未来情景下中国高温的人口暴露度变化及影响因素研究
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黄大鹏, 张蕾, 高歌
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Changes in population exposure to high temperature under a future scenario in China and its influencing factors
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Dapeng HUANG, Lei ZHANG, Ge GAO
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| 表3 中国不同气象地理分区高温和强危害性高温的人口暴露度变化的影响因素分析 |
| Tab. 3 Analysis of factors affecting changes in population exposure to high temperature and extremely high temperature in different meteorological geographical divisions of China |
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| 暴露度变化 | 气象地理分区 | 高温(≥ 35℃) | | 强危害性高温(≥ 40℃) | | 人口因子(%) | | 气候因子
(%) | 人口和气候
因子(%) | 人口因子
(%) | 气候因子
(%) | 人口和气候因子(%) | | 2021-2040年较1981-2010年增幅 | 华北 | 30.1 | 40.0 | 29.9 | | 19.0 | 45.6 | 35.5 | | 黄淮 | 13.5 | 63.4 | 23.1 | | 8.6 | 66.9 | 24.5 | | 江淮 | 11.1 | 68.3 | 20.6 | | 3.4 | 75.7 | 20.9 | | 江汉 | 9.0 | 72.1 | 18.9 | | 2.4 | 77.8 | 19.8 | | 江南 | 9.7 | 74.6 | 15.7 | | 1.9 | 78.6 | 19.5 | | 华南 | 3.9 | 78.9 | 17.2 | | -12.7 | 152.6 | -39.9 | | 西南 | 2.5 | 92.9 | 4.6 | | 0.3 | 96.4 | 0.3 | | 2041-2060年较2021-2040年增幅 | 华北 | 8.7 | 39.7 | 51.7 | | 2.6 | 43.5 | 53.9 | | 黄淮 | 2.8 | 62.3 | 34.9 | | 0.5 | 65.8 | 33.7 | | 江淮 | 2.0 | 67.9 | 30.1 | | 0.3 | 71.7 | 28.0 | | 江汉 | 1.7 | 73.0 | 25.3 | | 0.1 | 74.0 | 25.9 | | 江南 | 1.3 | 77.7 | 21.1 | | 0.1 | 76.0 | 23.9 | | 华南 | 0.3 | 76.2 | 23.5 | | -0.4 | 125.1 | -24.7 | | 西南 | -2.5 | 106.5 | -4.0 | | -0.4 | 107.6 | -7.1 | | 2061-2080年较2041-2060年增幅 | 华北 | 4.7 | 36.6 | 58.7 | | 0.7 | 40.0 | 59.2 | | 黄淮 | 14.6 | 58.8 | 39.8 | | 0.1 | 63.2 | 36.6 | | 江淮 | 1.1 | 64.3 | 34.6 | | 0.1 | 67.6 | 32.3 | | 江汉 | 1.1 | 71.3 | 27.6 | | 0.0 | 71.2 | 28.8 | | 江南 | 1.0 | 77.2 | 21.8 | | 0.1 | 75.4 | 24.6 | | 华南 | 0.2 | 71.7 | 28.1 | | 0.0 | 92.8 | 7.2 | | 西南 | -0.9 | 108.0 | -7.0 | | -0.1 | 106.7 | -6.6 | | 2081-2100年较2061-2080年增幅 | 华北 | 3.6 | 31.8 | 64.6 | | 0.3 | 35.3 | 64.4 | | 黄淮 | 1.7 | 48.7 | 49.6 | | 0.1 | 56.2 | 43.7 | | 江淮 | 1.5 | 54.3 | 44.2 | | 0.1 | 61.3 | 38.6 | | 江汉 | 2.0 | 61.2 | 36.9 | | 0.0 | 65.5 | 34.5 | | 江南 | 2.1 | 66.4 | 31.5 | | 0.1 | 69.0 | 30.9 | | 华南 | 0.4 | 62.1 | 37.6 | | 0.0 | 80.9 | 19.1 | | 西南 | 0.4 | 99.9 | -0.3 | | 0.0 | 100.6 | -0.6 |
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