/ETM遥感影像为主要数据源, 通过人工目视解译生成。土地利用类型包括耕地、林地、草地、水域、居民地和未利用土地6个一级类型以及25个二级类型。通过野外调查实地验证, 土地利用一级类型综合评价精度达到94.3%以上, 满足1:10万比例尺用户制图精度^{[14, 15]}。本研究利用GIS技术, 从三期土地利用现状数据集中提取耕地空间分布数据用于开展1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响研究。

地形高程数据来源于美国奋进号航天飞机的雷达地形测绘 (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, SRTM) 数据。SRTM数据有现实性强、免费获取等优点, 全球许多应用研究都采用SRTM数据开展环境分析^[16]。

气象数据是基于中国气象局的760多个气象观测站点的1980-2010年的月平均数据, 包括最高气温、最低气温、降水量、相对湿度、10 m高度处的风速和日照时数, 在考虑地形高程差异的条件下使用ANUSPLIN软件进行空间插值, 获得全国1 km× 1 km的月气象要素空间格网数据^{[17, 18, 19]}, 以此作为粮食生产潜力计算的气候条件基础。

土壤数据来源于中国科学院资源与环境科学数据中心1:100万全国土壤数据集, 包括土壤类型、土壤成分、土壤深度和土壤持水力等属性。

2.2 研究方法

(1) 耕地变化分析方法。耕地变化分析是利用GIS的空间分析方法从1990年、2000年和2010年三期耕地数据集中获取耕地面积数量和空间格局特征, 进而获取1990-2000年和2000-2010年前后两期耕地变化的面积数量和空间格局特征, 以及耕地与其他土地利用类型之间的转换特征, 如林、草地开垦导致的耕地扩张和退耕还林还草以及城市扩张导致的耕地损失特征。

(2) 粮食生产潜力方法。本研究粮食生产潜力的估算采用了GAEZ模型, 该模型是由FAO (联合国粮农组织)和IIASA (国际应用系统研究所) 共同研发的近30年的大尺度土地生产力模型。GAEZ模型首先根据气候条件估算种植某种作物的气候适宜性, 然后对适宜种植的作物, 采用逐级限制法来计算土地粮食生产潜力, 即按光合生产潜力 (仅光照限制)— 光温生产潜力 (光照和温度限制)— 气候生产潜力 (光照、温度和水分限制)— 土地生产潜力 (光照、温度、水分和土壤限制)— 农业生产潜力 (农业投入水平、经营管理方法等限制)^{[20, 21, 22, 23]} (图1)。本研究采用GAEZ模型计算了1980-2010年平均气候条件下的粮食生产潜力, 主要考虑了小麦 (4个品种)、玉米 (4个品种)、水稻 (2个品种)、大豆和甘薯五种作物。这五种作物是中国主要的粮食作物, 约占粮食总产量的97.7%^[24]。计算过程中结合耕地分布数据, 水稻仅能在水田上种植, 而其他作物在旱地上种植。

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	图1 GAEZ模型结构图Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of overall structure and data integration of GAEZ

中国大部分地区都采用多熟制耕作制度, 故在估算总粮食生产潜力时需要考虑作物的多熟制^[25]。本文根据GAEZ模型计算的潜在熟制结合中国实际种植制度, 考虑了多种熟制的经验方式组合 (包括一年两熟、两年三熟、一年三熟) 来获取最大土地粮食生产潜力。

GAEZ模型包含灌溉和雨养两种模拟情景。雨养条件下仅考虑降水对作物产量的影响, 而灌溉条件则假设水分充足, 即不考虑水分对作物的影响。灌溉和雨养情景下的生产潜力利用灌溉比例数据获得最终粮食生产潜力^[26], 具体方法如下：

$\begin{matrix} yiel d_{total} = y iel d_{rain - fed} (1 - i) + yiel d_{irrigated} \times i \end{matrix}$ (1)

式中：yield_totol是粮食总生产潜力; yield_rain-fed是指雨养条件下的粮食生产潜力; yield_irrigated指在灌溉条件下的粮食生产潜力; i (%) 是从中国国家统计局得到的全国各县 (市) 灌溉面积与总耕地面积的比率。

3 结果与分析

3.1 结果验证

为了对基于GAEZ模型估算的中国耕地粮食生产潜力进行验证, 利用2010年月气候数据和2010年耕地数据估算了2010年中国耕地的粮食生产潜力, 从估算结果看, 2010年全国耕地平均粮食生产潜力为8316 kg/hm², 是全国实际粮食平均产量统计值的1.55倍。以全国各县 (市) 为统计单元, 统计各县 (市) 2010年耕地粮食生产潜力总量, 并用2010年全国各县 (市) 粮食产量统计数据进行比较 (图2)。

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	图2 2010年中国各县 (市) 粮食生产潜力总量与实际粮食产量的对比Fig. 2 Comparison between potential and actual production in each county of China in 2010

图中虚线表示估算的各县 (市) 粮食生产潜力总量与实际粮食产量的相关趋势线, 从两者的拟合情况来看, 各县 (市) 粮食生产潜力总量与实际粮食产量的相关系数为0.82, 标准差为0.74万t, 两者相关性较好, 实际粮食总产量为估算结果的65.4%, 因此各县 (市) 粮食生产潜力总量的变化在很大程度上能反映实际粮食产量的变化趋势。

3.2 2010年中国耕地粮食生产潜力空间特征

为研究中国1990-2010年耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响, 假设气候条件、地形高程和土壤要素不变的前提下, 且气候数据为从1980年到2010年月平均气候要素, 分析仅由耕地变化所导致的粮食生产潜力变化。

2010年中国耕地粮食生产潜力总量为10.55亿t, 中国耕地平均粮食生产潜力为7614 kg/hm²。全国耕地粮食生产总潜力空间格局呈现东部生产总潜力高, 西北部生产力较低的趋势 (图3)。这主要是由于中国耕地资源空间分布不均, 东部地形平坦、土壤肥沃、水热条件较好, 而西部地区地形复杂、土壤退化、水热条件较差。从全国耕地粮食生产潜力空间分异看, 长江中下游地区是中国耕地粮食生产潜力最高的地区, 其总产量达到32842.71万t, 遥遥领先其他地区, 该地区亦是中国经济发展最快的地区, 故成为了用地矛盾最突出的地方; 青藏高原区是中国耕地粮食生产潜力最少的地区, 其总产量仅为213.23万t。该区域人烟稀少, 耕地数量少, 耕地质量差, 水分和热量条件均不利于作物的生长发育。华南区耕地最大粮食生产潜力为25989 kg/hm², 远远高于中国其他区域, 该地区雨水充沛、温度适宜作物生长、太阳辐射较大、作物生长期较长等因素促使中国最大耕地粮食生产潜力存在于该区域。此外, 中国农田平均单产最大的地方也分布在长江中下游地区, 其平均产量为12089 kg/hm² (图4)。

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	图3 2010年中国耕地粮食生产潜力空间分布图 (kg/hm²)Fig. 3 Distribution of farmland potential production of China in 2005 (kg/hm²)

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	图4 2010年中国耕地粮食生产潜力统计图Fig. 4 Statistics of potential production of China in 2010

3.3 中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响

3.3.1 1990-2010年中国耕地变化基本特征 1990-2010年, 中国耕地总量基本保持平衡, 但在前后两个10年耕地数量变化表现出不同的特征。1990-2000年耕地面积净增加2.83万km², 耕地总量变化总体趋势是南减北增, 新增耕地主要集中在北方干旱半干旱区的东部, 耕地减少主要发生在长江中下游地区 (图5); 2000-2010年耕地净减少1.02万km², 主要是由于东部沿海地区城镇居民工矿用地的扩张和中西部生态脆弱区退耕还林还草占用了大量耕地, 此外北方干旱半干旱区的西部也发生局部地区耕地开垦现象 (图6)。

