不确定性视角下的中国省际人口迁移机制分析

蒲英霞, 武振伟, 葛莹, 孔繁花

Analyzing the spatial mechanism of interprovincial migration in China under uncertainty

PU Yingxia, WU Zhenwei, GE Ying, KONG Fanhua

表3 BMA加权后的空间OD模型各系数估计的后验均值与90%可信区间

Tab. 3 Coefficient estimates and 95% credible intervals of origin and destination variables after BMA

变量 Lower 5% 均值 Upper 95% 变量 Lower 5% 均值 Upper 95% Const 3.329 3.664 4.041 Distance -0.311 -0.283 -0.254 O_POP 1.057 1.165 1.282 D_POP 0.099 0.111 0.122 O_GDP -0.887 -0.759 -0.648 D_GDP -0.108 -0.095 -0.080 O_Wage -0.029 -0.019 -0.010 D_Wage -0.300 -0.274 -0.246 O_Urban 0.050 0.106 0.168 D_Urban -0.392 -0.352 -0.308 O_HB 0.091 0.113 0.139 D_HB 0.000 0.001 0.003 O_Edu 0.064 0.074 0.085 D_Edu 0.363 0.404 0.449 O_Flow -0.005 -0.003 -0.001 D_Flow 0.609 0.639 0.671 ρ 0.579 0.616 0.652