不确定性视角下的中国省际人口迁移机制分析

蒲英霞, 武振伟, 葛莹, 孔繁花

Analyzing the spatial mechanism of interprovincial migration in China under uncertainty

PU Yingxia, WU Zhenwei, GE Ying, KONG Fanhua

表4 BMA加权后空间OD模型中各解释变量的效应分布

Tab. 4 Effects distribution of explanatory variables in spatial OD models after BMA probability weighting

变量 总体效应 迁出地效应 迁入地效应 网络效应 Lower 5% 均值 Upper 95% Lower 5% 均值 Upper 95% Lower 5% 均值 Upper 95% Lower 5% 均值 Upper 95% POP 2.281 3.254 3.809 1.511 1.712 1.909 0.137 0.156 0.175 1.128 1.386 1.729 GDP -2.611 -2.172 -1.775 -1.307 -1.116 -0.917 -0.144 -0.125 -0.107 -1.201 -0.931 -0.737 Wage -0.870 -0.732 -0.621 -0.056 -0.040 -0.025 -0.322 -0.291 -0.257 -0.520 -0.402 -0.325 Urban -0.847 -0.609 -0.405 0.051 0.141 0.231 -0.428 -0.371 -0.315 -0.523 -0.379 -0.272 HB 0.224 0.295 0.386 0.127 0.166 0.206 0.003 0.005 0.008 0.087 0.124 0.175 Edu 1.023 1.191 1.395 0.106 0.125 0.144 0.378 0.430 0.482 0.521 0.635 0.793 Flow 1.392 1.592 1.841 0.018 0.025 0.032 0.631 0.680 0.726 0.732 0.887 1.093