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	图5 1990-2000年中国耕地动态变化图Fig. 5 Map of farmland change in China from 1990 to 2000

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	图6 2000-2010年中国耕地动态变化图Fig. 6 Map of farmland change in China from 2000 to 2010

1990-2010年, 城镇扩展是导致中国耕地面积减少的主要原因。前10年, 城镇扩展占用耕地占该时期耕地减少总面积的45.96%; 后10年, 城镇扩展占用耕地占该时期耕地减少面积的55.44%。随着中国城市化进程的加快, 建设用地占用耕地的年均速率已由1990-2000年的每年约200万亩, 激增到2000-2010年的每年300万亩以上, 因此耕地保护与城镇化之间的矛盾进一步凸显。林、草地与耕地之间的转换亦是导致耕地面积变化的另一个主要原因。前10年, 由于林、草地与耕地转换, 耕地净增加4.05万km², 但这种增加是以牺牲生态环境质量为代价的; 后10年, 林、草地与耕地转换, 耕地仅净增加0.93万km², 主要是由于中国开始注重生态保护, 全国大范围实施退耕还林还草工程, 从而导致耕地面积增长较前期明显减少。

3.3.2 中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响 1990-2010年, 由于耕地变化导致中国粮食生产潜力变化的基本特点是：南减北增, 总量减少, 新增耕地粮食生产潜力的重心逐步由东北向西北转移。耕地粮食生产潜力新增4589万t, 减少4886万t, 净减少297万t, 占2010年全国粮食总产量的0.29% (表1)。

表1 1990-2010年中国耕地粮食生产潜力总量变化及空间分布格局 Tab. 1 Distribution of changes in farmland potential productivity in China during 1990-2010

时段	变化类型	主要原因	变化总量 (万t)	变化比例 (%)	空间分布
1990-2000	增加	耕地扩张 (毁林、毁草开垦), 占增长总量的81.5%。	3486.89	3.30	主要分布于东北平原区和北方干旱半干旱区 (图5), 分别占增加总量的47.8%和40.0%。
1990-2000	减少	城镇扩展侵占耕地和退耕还林还草, 分别占减少总量的52.8%和32.3%。	-2475.89	-2.34	主要集中在长江中下游地区、北方干旱半干旱地区和黄淮海平原区 (图5), 分别占减少总量的27.8%、25.8%和23.5%。
2000-2010	增加	未利用地和草地开垦, 分别占增加总量的48.7%和27.3%。	1101.83	1.03	主要集中在北方干旱半干旱区 (图6), 占增加总量的64.1%。
2000-2010	减少	城市扩展侵占耕地资源, 占减少总量的66.0%。	-2410.28	-2.26	主要集中在长江中下游地区和黄淮海平原区 (图6), 分别占耕地粮食生产潜力减少总量的38.0%和22.6%。

1990-2000年耕地变化使中国粮食生产潜力总量净增加1011万t, 耕地粮食生产潜力增加总量为减少总量的1.4倍, 但这种净增长是以损失优质传统耕地资源和毁坏自然生态环境为代价的。耕地粮食生产潜力增加的区域主要集中在东北平原区和北方干旱半干旱区, 分别占耕地粮食生产潜力增加总量的47.8%和40.0%。耕地粮食生产潜力增加主要来源于林草地开垦, 林草地开垦所导致的耕地粮食生产潜力增加总量占粮食生产潜力增长总量的81.5%。而耕地粮食生产潜力减少的区域主要集中在长江中下游地区、北方干旱半干旱地区和黄淮海平原区, 分别占耕地粮食生产潜力减少总量的27.8%、25.8%和23.5%。耕地粮食生产潜力减少主要以城市扩展侵占用耕地资源为主, 城市扩展侵占耕地所导致的粮食生产潜力减少总量占耕地粮食生产潜力减少总量的52.8% (图7), 此外退耕还林还草也导致部分耕地资源损失, 减少的粮食生产潜力占减少总量的32.3%。

表1 1990-2010年中国耕地粮食生产潜力总量变化及空间分布格局 Tab. 1 Distribution of changes in farmland potential productivity in China during 1990-2010

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	图7 1990-2000年中国耕地粮食生产潜力变化图 (kg/hm²)Fig. 7 Changes of farmland potential production of China from 1990 to 2000 (kg/hm²)

2000-2010年耕地变化导致中国粮食生产潜力总量净减少1308万t, 耕地粮食生产潜力减少总量是增加总量的2.19倍。耕地粮食生产潜力减少区域主要集中在长江中下游地区和黄淮海平原区, 分别占耕地粮食生产潜力减少总量的38.0%和22.6%。耕地粮食生产潜力的减少主要是由于城市扩展侵占了大量耕地资源, 城市扩展侵占耕地所导致的粮食生产潜力减少总量占耕地粮食生产潜力下降总量的66.0%。而耕地粮食生产潜力增长区域主要集中在北方干旱半干旱区, 占耕地粮食生产潜力增加总量的64.1%。该区域耕地粮食生产潜力的增加主要是由于未利用地和草地开垦, 分别占耕地粮食生产潜力增加总量的48.7%和27.3% (图8)。

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	图8 2000-2010年中国耕地粮食生产潜力变化图 (kg/hm²)Fig. 8 Changes of farmland potential production of China from 2000 to 2010 (kg/hm²)

3.2.2 不同区域耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响 1990-2010年, 各地区耕地变化对粮食生产潜力影响区域差异明显, 1990-2010年各地区耕地变化对粮食生产潜力影响的区域典型特征如下 (表2和表3)。

表2 1990-2000年中国各地区耕地变化对粮食生产潜力影响统计表 Tab. 2 Impacts of regional farmland change on grain potential productivity in China during 1990-2000

表3 2000-2010年中国各地区耕地变化对粮食生产潜力影响统计表 Tab. 3 Impacts of regional farmland change on grain potential productivity in China during 2000-2010

东北平原1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加1917万t, 减少378万t, 净增加1539万t, 其中1990-2000年粮食生产潜力增加1672万t, 减少222万t, 净增加1450万t, 增加量与净增加量位居全国第一。主要由于北部地区大量的林草地被开垦为耕地, 此外中部地区也有少数耕地发生退耕还林还草。2000-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加245万t, 减少156万t, 净增加89万t。林草地和未利用土地开垦, 是该时期耕地粮食生产潜力增长的主要因素, 但也存在退耕还林还草和城镇化侵占耕地的现象, 使得粮食生产潜力增长的幅度较前期有所减弱。

云贵高原区1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加96万t, 减少149万t, 净减少53万吨, 其中1990-2000年粮食生产潜力增加72万t, 减少76万t, 净减少4万t, 该区域出现大量林、草地和耕地相互转换的现象, 且有少量建设用地扩展占用耕地, 但耕地粮食生产潜力总体相对稳定。2000-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加24万t, 减少72万t, 净减少48万t。退耕还林和建设用地扩展占用耕地是该时期耕地粮食生产潜力减少的主要原因, 此外该区东北部存在少量草地开垦现象。

