价格支持政策改革背景下中国玉米市场空间关联

丁存振

Spatial correlation of corn markets under the background of price support policy reform in China

DING Cunzhen

表2 2001—2018年中国玉米市场关联矩阵表

Tab. 2 Correlation matrix of China's corn market from 2001 to 2018

北京 天津 河北 山西 内蒙古 辽宁 吉林 黑龙江 上海 江苏 浙江 安徽 福建 江西 山东 河南 北京 9.537 3.744 4.331 3.260 1.564 1.960 2.086 1.782 4.316 4.273 3.945 3.672 3.616 3.229 5.314 4.209 天津 3.041 9.254 4.986 3.510 2.045 2.329 1.755 2.031 4.735 4.126 4.418 3.392 4.032 3.357 5.294 4.545 河北 2.934 3.996 6.969 3.704 1.887 2.452 1.776 2.061 4.810 4.307 4.974 3.855 4.840 4.121 6.339 4.878 山西 2.431 3.777 4.245 7.780 1.810 1.688 1.257 1.488 4.892 4.455 4.488 4.324 4.190 3.862 5.650 5.370 内蒙古 2.324 3.356 3.837 4.061 9.209 3.659 2.731 3.473 3.866 3.223 3.436 3.043 3.741 3.065 3.348 3.230 辽宁 2.045 3.508 4.302 2.863 3.518 10.292 4.605 4.799 3.528 2.717 4.113 2.901 4.794 2.937 3.299 3.296 吉林 2.289 3.117 3.374 2.695 3.612 6.499 12.527 7.450 3.307 2.996 3.516 3.096 3.076 2.508 2.888 2.656 黑龙江 2.637 3.406 4.125 2.344 3.179 6.042 5.416 11.551 3.604 3.264 4.402 3.080 4.471 2.706 3.118 2.504 上海 2.508 3.140 4.514 3.814 2.063 1.683 1.287 1.947 7.719 5.453 4.861 3.527 5.838 4.367 5.936 4.422 江苏 3.229 3.043 3.865 3.958 1.630 1.440 1.187 1.503 5.746 8.638 5.751 4.721 4.493 3.942 7.253 5.549 浙江 2.626 2.971 4.144 3.096 2.121 2.360 1.255 2.123 5.393 5.111 7.884 4.097 5.749 4.650 6.279 4.114 安徽 2.990 3.817 4.127 4.503 1.842 2.076 1.873 1.823 3.931 4.988 4.533 8.433 3.863 3.702 5.278 5.385 福建 2.814 2.997 4.628 2.981 2.036 2.481 1.326 2.341 5.944 5.118 5.500 3.456 8.259 4.286 5.886 4.149 江西 2.557 2.729 3.806 3.777 1.525 1.643 1.214 1.798 4.438 4.572 5.777 4.188 5.109 8.227 5.210 4.113 山东 3.232 3.626 5.190 3.723 1.629 1.528 1.095 1.457 5.333 6.090 5.734 4.139 4.565 4.104 9.063 5.672 河南 3.021 3.399 4.821 4.465 1.555 1.516 1.524 1.379 5.072 5.430 5.179 4.847 4.083 3.743 7.190 7.909 湖北 2.545 2.660 3.924 4.067 1.626 1.688 1.254 1.636 4.780 4.564 5.283 4.450 4.339 4.348 6.075 4.849 湖南 2.580 2.373 4.047 3.701 1.950 1.581 1.194 1.886 4.884 4.847 5.371 4.407 5.446 5.226 5.408 3.969 广东 2.732 2.482 4.118 3.453 1.637 2.216 1.135 1.585 4.954 4.076 5.761 3.872 6.269 5.430 4.943 3.578 广西 2.590 2.222 3.894 3.141 1.762 1.980 1.251 1.368 4.421 3.748 4.612 3.567 5.027 4.642 4.888 3.759 海南 2.645 2.613 3.570 3.093 2.427 2.737 2.043 2.177 4.022 3.953 4.762 3.773 5.397 4.804 4.117 3.473 重庆 2.855 2.785 3.378 3.711 1.859 2.127 1.428 1.515 3.513 3.298 3.468 3.876 3.497 3.668 4.079 3.322 四川 3.073 2.997 4.041 3.077 2.405 2.423 1.778 1.821 3.388 2.987 3.154 2.975 3.879 3.990 3.797 3.775 贵州 1.827 1.910 2.680 3.630 1.928 2.153 1.806 1.936 3.759 2.845 3.012 3.776 3.303 2.798 3.833 3.093 云南 2.277 2.304 2.420 2.446 1.903 2.339 2.205 2.243 2.892 2.640 2.737 3.213 3.326 3.425 2.527 2.777 陕西 2.416 3.139 3.960 4.197 1.687 1.666 1.378 1.485 4.016 4.069 4.168 3.077 3.548 4.027 5.363 4.890 甘肃 2.235 2.762 3.739 3.580 2.237 2.043 1.563 2.060 3.572 2.918 3.897 3.070 3.417 4.135 4.402 3.947 青海 2.961 3.119 3.244 3.240 2.570 2.559 2.375 2.270 3.444 3.470 4.011 2.962 3.546 3.509 3.615 3.007 宁夏 2.670 2.761 3.573 3.489 2.431 2.737 1.768 2.440 3.606 3.538 4.065 2.661 3.810 3.143 4.292 3.813 新疆 2.691 3.119 4.257 2.762 2.787 2.105 2.645 2.497 3.644 3.236 2.562 2.975 3.103 2.708 3.644 3.108 To 76.777 87.874 115.138 100.346 61.229 69.710 54.208 64.373 123.807 116.312 127.490 104.992 124.368 110.432 139.264 115.451 Total 86.313 97.128 122.108 108.126 