黄河源区径流量与区域气候变化的多时间尺度相关

doi:10.11821/xb200901012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用交叉小波变换方法，分析了黄河源区实测径流量与区域降水量、蒸发量以及最高、最低气温之间的时频域统计特征，讨论了黄河源区径流与区域气候变化之间的多时间尺度相关。结果表明，黄河源区径流和区域气候变化具有多时间尺度结构，两者都存在准2a、4a、 6~8a、12~14a 和20a 以上尺度的显著变化周期，不同尺度周期振荡能量的强弱和时域分布的位相差异是两者相关不稳定和存在时延相关的重要原因。径流与区域降水量之间正相关振荡的凝聚性最强，区域降水量对径流变化起主控作用，前期降水异常对后期径流变化具有持续性影响。径流变化与区域蒸发量存在显著负相关振荡，年际尺度相关存在不稳定和时延现象。年代际尺度上径流与最高气温的负相关比其与最低气温的正相关凝聚性更强，最高气温升高对增大流域蒸发量导致径流补给的减少作用大于最低气温升高引起冰雪融水补给的增大作用；两者年际尺度相关不稳定，径流对气温变化的响应时间不同。分析认为，区域降水量是黄河源区径流变化的主导因子，最高气温是重要因子；在区域降水量逐年减小的背景下，气温升高进一步加剧了径流量的减小。区域蒸发量和最低气温变化对径流量也有不同程度的影响，气候因子的综合作用是黄河源区径流变化的根本原因。

关键词: 黄河源区, 河川径流, 气候变化, 交叉小波

Abstract:

The cross wavelet transform method is adopted to study the time-frequency characteristics and multitime scale correlations between the runoff and precipitation, evaporation, maximum and minimum temperature in the source region of the Yellow River. The results show that the variations of runoff and regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River present periodic oscillations of different significance in frequency space and the localization characteristics in time space. There are significant periods at scales of quasi-biannual, 4a, 6-8a, 12-14a and above 20a in both of the runoff and regional climate variations. The power of periodic oscillation at different frequency scales and phase differences in time space are important causes for the unstableness and the lag correlations. The coherence of positive correlation between runoff and regional precipitation is the highest in the climatic factors, indicating that the variations of regional precipitation have a predominant effect on the runoff variations. The unconventionality of regional precipitation at pre-period has durative influence on the runoff. Negative correlation between runoff and regional evaporation is significant, but unstable with lag correlations on the interannual timescale. The coherence of negative correlation between runoff and maximum temperature is higher than the positive correlation between runoff and minimum temperature on interdecadal timescale, that is to say, the effect of decreasing the runoff supply due to maximum temperature rise induced the regional evaporation increase is greater than the effect of increasing the runoff supply due to minimum temperature rise caused ice thawing and snowmelt in the long term change. The unstableness of the interannual timescale correlations between runoff and maximum and minimum temperature is distributed in some of the time space. And the phase differences of them indicate that responding time of runoff to temperature variations is different. Analysis makes it known that the primary factor is the regional precipitation on the runoff variations, maximum temperature is important factor, and the regional evaporation and minimum temperature also have different influences on the runoff variations. Synthetic effect of regional climatic elements is the prime cause for runoff variations in the source region of the Yellow River.

Key words: source region of the Yellow River, runoff, climate change, cross wavelet transform

孙卫国,程炳岩,李荣. 黄河源区径流量与区域气候变化的多时间尺度相关[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(1): 117-127.

SUN Weiguo,CHENG Bingyan,LI Rong. Multitime Scale Correlations Between Runoff and Regional Climate Variations in the Source Region of the Yellow River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(1): 117-127.

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