北方干旱半干旱区1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加2086万t, 减少864万t, 净增加1222万t, 其中1990-2000年耕地粮食生产潜力增加1380万t, 减少637万t, 净增加743万t。大量草地开垦是该时期耕地粮食生产潜力增加的主要原因, 但中部黄河和河套平原局部地区退耕还草成效显著。2000-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加706万t, 减少227万t, 净增加479万t。新疆大面积草地和未利用地开垦是该时期粮食生产潜力增加的主要因素, 但中部地区存在一定的量的退耕还草现象。

华南区1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加33万t, 减少324万t, 净减少291万t, 其中1990-2000年耕地粮食生产潜力增加24万t, 减少134万t, 净减少109万t。南部地区存在退耕还林、退耕还湖以及城镇化侵占耕地现象, 使得粮食生产潜力有所减少。2000-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加8万t, 减少190万t, 净减少182万t。该时期城镇化侵占了大量耕地, 致使耕地粮食生产潜力严重减少。

四川盆地及周边地区1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加11万t, 减少192万t, 净减少181万t, 其中1990-2000年耕地粮食生产潜力增加10万t, 减少67万t, 净减少57万t。耕地粮食生产潜力变化主要集中在东部地区, 以城镇扩展占用耕地为主。2000-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加2万t, 减少125万t, 净减少123万t。该区东部地区城镇扩展占用了大量耕地, 致使粮食生产潜力大量减少。

长江中下游地区1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加147万t, 减少1602万t, 净减少1456万t, 其中1990-2000年耕地粮食生产潜力增加90万t, 减少686万t, 净减少597万吨; 2000-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加57万t, 减少916万t, 净减少859597万t。该区前后2个时段耕地粮食生产潜力减少量和净减少量均居全国第一, 大量的城镇化侵占耕地以及退耕还湖, 是导致耕地粮食生产潜力大量减少的主要原因。

青藏高原区1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加12万t, 减少9万t, 净增加3万t, 其中1990-2000年耕地粮食生产潜力增加10万t, 减少3万t, 净增加7万t。2000-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加2万t, 减少6万t, 净减少5万t。该区耕地稳定少动, 粮食生产潜力基本无变化。

黄土高原区1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加67万t, 减少243万t, 净减少176万t, 其中1990-2000年耕地粮食生产潜力增加55万t, 减少69万t, 净减少14万t。2000-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加13万t, 减少174万t, 净减少161万t。退耕还林还草以及城镇扩展占用耕地是该区耕地粮食生产潜力减少的主要原因。

黄淮海平原区1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加129万t, 减少1125万t, 净减少906万t, 其中1990-2000年耕地粮食生产潜力增加174万t, 减少581万t, 净减少407万t。2000-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力增加45万t, 减少544万t, 净减少499万t。大量城镇化侵占耕地是该区粮食生产潜力减少的最主要原因。同时该区南部也存在林草地和湖泊开垦现象。

1990-2010年的20年间, 在国家生态环境保护工程实施、经济快速增长等因素的影响下, 中国的耕地数量与空间格局发生了巨大变化, 直接对粮食生产潜力造成了巨大的影响。本文从耕地粮食生产潜力模拟方法和耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响出发, 以中国五种主要的粮食作物为研究对象, 采用GAEZ模型, 定量分析了中国耕地粮食生产潜力空间特征, 以及1990-2000年和2000-2010年两个典型时期的耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响。研究的主要结论如下：

(1) 2010年全国耕地粮食生产总潜力总量为10.55亿t, 全国耕地平均粮食生产潜力为7614 kg/hm²。中国耕地粮食生产潜力空间差异显著, 总体呈现东部生产总潜力高, 西北部生产力较低的趋势, 其中耕地粮食生产潜力高值区主要分布在长江中下游地区和华南区。

(2) 1990-2010年的20年间, 中国耕地粮食生产潜力变化表现出明显的时空差异, 总体呈现南减北增, 总量减少的基本特征。新增耕地粮食生产潜力的重心逐步由东北向西北转移。耕地粮食生产潜力总量净减少297万t, 占全国粮食总产量的0.29%。

(3) 在1990-2000年与2000-2010年两个时期, 耕地变化对耕地粮食生产潜力影响差异明显。前10年, 耕地粮食生产潜力总量净增加1011万t, 主要集中在东北平原区和北方干旱半干旱区; 后10年, 耕地粮食生产潜力总量净减少1308万t, 主要集中在长江中下游地区和黄淮海平原区。从总体看, 1990-2010年耕地粮食生产潜力总量增加主要是由林、草地和未利用土地开垦所导致, 而耕地粮食生产潜力总量减少主要是由于城市扩展占用耕地和退耕还林还草导致部分耕地资源损失。

本文深入分析了耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响, 但由于时间和数据的限制, 本研究仍存在一些不确定性。例如, ① 极端气候条件对粮食生产潜力影响很大, 但这一气候异常因素在本研究中并未考虑; ② 本研究中灌溉条件即假设有充足的水分供给作物生长, 但实际上即使在灌溉条件下, 作物生长仍然受到水分条件的限制; ③ 在获取最大粮食生产潜力选择作物品种和种植制度时, 并没有考虑农民追求最大收益对产量带来的影响。在全球粮食安全危机的背景下, 耕地变化对粮食产量的影响已经引起各国政府和社会各界的广泛关注。自21世纪以来, 中国耕地面积的总体变化趋势表现为总面积持续减少, 耕地不断向非农利用方式的转变, 致使2000年以来中国耕地粮食生产潜力总量出现下滑的趋势^[27]。因此准确核定全国耕地粮食潜力及其区域分异, 正确把握耕地变化对粮食潜力影响的主要方向和区域格局, 对保护耕地红线, 保持耕地总量的占补平衡, 保证国家粮食安全, 合理开展中国土地资源管理具有重要的科学指导意义。当前, 在构建国家生态安全屏障, 建设生态文明, 以及持续城镇化的影响下, 未来中国耕地面积的萎缩可能还会持续。因此, 在准确认识主要耕地流失对粮食产量的影响并合理控制耕地转移的基础上, 不断开发、提高、更新和恢复耕地生产力, 是保障粮食供给、保证国家粮食安全的重要方式^[28]。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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[11]	Liu Jiyuan, Zhang Zengxiang, Zhuang Dafang et al. A study on the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of land -use and driving forces analyses of China in the 1990s. Geographical Research, 2003, 22(1): 1-12. [刘纪远, 张增祥, 庄大方等. 20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析. 地理研究, 2003, 22(1): 1-12. ] [本文引用:1]
[12]	Liu Jiyuan, Buheaosier. Study on spatial-temporal feature or modern land -use change in China: Using remote sensing techniques. Quaternary Sciences, 2000, 20(3): 229-239. [刘纪远, 布和敖斯尔. 中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究: 基于卫星遥感数据. 第四纪研究, 2000, 20(3): 229-239. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 1.911]
[13]	Liu Jiyuan, Zhang Zengxiang, Xu Xinliang et al. Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(4): 483-494. [本文引用:1] [JCR: 0.907] [CJCR: 0.8244]
[14]	Liu Jiyuan, Liu Mingliang, Zhuang Dafang et al. Study on spatial pattern of land -use change in China during 1995-2000. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 2003, 46(4): 373-384. [本文引用:1]
[15]	Liu Jiyuan, Kuang Wenhui, Zhang Zengxiang et al. Spatiaotemporal characteristics, patterns and causes of land -use changes in China since the late 1980s. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2014, 24(2): 195-210. [本文引用:1] [JCR: 0.907] [CJCR: 0.8244]
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[20]	Fischer Gunther, Sun Laixiang. Model based analysis of future land -use development in China. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2001, 85(1-3): 163-176. [本文引用:1]
[21]	Fischer Gunther, Mahendra Shah, Harrij van Velthuizenet al. Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: Methodology and results. 2002: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [本文引用:1]
[22]	Fischer Gunther, Mahendra Shah, Harrij van Velthuizen et al. Agro-ecological Zones Assessments: Land Use and Land Cover. Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO. Oxford, UK: Eolss Publishers, 2006. [本文引用:1]
[23]	Fischer Gunther, Mahendra Shah, Francesco N. Tubiello et al. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: An integrated assessment, 1990-2080. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2005, 360(1463): 2067-2083. [本文引用:1] [JCR: 6.23]
[24]	Chen Yinjun, Yi Xiaoyan, Fang Linna et al. Analysis for arable land resource and its grain production capacity in China. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2012, 33(6): 4-10. [陈印军, 易小燕, 方琳娜等. 中国耕地资源及其粮食生产能力分析. 中国农业资源与区划, 2012, 33(6): 4-10. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 0.9684]
[25]	Yan Huimin, Liu Jiyuan, Cao Mingkui. Remotely sensed multiple cropping index variations in China during 1981-2000. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(4): 559-566. [闫慧敏, 刘纪远, 曹明奎. 近20年中国耕地复种指数的时空变化. 地理学报, 2005, 60(4): 559-566. ] [本文引用:1] [CJCR: 2.937]
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2009