70.439 80.003 66.736 75.924 131.526 124.950 135.374 113.425 132.627 118.659 148.327 123.360 Net -13.687 -2.872 22.108 8.126 -29.561 -19.997 -33.264 -24.076 31.526 24.950 35.374 13.425 32.627 18.659 48.327 23.360 湖北 湖南 广东 广西 海南 重庆 四川 贵州 云南 陕西 甘肃 青海 宁夏 新疆 From 北京 3.770 3.322 3.937 3.100 2.543 2.791 3.073 1.667 2.347 3.247 1.974 1.830 3.129 2.431 90.463 天津 4.254 3.184 3.431 2.413 2.007 3.109 2.337 2.168 2.083 3.995 2.197 1.914 2.263 1.794 90.746 河北 4.107 3.829 4.039 2.784 2.655 2.265 2.212 1.728 1.619 3.283 1.915 1.413 2.052 2.194 93.031 山西 4.639 3.284 3.518 2.612 3.047 2.340 1.839 2.062 2.270 4.106 2.360 1.637 2.513 2.066 92.220 内蒙古 3.332 2.887 3.564 2.656 2.819 2.576 3.001 1.760 2.383 3.291 3.247 2.762 3.446 2.674 90.791 辽宁 3.048 2.271 3.623 3.198 3.183 2.111 2.518 1.764 2.714 2.431 2.049 2.512 2.993 2.069 89.708 吉林 2.216 2.338 2.414 2.310 2.322 1.828 2.319 3.347 2.972 1.859 2.208 3.188 2.441 2.630 87.473 黑龙江 2.690 2.727 3.635 2.335 2.810 1.500 2.509 3.044 2.030 1.980 2.048 2.179 2.948 1.718 88.449 上海 4.850 4.105 4.812 2.948 2.892 1.913 2.289 1.637 1.610 2.814 1.592 1.546 2.038 1.875 92.281 江苏 4.587 3.727 3.873 2.763 2.185 1.934 1.996 1.387 1.854 3.164 1.410 1.459 1.834 1.877 91.362 浙江 4.046 4.620 4.980 3.366 2.905 1.993 2.079 1.225 1.717 2.580 1.462 1.528 2.006 1.521 92.116 安徽 4.176 3.114 4.118 3.083 2.306 2.199 1.950 1.989 2.568 3.314 1.678 1.802 2.056 2.483 91.567 福建 3.800 4.330 5.487 3.398 3.294 1.550 2.058 1.205 1.563 2.562 1.411 1.408 2.375 1.356 91.741 江西 4.211 4.907 5.067 3.743 4.057 2.245 2.473 1.451 1.802 2.657 1.926 1.328 1.788 1.661 91.773 山东 4.722 3.964 3.704 2.919 2.189 2.108 1.931 1.398 1.589 2.983 1.474 1.245 1.914 1.679 90.937 河南 4.493 3.622 3.342 2.627 2.540 1.912 2.516 1.422 1.562 3.675 1.569 1.502 2.103 1.983 92.091 湖北 6.858 3.846 4.036 3.646 2.903 2.314 2.740 1.827 2.160 3.516 1.961 1.886 2.451 1.769 93.142 湖南 4.074 7.049 5.148 4.174 3.291 2.305 2.534 1.492 1.591 2.477 1.904 1.543 1.998 1.552 92.951 广东 4.122 4.598 8.398 3.531 3.674 2.103 2.521 1.359 1.777 3.198 1.673 1.291 2.081 1.435 91.602 广西 4.255 5.328 4.751 9.489 3.543 2.295 2.619 2.163 2.035 2.441 2.325 1.456 2.223 2.204 90.511 海南 3.474 3.857 5.159 3.712 8.815 1.919 2.426 1.777 2.735 2.933 1.661 1.859 2.126 1.942 91.185 重庆 4.179 3.676 4.175 4.458 2.741 8.849 3.874 3.067 3.982 3.576 2.416 2.121 2.509 1.995 91.151 四川 4.283 3.203 4.569 3.803 3.257 4.164 9.389 2.069 2.736 3.181 2.547 2.488 2.119 2.633 90.611 贵州 4.704 4.179 3.310 4.556 2.039 3.020 2.758 12.227 5.266 3.128 3.732 2.098 2.612 2.085 87.773 云南 3.137 2.862 4.109 4.197 2.947 3.374 2.741 5.623 15.304 3.063 3.494 1.984 3.103 2.387 84.696 陕西 4.877 2.881 3.930 2.464 3.159 2.782 2.295 2.270 3.091 10.189 2.492 1.509 2.852 2.123 89.811 甘肃 4.565 2.964 3.547 3.656 2.977 3.106 3.013 2.906 3.218 3.640 8.762 1.779 4.189 2.102 91.238 青海 3.322 3.247 3.377 2.867 2.723 2.723 3.407 2.730 2.299 2.390 3.301 13.111 2.506 2.092 86.889 宁夏 3.886 3.160 3.407 3.156 2.970 2.576 2.634 2.651 3.329 3.813 3.570 2.038 9.639 2.374 90.361 新疆 3.849 2.874 2.958 2.476 2.694 2.399 2.763 3.183 3.201 3.980 3.007 2.291 2.333 14.150 85.850 To 115.666 102.903 116.020 92.948 82.672 69.452 73.424 62.374 70.104 89.277 64.601 53.596 71.004 58.705 2714.519 Total 122.524 109.953 124.419 102.437 91.487 78.301 82.814 74.600 85.407 99.466 73.363 66.708 80.643 72.855 TCI Net 22.524 9.953 24.419 2.437 -8.513 -21.699 --17.186 -25.400 -14.593 -0.534 -26.637 -33.292 -19.357 -27.145 90.484%