中国连片特困地区非农就业增长的时空特征与驱动因素
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殷江滨, 李尚谦, 姜磊, 程哲, 黄晓燕, 路改改
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The spatio-temporal variations and driving factors of non-farm employment growth in contiguous destitute areas of China
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YIN Jiangbin, LI Shangqian, JIANG Lei, CHENG Zhe, HUANG Xiaoyan, LU Gaigai
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表5 不同规模县域模型估计结果
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Tab. 5 Spatial econometric results by county size
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| < 20万人 | 20~50万人 | ≥ 50万人 | | OLS | SLM | SLM | | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | | ρ | | | 0.714***
(0.23) | 0.693***
(0.24) | 0.313***
(0.45) | 0.293***
(0.46) | | 常数项 | 2.173
(1.81) | 1.840**
(1.91) | -0.346
(1.59) | -0.445
(1.58) | -7.349***
(1.77) | -6.911***
(1.77) | | 初始就业规模 | -0.347***
(0.06) | -0.340***
(0.06) | -0.590***
(0.04) | -0.605***
(0.04) | -0.689***
(0.04) | -0.681***
(0.04) | | 地区生产总值 | 0.134***
(0.08) | 0.109**
(0.08) | 0.411***
(0.09) | 0.417***
(0.09) | 0.811***
(0.13) | 0.759***
(0.12) | | 固定资产投资占GDP比重 | 0.035
(0.04) | 0.022
(0.04) | 0.058
(0.06) | 0.049
(0.06) | 0.044
(0.08) | 0.030
(0.08) | | 金融机构贷款余额占GDP比重 | 0.129*
(0.09) | 0.129*
(0.09) | -0.021
(0.09) | -0.032
(0.09) | 0.063*
(0.05) | 0.063*
(0.05) | | 第二产业增加值占GDP比重 | -0.487**
(0.28) | | -0.358*
(0.24) | | -0.422
(0.32) | | | 第三产业增加值占GDP比重 | | 0.337
(0.31) | | 0.666***
(0.28) | | 0.099
(0.40) | | 公共财政支出占GDP比重 | -0.134
(0.11) | -0.094
(0.11) | 0.377*
(0.22) | 0.363*
(0.21) | 1.699***
(0.35) | 1.729***
(0.36) | | 每万人中小学生数 | 0.176
(0.15) | 0.231
(0.15) | 0.180*
(0.11) | 0.141
(0.11) | 0.389***
(0.14) | 0.391***
(0.14) | | 每万人医疗机构床位数 | 0.077
(0.08) | 0.059
(0.08) | -0.006
(0.05) | -0.017
(0.06) | 0.079
(0.07) | 0.076
(0.07) | | 地形起伏度 | -0.009
(0.03) | -0.020
(0.03) | -0.095***
(0.03) | -0.095***
(0.02) | -0.188***
(0.04) | -0.197***
(0.04) | | 年均降水量 | 0.039
(0.07) | 0.040
(0.07) | 0.122***
(0.04) | 0.124***
(0.04) | 0.146**
(0.06) | 0.131**
(0.06) | | 到最近海岸线距离 | -0.129
(0.14) | -0.149
(0.15) | 0.051
(0.06) | 0.058
(0.06) | 0.055
(0.09) | 0.064
(0.09) | | 到最近地级城市可达时间 | -0.017
(0.04) | -0.020
(0.04) | -0.048
(0.04) | -0.034
(0.04) | -0.033
(0.04) | -0.027
(0.04) | | 到最近省会或特大城市可达时间 | -0.168***
(0.06) | -0.147***
(0.06) | -0.099**
(0.05) | -0.094**
(0.05) | -0.046
(0.07) | -0.047
(0.07) | | R2 | 0.199 | 0.192 | 0.447 | 0.469 | 0.712 | 0.711 | | Log likelihood | -175.61 | -174.90 | -153.15 | -151.39 | -50.31 | -51.15 | | 样本量 | 229 | 229 | 285 | 285 | 155 | 155 |
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