0.5

0.7263

Song

, Chen B

, Chen X

Evaluation for use efficiency of agricultural resources in grain production: A case study of Changshu, Taihe and Ansai in China.

Chinese Geographical Science, 2009, 19(1): 46-54.

This paper aims to establish an index system for evaluation of agricultural resources use efficiency(ARUE) in grain production and discuss the causes of low efficiency and high consumption of agricultural resources in Changshu of Jiangsu Province,Taihe of Jiangxi Province and Ansai of Shaanxi Province in China by analyzing the data about meteorology,soil,water consumption and grain production. Agro-ecological Zone(AEZ) method was adopted to calculate the potential productivity,and synthetically multivariate equation was used to evaluate the ARUE of study areas. This paper can be concluded as:1) the agricultural resources in grain production can be classified into five categories,i.e.,climatic resources,water resources,land resources,biological resources and assistant resources,and 15 indexes were selected to evaluate their use efficiency in grain production;2) the values of ARUE in grain production are 0.5868,0.6368 and 0.5390 respectively in Changshu,Taihe and Ansai;and 3) Changshu ranks the highest among the three study areas in terms of the use efficiency of climatic resources and biological resources(evaluation values are 0.0277 and 0.1530),but Taihe tops the three in terms of the use efficiency of water resources,land resources and assistant resources(evaluation values are 0.0502,0.2945 and 0.1379 respectively). However,the ARUE remains always low in Ansai for all the resources. The inefficiencies are caused by poor grain revenue in Changshu,deficient agriculture investments in Taihe and unfavorable natural conditions in Ansai.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Gradate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

... 影响粮食生产的因素很多,如制度与政策的创新、科技进步、物质和劳动的投入、耕地和气候资源变化等因素^[1,2,3] ...

2006

0.0

0.681

... 影响粮食生产的因素很多,如制度与政策的创新、科技进步、物质和劳动的投入、耕地和气候资源变化等因素^[1,2,3] ...

... 过去20年,由于开垦耕地、城市化侵占耕地以及退耕还林还草等的影响,中国的耕地资源在面积、空间分布和质量上都发生了巨大变化^[2,3,4,5] ...

2002

0.0

2.407

Liu

Yansui

, Wu

Chuanjun.

Situation of land -water resources and analysis of sustainable food security in China.

Journal of Natural Resources, 2002, 17(3): 270-275.

[刘彦随, 吴传钩. 中国水土资源态势与可持续食物安全. 自然资源学报, 2002, 17(3): 270-275. ]

The early stage of the21st century will be the important time that China will witness rapid promotion of industrialization and urbanization and move towards higher degree.It is also a crucial period that China integrates into the world economy and enters the steady and continuous stage of social and economic development.However,such factors as trending towards constant growth of population,the speeding process of industrialization and urbanization,the formation of integration pattern of global trade,the transition of civil system and institution will make human-land conflict more intense,market competition unprecedented severe in China,which,undoubt-edly,have tremendous effect on the resource base of China's agricultural production and the sup-ply-demand balance of agricultural products,so,China's food security will be faced with chal-lenge.Based on the situation analysis of the water-land resources and its influence on food secu-rity in China,this paper puts forward that the shortage of water-land quantity and deficient matching between their distribution will affect directly on Chinese food security,and the quantity of food shortage will reach760×10 8 kg.However,the realization of the objectives of Chinese food security must rest on sustainable development of China's agriculture and rural economy in the21st century,so the primary strategy ensuring China's sustainable food security is to select the developing orientation and model with industrialization,ecologicalization,internationalization and localization as character in order to establish a domestic sustainable agriculture and rural eco-nomic system,and lay stress on optimizing the institutional environment,consummating the guar-anteeing system and breaking through the structural constraints to further reform and innovation.

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing100101,China

21世纪前期是中国工业化、城市化迅速推进的重要时期,也是中国走向国际贸易一体化和进入社会经济持续发展的关键时期。未来人口持续增长与消费水平的提高、工业化与城市化进程的加快、全球贸易一体化格局的形成、国内体制和制度的转型,使中国人地矛盾更趋尖锐、市场竞争空前激烈,这无疑对中国农业生产的资源基础和农产品的供需平衡产生巨大影响,进而影响到中国食物安全。论文重点分析了我国水土资源态势及其对可持续食物安全的影响,指出水土资源总量短缺及其空间上的不匹配状况将直接影响着中国可持续食物安全,到2030年中国粮食缺口可能在760×108kg左右;实现中国可持续食物安全应立足21世纪中国农业与农村经济的可持续发展,重点选择产业化、生态化、国际化和地区专业化的发展方向与模式,并须在优化制度环境、完善保障体系和突破结构制约等几个方面进行深化改革与创新。

... 影响粮食生产的因素很多,如制度与政策的创新、科技进步、物质和劳动的投入、耕地和气候资源变化等因素^[1,2,3] ...

... 过去20年,由于开垦耕地、城市化侵占耕地以及退耕还林还草等的影响,中国的耕地资源在面积、空间分布和质量上都发生了巨大变化^[2,3,4,5] ...

2001

0.0

2.407

Zeqiang

, Cai

Yunlong

, Yang

Youxiao

et al. Research on the relationship of cultivated land change and food security in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(4): 313-319.

[傅绎强, 蔡运龙, 杨友孝等. 中国粮食安全与耕地资源变化的相关分析. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(4): 313-319. ]

National food security is based upon grain self sufficiency in general.Cultivated land resource is an important base influencing the available grain self sufficient capability.In China,the pressure of grain demand becomes greater and greater in the 21st century owing to the continuous population growth and income increase.Conflict between population and land will become more acute because scarce cultivated land will be partly transformed irreversibly into non agricultural uses in the process of the speedy industrialization and urbanization and economic development.Through analyzing the impacts of quantity change and quality status of cultivated land on grain production,the authors identify the relationship between cultivated land change and food security in China.This research tends to offer a basis for China to set down food security strategy in the 21st century.

