中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性
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马丹阳,尹云鹤,吴绍洪,郑度
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Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario
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MA Danyang,YIN Yunhe,WU Shaohong,ZHENG Du
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表3 RCP 8.5情景下2040-2069年和2070-2099年中国干湿区的面积及其相对基准时段的变化(%)
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Tab. 3 Area percentages (%) of arid/humid climate regions in China during 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 under RCP 8.5, and percentages of area changed (%) relative to the baseline period
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| GCMs | 时段 | 湿润区 | | 半湿润区 | | 半干旱区 | | 干旱区 | | 面积 | 变化 | 面积 | 变化 | 面积 | 变化 | 面积 | 变化 | | 1981-2010 | 35.76 | | | 13.94 | | | 24.61 | | | 25.69 | | | NorESM1-M | 2040-2069 | 32.78 | -8.33 | 15.27 | 9.54 | 26.65 | 8.29 | 25.29 | -1.56 | | 2070-2099 | 31.47 | -12 | 16.26 | | 16.64 | 26.04 | | 5.81 | 26.23 | | 2.1 | | MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 2040-2069 | 32.13 | -10.15 | 16.24 | 16.5 | 27.62 | 12.23 | 24.01 | -6.54 | | 2070-2099 | 32.75 | -8.42 | 17.02 | | 22.09 | 26.8 | | 8.9 | 23.43 | | -8.8 | | IPSL-CM5A-LR | 2040-2069 | 35.37 | -1.09 | 16.35 | 17.29 | 22.33 | -9.26 | 25.95 | 1.01 | | 2070-2099 | 30.18 | -15.6 | 18.87 | | 35.37 | 23.14 | | -5.97 | 27.81 | | 8.25 | | HadGEM2-ES | 2040-2069 | 34.45 | -3.66 | 17.15 | 23.03 | 21.67 | -11.95 | 26.74 | 4.09 | | 2070-2099 | 33.97 | -5.01 | 18.71 | | 34.22 | 21.54 | | -12.47 | 25.78 | | 0.35 | | GFDL-ESM2M | 2040-2069 | 34.15 | -4.5 | 17.14 | 22.96 | 26.15 | 6.26 | 22.56 | -12.18 | | 2070-2099 | 30.26 | -15.38 | 20.03 | | 43.69 | 26.13 | | 6.18 | 23.57 | | -8.25 | | 多模式平均 | 2040-2069 | 33.64 | -5.93 | 16.21 | 16.28 | 24.95 | 1.38 | 25.19 | -1.95 | | 2070-2099 | 31.25 | -12.61 | 17.94 | | 28.69 | 24.98 | | 1.5 | 25.83 | | 0.54 |
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