地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (2): 147-156.doi: 10.11821/xb201202001

• 城市与区域发展 •    下一篇

地区间贸易流量的产业—空间模型构建与应用

刘卫东1,2, 刘红光1,2, 范晓梅3, 陈杰4, 唐志鹏1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    3. 南京信息工程大学遥感学院, 南京 210044;
    4. 国家统计局国民经济核算司, 北京 100826
  • 收稿日期:2011-10-18 修回日期:2011-11-29 出版日期:2012-02-20 发布日期:2012-04-16
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41125005, 41101118); 中科院方向性项目(KACX1-YW-1001); 中国博士后科学基金项目(20100480438)

Sector-Specific Spatial Statistic Model for Estimating Inter-regional Trade Flows: A Case Study of Agricultural, Chemical and Electronic Sectors in China

LIU Weidong1,2, LIU Hongguang1,2, FAN Xiaomei3, CHEN Jie4, TANG Zhipeng1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    4. National Bureau of Statistics of China, Beijing 100826, China
  • Received:2011-10-18 Revised:2011-11-29 Online:2012-02-20 Published:2012-04-16
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41125005, No.41101118;National Project 973, No.2012CB95570002; Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy ofSciences, No.KACX1-YW-1001; China Postdoctor Science Foundation, No.20100480438

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摘要： 通过深入剖析区域间经济联系的经济地理学理论基础,考虑到同业影响因子,重新构建引力模型,并引入空间滞后因子,利用地理加权回归方法建立了估算区域间贸易流量的产业—空间统计模型,并在中国30 个省区投入产出表的基础上,以省区间农业、化工、通信电子3 个产业贸易流量的估算为例对上述方法进行了说明。结果表明：① 空间统计模型的应用可以显著提高区域间贸易流量的估算可靠性；② 随着空间权函数中带宽的缩小,贸易流量显得更加集中。因此,带宽在一定程度上反映了地理活动的空间集聚程度,不同行业应选取不同带宽；③ 不同行业有不同的同业影响机制和贸易特征,农业输出地以中部地区为主,目的地以沿海地区为主,具有一定的同业竞争关系,而化工、通信行业的产业流动主要发生在东部地区内部,具有很强的同业合作关系。

关键词: 产业—空间模型, 地理加权回归, 产业联系, 空间计量

Abstract: Based on theories of regional interactions and competition and the gravity model, this paper first develops a sector-specific spatial statistic model to estimate inter-regional trade flows by employing a geographically weighted regression technique. The model takes into consideration sector-specific input-output relationships. That is, in some sectors there exists strong competition between regions while other sectors may need close inter-regional cooperation in terms of supply linkages. The former case results in less inter-regional trade but the latter witnesses more trade. The model also introduces the spatial lag factor of trade flows between regions. Then, the paper applies the model to estimate inter-provincial trade flows of three sample sectors, i.e., agriculture, chemistry and electronics, with data from the 2007 provincial input-output tables of China. The computing result shows that the sector-specific model can significantly increase the reliability of inter-regional trade flow estimation. It also reveals that the bandwidth of weighting function is a key factor in the sector-specific model; that is, the smaller the bandwidth, the more the trade flows. To a certain degree, the bandwidth reflects the degree of geographical concentration of economic activities while the bandwidth itself is different from sector to sector. Different sectors display different features of inter-regional trade flows. For example, agricultural trade flows are mainly from the inland provinces to the coastal ones and show strong intra-sector competition while trade flows of chemical and electronic sectors take place mainly inside the coastal regions and show an intra-sector cooperation relationship.

Key words: sector-specific spatial statistic model, gravity model, geographically weighted regression, intra-sector trade