Department of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

实现国家粮食安全的最基本条件是保证粮食基本自给,而耕地资源是粮食自给能力的基础。21世纪中国人口将继续增长,人均粮食消费水平将有所提高,粮食需求压力日益增大;工业化、城市化进程加快和经济高速发展将使原本稀缺的耕地资源不可逆转地部分流向非农化利用,人地矛盾将更趋尖锐。论文分析了耕地数量变化及质量状况与粮食生产的相关关系,结论表明,中国21世纪粮食安全战略中必须高度重视耕地的数量保持和质量改善。

... 耕地资源是农业生产最基本的物质条件,耕地数量和质量的变化直接影响粮食产量,从而影响到粮食有效供给^[4] ...

... 中国目前正处在工业化、城市化进程加快和生态文明建设的重要时期,耕地资源日益受到工业和城市土地利用的竞争,部分耕地非农化的趋势不可逆转,这已严重地影响到国家的粮食安全,并引起了国内外的广泛关注^[4] ...

... 过去20年,由于开垦耕地、城市化侵占耕地以及退耕还林还草等的影响,中国的耕地资源在面积、空间分布和质量上都发生了巨大变化^[2,3,4,5] ...

2005

0.0

... 过去20年,由于开垦耕地、城市化侵占耕地以及退耕还林还草等的影响,中国的耕地资源在面积、空间分布和质量上都发生了巨大变化^[2,3,4,5] ...

... 例如,刘纪远等分析了20世纪90年代中国LUCC过程对农田光温生产潜力总量和区域分异的影响^[5] ...

2013

0.907

0.8244

Qin

Yuanwei

, Yan

Huiming

, Liu

Jiyuan

et al. Impacts of ecological restoration projects on agricultural productivity in China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2013, 23(3): 404-416.

The changes in cropland quantity and quality due to land use are critical concerns to national food security, particularly for China. Despite the significant ecological effects, the ecological restoration program (ERP), started from 1999, has evidently altered the spatial patterns of China’s cropland and agricultural productivity. Based on cropland dynamic data from 2000 to 2008 primarily derived from satellite images with a 30-m resolution and satellite-based net primary productivity models, we identified the impacts on agricultural productivity caused by ERP, including “Grain for Green” Program (GFGP) and “Reclaimed Cropland to Lake” (RCTL) Program. Our results indicated that the agricultural productivity lost with a rate of 132.67×10 4 t/a due to ERP, which accounted for 44.01% of the total loss rate caused by land use changes during 2000-2005. During 2005-2008, the loss rate due to ERP decreased to 77.18×10 4 t/a, which was equivalent to 58.17% of that in the first five years and 30.22% of the total loss rate caused by land use changes. The agricultural productivity loss from 2000-2008 caused by ERP was more attributed to GFGP (about 70%) than RCTL. Although ERP had a certain influence on cropland productivity during 2000-2008, its effect was still much less than that of urbanization; moreover, ERP was already converted from the project implementation phase to the consolidation phase.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Departments of Microbiology and Plant Botany, Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019-5300, USA

... 闫慧敏等分析了中国城市化进程和退耕还林草生态工程对耕地的分布与生产力的影响^[6] ...

2008

0.0

2.937

Shi

Shuqin

, Chen

Youqi

, Yao

Yanmin

et al. Impact assessment of cultivated land change upon grain productive capacity in Northeast China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(6): 574-586.

[石淑芹, 陈佑启, 姚艳敏等. 东北地区耕地变化对粮食生产能力的影响评价. 地理学报, 2008, 63(6): 574-586. ]

It is of great significance to research the changing patterns of current regional cultivated land and explore its impact on grain productivity. "3S" technology can not only improve precision, speed and efficiency of data collection, but also obtain and manage various kinds of agricultural resource information with spatial attributes effectively, and monitor and assess the cultivated land dynamic change. This research is innovative in such aspects as research content, method and so on. Firstly, taking Northeast China as a study area, with the help of "3S" technology and on the basis of spatial and temporal land resource data, agricultural statistics data and considering the natural and socio-economic factors, this paper analyzed the impact of cultivated land change on the grain production capacity within this region in terms of cultivated land quantity, cultivated land quality, crop structure etc. Secondly, since the soil nutrient data obtained from field survey in 2005 differ greatly from the data obtained at the time of the second soil survey in the 1980s on the aspect of sample position, quantity, time and soil analytical method, this paper did not carry out comparative research with the cultivated land quality of the period of the second soil survey, but analyzed the spatial distribution of the change of the cultivated land quality caused by the change of cultivated land quantity. Thirdly, considering cultivated land quality is the comprehensive reflection of different properties of cultivated land, the elements of cultivated land quality include the natural factors and social-economic factors mainly. And the natural resources, cultural structure and social-economic conditions among different regions may vary greatly, thus the natural and social-economic factors will exert different effects on grain production in different regions, and this proves that it is important to manage cultivated land resources based on regionalization. In recent years, the peasants have increased the input amount on the cultivated land, such as fertilizer and mulch film, which resulted in different effects on cultivated land quality in Northeast China. Under the above-mentioned background, this paper analyzed cultivated land quality information in the concerned region. The method was to explore natural quality grading and utilizing quality grading on cultivated land respectively through natural quality grading and utilizing quality grading indicator systems. And then we divided the whole region into high-yield cultivated land, medium-yield cultivated land and low-yield cultivated land based on per unit area grain yield, and the correlation was analyzed between natural quality grading of land and per unit area grain yield as well as between utilizing quality grading of land and grain yield per unit area through GIS method. In a word, this paper can provide some help to sustainable utilization and management of cultivated land resource in the study and offer useful reference for the similar research in other regions.

Key Laboratory of Resources Remote-Sensing & Digital Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Resources & Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

分析研究当前区域性耕地资源数量与质量的变化格局和态势, 研究其耕地资源变化对粮食生产能力的影响, 具有重要的理论和现实意义。以东北地区为例, 利用“3S”技术, 着重应用GIS 空间分析优势, 首先分层次开展耕地自然质量评价、耕地利用质量评价与耕地综合质量评价, 分析耕地自然质量、耕地利用质量与粮食单产的关系, 研究区域耕地数量变化引起的耕地综合质量空间分布变化; 然后从耕地数量、耕地质量、作物种植制度等方面, 探讨东北地区耕地变化对粮食生产能力的影响。为本地区耕地资源可持续利用与管理, 制定科学合理的粮食生产发展规划提供借鉴, 为其他地区开展类似研究提供参考。

... 作为人口众多的发展中国家,中国的粮食安全问题对世界粮食安全具有重要影响,始终受到国内外学者的广泛关注^[7] ...

... 石淑芹等分析了东北地区耕地数量、质量和作物种植制度等对粮食生产能力的影响^[7] ...

2007

0.0

2.779

Xinliang

, Liu

Jiyuan

, Cao

Mingkui

et al. Impact of recent climate fluctuation and LUCC process on potential productivity for crops in Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2007, 27(3): 318-324.

[徐新良, 刘纪远, 曹明奎等. 近期气候波动与LUCC过对东北农田生产潜力的影响. 地理科学, 2007, 27(3): 318-324. ]

This paper estimated the impact of recent climate fluctuation and LUCC process on potential productivity in Northeast China.The results show that from 1991 to 2000 the potential productivity generally decreased 6.45% because of climate warming and precipitation decreasing.The land-use change made potential productivity take great changes in the region that land-use change took place.The changes were mostly driven by LUCC conversion process,in the 1990s the total potential productivity increased 24.03?10 6 t.Comparing the influence of climate fluctuation and LUCC process,the impact of climate fluctuation was less than that of LUCC process,the increased trend of potential productivity that leaded by LUCC process counteracted the decreased trend leaded by climate fluctuation.Under the integrated influence of climate fluctuation and LUCC process,total potential productivity increased by 9.92?10 6 t in the 1990s.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101; 2. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130012

利用1991~2000年逐日气象资料以及20世纪80年代末和90年代末土地利用数据,估算了东北地区气候波动和LUCC过程对农田生产潜力的影响。结果显示:90年代东北地区由于作物生长季内气候变暖和降水减少,生产潜力普遍降低6.45%,其中降水量变化的区域差异是导致生产潜力变化区域分异的主要原因。在LUCC过程的影响下,东北地区生产潜力总量净增加2 402.79×10 4 t。从气候波动和LUCC过程对生产潜力的影响程度看,气候波动要低于LUCC过程的作用,LUCC过程所导致的生产潜力的增长趋势抵消了气候波动所带来的降低趋势,10年间东北地区农田生产潜力总量净增加992.23×10 4 t。

... 徐新良等则揭示了气候波动与LUCC过程对东北农田生产潜力的影响^[8] ...

2003

0.0

Xiaoli

, Shi

Peijun

, Yang

Mingchuan

et al. The impact of the national land policy on the sustainable arable land use in China since1949. Journal of Beijing Normal University: Social Science Edition, 2003, (2): 115-123.

[徐小黎, 史培军, 杨明川等. 我国土地政策对耕地可持续利用的影响. 北京师范大学学报: 社会科学版, 2003, (2): 115-123. ]

耕地变化受到诸如经济、人口、政策等因素的影响,但在中国,政策影响的痕迹更为明显.在高度集中的计划经济体制下,耕地的变化完全取决于中央计划的制定和实施情况,同时,领导决策、个人意志以及特殊政治事件等对耕地变化也有非常明显的改变作用.改革开放以后,我国逐步走入市场经济时代,耕地表象上是受经济利益驱动向收益高的土地利用类型转换,事实上,是国家制定的区域发展政策、产业发展政策和城市发展政策,决定了经济发展的方向和速度,进而决定和推动着耕地改变的方向及速度.同时,在"社会可持续发展"的指导思想下,国家通过一些保护性的法律或法规维持耕地不被过度改变.

... 为提高中国粮食产量,增强农业生产抵御风险的综合能力,2009年中国政府开始核定全国耕地增产潜力及其区域分布,并对过去土地生产力的变化进行了科学的分析与评估^[9] ...

2005

5.103

0.0

Liu

Jiyuan

, Liu

Mingliang

, Tian

Hanqin

et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of China's cropland during 1990-2000: An analysis based on Land sat TM data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2005, 98(4): 442-456.

... 该数据库是在国家科技支撑计划、中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目等多项重大科技项目的支持下经过多年的积累而建立的覆盖全国陆地区域的多时相1:10万比例尺土地利用现状数据集^{[10,11,12,13]} ...

2003

0.0

2000

0.0

1.911

Liu

Jiyuan

, Buheaosier. Study on spatial-temporal feature or modern land -use change in China: Using remote sensing techniques. Quaternary Sciences, 2000, 20(3): 229-239.

[刘纪远, 布和敖斯尔. 中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究: 基于卫星遥感数据. 第四纪研究, 2000, 20(3): 229-239. ]

In China, a country with great discrepancy between dense population, rapideconomic increase and the fragile environmenL the study on the modem process ofland-use change is significantly important for better understanding land-use changeand environmental management for sustainable development. Since the 1960' s, thedevelopment of remote sensing has put researches about our planet into a brand-newstage. With the support of remote sensing techniques, which make possible the dataacqtusihon at completed spahal and temporal series, the spahal feature of the Earth'ssurface and its evolvement modern process can be analyzed in quanhtahve andpararneterized methods. And it enables the study on historical construchon of landuse /cover change over temporal scales. Understanding the mechanisms which operated in the past to determine the main land-use/cover change is a crucial input to analyzing the current changes and predichng future ones. From this point, acompleted hme series spahal data platform derived from remotely sensed data isindispensable because on the basis of thes platform. Then effective studies on themodern process of land-use change, including the temporal feature and spahal featureof this process, can be approached by means of process analysis and quantitativemodeling.

1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100101; 2. Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101

为实现土地利用变化现代过程的卫星遥感研究，须建立时间序列完整的空间型遥感数据平台。在此基础上，通过建模分析，可以有效地研究土地利用变化的现代过程，其中包括土地利用变化的时间动态特征和空间动态特征。为探讨基于卫星遥感数据的中国土地利用变化现代过程研究的方法论，采用陆地卫星TM分层抽样方法，对全国土地利用类型区域组合、土地利用程度变化和土地利用动态度进行了分析。

2010

0.907

0.8244

Liu

Jiyuan

, Zhang

Zengxiang

, Xu

Xinliang

et al. Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(4): 483-494.

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the “Grain for Green” policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of “Western Development”, “Revitalization of Northeast”, coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 3. Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS, Chengdu 610041, China; 4. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China; 5. Wuhan Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, CAS, Wuhan 430077, China; 6. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China; 7. Nanjing Institute of Soil Science, CAS, Nanjing 21000; 8. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China; 9. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China

2003

0.0

Liu

Jiyuan

, Liu

Mingliang

, Zhuang

Dafang

et al. Study on spatial pattern of land -use change in China during 1995-2000. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 2003, 46(4): 373-384.

It is more and more acknowledged that land-use/cover dynamic change has become a key subject urgently to be dealt with in the study of global environmental change. Supported by the Landsat TM digital images, spatial patterns and temporal variation of land-use change during 1995—2000 are studied in the paper. According to the land-use dynamic degree model, supported by the 1km GRID data of land-use change and the comprehensive characters of physical, economic and social features, a dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed to disclose the spa-tial pattern of land-use change processes. Generally speaking, in the traditional agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plains, Yangtze River Delta and Sichuan Basin, the built-up and residential areas occupy a great proportion of arable land, and in the interlock area of farming and pasturing of northern China and the oases agricultural zones, the reclamation of arable land is conspicuously driven by changes of production conditions, economic benefits and climatic conditions. The im-plementation of returning arable land into woodland or grassland policies has won initial success in some areas, but it is too early to say that the trend of deforestation has been effectively reversed across China. In this paper, the division of dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed, for the sake of revealing the temporal and spatial features of land-use change and laying the foundation for the study of regional scale land-use changes. Moreover, an integrated study, in-cluding studies of spatial pattern and temporal process of land-use change, is carried out in this paper, which is an interesting try on the comparative studies of spatial pattern on change process and the change process of spatial pattern of land-use change.

LIU Jiyuan (1, LIU Mingliang )1, ZHUANG Dafang 1, ZHANG Zengxiang )2 & DENG Xiangzheng (1 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences of Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

It is more and more acknowledged that land-use/cover dynamic change has become a key subject urgently to be dealt with in the study of global environmental change. Supported by the Landsat TM digital images, spatial patterns and temporal variation of land-use change during 1995—2000 are studied in the paper. According to the land-use dynamic degree model, supported by the 1km GRID data of land-use change and the comprehensive characters of physical, economic and social features, a dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed to disclose the spatial pattern of land-use change processes. Generally speaking, in the traditional agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plains, Yangtze River Delta and Sichuan Basin, the built-up and residential areas occupy a great proportion of arable land, and in the interlock area of farming and pasturing of northern China and the oases agricultural zones, the reclamation of arable land is conspicuously driven by changes of production conditions, economic benefits and climatic conditions. The implementation of “returning arable land into woodland or grassland” policies has won initial success in some areas, but it is too early to say that the trend of deforestation has been effectively reversed across China. In this paper, the division of dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed, for the sake of revealing the temporal and spatial features of land-use change and laying the foundation for the study of regional scale land-use changes. Moreover, an integrated study, including studies of spatial pattern and temporal process of land-use change, is carried out in this paper, which is an interesting try on the comparative studies of spatial pattern on change process and the change process of spatial pattern of land-use change.

... 3%以上,满足1:10万比例尺用户制图精度^[14,15] ...

2014

0.907

0.8244

Liu

Jiyuan

, Kuang

Wenhui

, Zhang

Zengxiang

et al. Spatiaotemporal characteristics, patterns and causes of land -use changes in China since the late 1980s. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2014, 24(2): 195-210.

Land-use/land-cover changes (LUCCs) have links to both human and nature interactions. China's Land-Use/cover Datasets (CLUDs) were updated regularly at 5-year intervals from the late 1980s to 2010,with standard procedures based on Landsat TM\ETM+ images. A land-use dynamic regionalization method was proposed to analyze major land-use conversions. The spatiotemporal characteristics,differences,and causes of land-use changes at a national scale were then examined. The main findings are summarized as follows. Land-use changes (LUCs) across China indicated a significant variation in spatial and temporal characteristics in the last 20 years (1990-2010). The area of cropland change decreased in the south and increased in the north,but the total area remained almost unchanged. The reclaimed cropland was shifted from the northeast to the northwest. The built-up lands expanded rapidly,were mainly distributed in the east,and gradually spread out to central and western China. Woodland decreased first,and then increased,but desert area was the opposite. Grassland continued decreasing. Different spatial patterns of LUC in China were found between the late 20th century and the early 21st century. The original 13 LUC zones were replaced by 15 units with changes of boundaries in some zones. The main spatial characteristics of these changes included (1) an accelerated expansion of built-up land in the Huang-Huai-Hai region,the southeastern coastal areas,the midstream area of the Yangtze River,and the Sichuan Basin;(2) shifted land reclamation in the north from northeast China and eastern Inner Mongolia to the oasis agricultural areas in northwest China;(3) continuous transformation from rain-fed farmlands in northeast China to paddy fields;and (4) effectiveness of the "Grain for Green" project in the southern agricultural-pastoral ecotones of Inner Mongolia,the Loess Plateau,and southwestern mountainous areas. In the last two decades,although climate change in the north affected the change in cropland,policy regulation and economic driving forces were still the primary causes of LUC across China. During the first decade of the 21st century,the anthropogenic factors that drove variations in land-use patterns have shifted the emphasis from one-way land development to both development and conservation.The "dynamic regionalization method" was used to analyze changes in the spatial patterns of zoning boundaries,the internal characteristics of zones,and the growth and decrease of units. The results revealed "the pattern of the change process," namely the process of LUC and regional differences in characteristics at different stages. The growth and decrease of zones during this dynamic LUC zoning,variations in unit boundaries,and the characteristics of change intensities between the former and latter decades were examined. The patterns of alternative transformation between the "pattern" and "process" of land use and the causes for changes in different types and different regions of land use were explored.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 4. Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS, Chengdu 610041, China; 5. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China; 6. Wuhan Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, CAS, Wuhan 430077, China; 7. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China; 8. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China; 9. Institute of Soil Science, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China; 10. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China

... 3%以上,满足1:10万比例尺用户制图精度^[14,15] ...

2011

5.103

0.0

Shortridge

Ashton

, Messina

Joseph.

Spatial structure and land scape associations of SRTM error.

Remote Sensing of Environment, 2011. 115(6): 1576-1587.

... SRTM数据有现实性强、免费获取等优点,全球许多应用研究都采用SRTM数据开展环境分析^[16] ...

1998

0.0

... 1 km的月气象要素空间格网数据^[17,18,19],以此作为粮食生产潜力计算的气候条件基础 ...

1998

0.0

... 1 km的月气象要素空间格网数据^[17,18,19],以此作为粮食生产潜力计算的气候条件基础 ...

1995

0.0

... 1 km的月气象要素空间格网数据^[17,18,19],以此作为粮食生产潜力计算的气候条件基础 ...

2001

0.0

... 农业生产潜力 (农业投入水平、经营管理方法等限制)^{[20,21,22,23]} (图1) ...

2002

0.0

et al. Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: Methodology and results. 2002: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

... 农业生产潜力 (农业投入水平、经营管理方法等限制)^{[20,21,22,23]} (图1) ...

2006

0.0

... 农业生产潜力 (农业投入水平、经营管理方法等限制)^{[20,21,22,23]} (图1) ...

2005

6.23

0.0

... 农业生产潜力 (农业投入水平、经营管理方法等限制)^{[20,21,22,23]} (图1) ...

2012

0.0

0.9684

... 7%^[24] ...

2005

0.0

2.937

Yan

Huimin

, Liu

Jiyuan

, Cao

Mingkui.

Remotely sensed multiple cropping index variations in China during 1981-2000.

Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(4): 559-566.

[闫慧敏, 刘纪远, 曹明奎. 近20年中国耕地复种指数的时空变化. 地理学报, 2005, 60(4): 559-566. ]

Multiple cropping system is essential to Chinese agriculture, which can significantly increase grain yield and promote agricultural economic development. Multiple Cropping Index is fluctuating year by year due to the changing natural conditions and rural social status, so, it is very important to get the change information in time for food security assessment and scientific decision on agricultural development and planning. The discussions about food security in recent years mostly focused on the peril caused by decreased cropland area, whereas neglected the loss of actual sown area due to Multiple Cropping Index decrease. As the only data source for sown area or MCI change assessment on national scale, statistical data not only is time-lagged and poor in creditability but also lack spatially explicit description. In this study, we extract multiple cropping information from 8 km 10-day composite AVHRR/NDVI time series images according to the phenological metrics and farmland practice temporal features, and then analyze MCI changes from the 1980s to the 1990s. This study shows that China's MCI increase as a whole, but 15% of cropland area has suffered MCI decrease that is mainly distributed in the Zhujiang River Delta in South China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, hilly area of Sichuan Basin and Shandong hilly area of Huang-Huai-Hai region. In the Sichuan Basin and the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the MCI decreased croplands are mostly distributed in hilly area, while MCI of cropland in plain area increase or keep stable.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China

多熟种植是中国重要的种植制度,对保障国家食物安全和促进农村经济发展有十分重要的意义。复种指数受自然条件和农村社会状况的影响处于不断变化之中,及时获取其变化信息是国家食物安全评估和农业发展科学决策的基础。近年来对食物安全的研究集中于耕地面积变化的影响,对复种指数变化及其影响的研究较少。作物种植面积和复种指数变化的估计一直以行政区划为单元的统计数据为基础,但获得这些数据费时费力,时效性和可靠性都比较差,更缺乏准确的空间和时间变化信息。卫星遥感是探测大尺度土地覆被格局实时变化的最有效手段,因此可以作为获取全国和区域尺度作物复种指数变化信息的重要途径。作者应用多时相NOAA/AVHRR遥感观测数据和峰值特征点检测法提取全国尺度的复种指数,并分析其从20世纪80年代初到90年代末的变化。结果表明全国复种指数整体增加,但在珠江三角洲、长江中下游、四川盆地丘陵山地以及山东丘陵等地区有所降低。复种指数下降的耕地占全国总面积15%左右。在四川盆地和黄淮海区,复种指数在平原地区有所增加或保持稳定,下降多发生在丘陵山地,但在长江中下游和华南精耕细作地区出现复种指数降低的趋势。

... 中国大部分地区都采用多熟制耕作制度,故在估算总粮食生产潜力时需要考虑作物的多熟制^[25] ...

2011

0.0

Tatsumi

Kenichi

, Yosuke

Yamashiki

, Roberto Valmir da Silva et al. Estimation of potential changes in cereals production under climate change scenarios. Hydrological Processes, 2011, 25(17): 2715-2725.

1 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan 2 Department of Urban and Environment Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan 3 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan 4 Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo, Japan * Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, 611-0011, Kyoto, Japan.

> This survey proposed a new methodology - iGAEZ (improved GAEZ), developed based on the GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model, capable of simulating crop yields on a global scale for wheat, potato, cassava, soybean, rice, sweet potato, maize, green beans. iGAEZ determines the optimum criteria of crop parameter of growth cycles to ensure best realistic crop yield combinations under comprehensive consideration of climate and crop condition. Global-scale crop yields were calculated using iGAEZ model for the period of 1990-1999. Through comparing simulated yields and FAO statistics, iGAEZ has demonstrated a very good ability to reproduce realistic crop yields on a global scale. We also predicted the impact of global warming on crop yields from the 1990s to 2090s by projecting five GCM outputs for AR4 under SRES A1B scenarios. According to the result, temperature rise will make many cultivated areas (eastern part of USA, India, eastern China, Africa) less productive. On the other hand, the regions with cold weather under current climate condition (Canada, northern Europe, northeastern China) become suitable for crop productivity under future climate scenario. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

... 灌溉和雨养情景下的生产潜力利用灌溉比例数据获得最终粮食生产潜力^[26],具体方法如下： ...

2010

0.0

1.742

Jiang

Qunou

, Deng

Xiangzheng

, Lin

Zhiying

et al. Impacts of cultivated land conversion on cultivated land productivity in China: Prediction and analysis. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2010, 21(12): 3113-3119.

[姜群鸥, 邓祥征, 林英志等. 中国耕地用途转移对耕地生产力影响的预测与分析. 应用生态学报, 2010, 21(12): 3113-3119. ]

This paper simulated the spatial patterns of cultivated land in China under the future scenario by using the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model, and then estimated the cultivated land productivity at the grid pixel dimensions based on the Estimation System of Land Production (ESLP). In addition, the spatial patterns of cultivated land productivity in each of China agro-ecological zones were analyzed. On this basis, this paper predicted the impacts of cultivated land conversion on the cultivated land production in China in 2000-2020, and identified the major affecting factors on the cultivated land production. The research results indicated that the impact of improving the cultivated land productivity on the cultivated land production would be wunch more remarkable than that from the magnitude of cultivated land conversion in regions where there were high potential to imrprove the cultivated land productivity. However, in the regions with nearly no room to improve the productivity, cultivated land conversion would produce more apparent impacts on the total cultivated land production. In this sense, it was of significance for the national food security in China to adjust the cultivated land conversion to ensure the 0.12 billion hm 2 of cultivated land, and to increase investment and improve management level to increase per unit grain yield.

1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China| 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China| 3 Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 4 Institute of Agricultural Development and Investment, Chinese Academy ofAgricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China

依据DLS模型模拟了未来情景下中国耕地面积及其空间分布特征，在此基础上，应用ESLP估算了栅格尺度上的耕地生产力水平，分析了不同农业生态区耕地生产力的空间分异特征.基于以上两个模型的估算结果，分析了2000—2020中国耕地用途转移对耕地生产力的影响，提炼了影响耕地生产力变化的主要因素.结果表明：在耕地生产力有较大增长空间的地域，提高单位面积耕地生产力比耕地用途转移对耕地生产力总量的影响显著；但对于耕地生产力增长空间较小的地域，耕地用途转移对耕地生产力总量的影响显著.要保障国家粮食安全，既要合理控制耕地转移，保证中国1.2×10 8 hm 2 耕地红线，又要增加投入、提高管理水平，增加单位面积的粮食产量.

... 自21世纪以来,中国耕地面积的总体变化趋势表现为总面积持续减少,耕地不断向非农利用方式的转变,致使2000年以来中国耕地粮食生产潜力总量出现下滑的趋势^[27] ...

2005

0.0

Gao

Zhiqiang

, Liu

Jiyuan

, Cao

Mingkui

et al. Impacts of land use and climate changes on ecosystem productivity and carbon cycle in the cropping grazing transitional zone in China. Science in China Series D, 2005, 48: 1479-1491.

The impact of land-use/land-cover and climate changes on ecosystem productivity and carbon cycle is one of the most important issues in global change studies. In the past 20 years, the climate and land-use in China have changed significantly and have had important ecological consequences, especially in ecologically sensitive regions, e.g. the cropping-grazing transition zone (CGTZ). Here we present a study that used a process-based ecosystem model and data of land-use changes based on remote sensing and of climate change at high spatial and temporal resolution to estimate the impacts of land-use and climate changes on net primary productivity (NPP), vegetation carbon storage, soil heterotrophic respiration (HR), carbon storage and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in the CGTZ of China. The results show that the warming and decreases in precipitation in CGTZ reduced NPP by 3.4%, increased HR by 4.3%, and re- duced annual mean total NEP by 33.7Tg from the 1980s to the 1990s. Although carbon storage in vegetation and soil was increasing because the mean NPP for the period was higher than HR, the decreasing NEP indicate that climate change reduced the carbon uptake rate. However, land-use changes in this zone caused increases in NPP by 3.8%, vegetation carbon storage by 2.4%, and annual total NEP by 0.59Tg. The land-use changes enhanced ecosystem carbon up- take, but not enough to offset the negative effect of the climate change. The climate change had greater impacts than the land-use change for the whole CGTZ zone, but had smaller impacts than the land-use change in the regions where it occurred.

GAO Zhiqiang, LIU Jiyuan, CAO Mingkui, LI Kerang & TAO Bo Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 , China

The impact of land-use/land-cover and climate changes on ecosystem productivity and carbon cycle is one of the most important issues in global change studies. In the past 20 years, the climate and land-use in China have changed significantly and have had important ecological consequences, especially in ecologically sensitive regions, e.g. the cropping-grazing transition zone (CGTZ). Here we present a study that used a process-based ecosystem model and data of land-use changes based on remote sensing and of climate change at high spatial and temporal resolution to estimate the impacts of land-use and climate changes on net primary productivity (NPP), vegetation carbon storage, soil heterotrophic respiration (HR), carbon storage and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in the CGTZ of China. The results show that the warming and decreases in precipitation in CGTZ reduced NPP by 3.4%, increased HR by 4.3%, and reduced annual mean total NEP by 33.7Tg from the 1980s to the 1990s. Although carbon storage in vegetation and soil was increasing because the mean NPP for the period was higher than HR, the decreasing NEP indicate that climate change reduced the carbon uptake rate. However, land-use changes in this zone caused increases in NPP by 3.8%, vegetation carbon storage by 2.4%, and annual total NEP by 0.59Tg. The land-use changes enhanced ecosystem carbon up-take, but not enough to offset the negative effect of the climate change. The climate change had greater impacts than the land-use change for the whole CGTZ zone, but had smaller impacts than the land-use change in the regions where it occurred.

... 因此,在准确认识主要耕地流失对粮食产量的影响并合理控制耕地转移的基础上,不断开发、提高、更新和恢复耕地生产力,是保障粮食供给、保证国家粮食安全的重要方式^[28] ...