A Quantitative Evaluation on Regional Market Potential in China
SHI Minjun1,2, ZHAO Zhao1,2, JIN Fengjun3
1. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
2. Research Center of Fictitous economy and Data Science, CAS, Beijing 100080, China;
3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
This paper focuses on market potential by taking it as an indicator of market accessibility from a viewpoint of location-market connection, based on the analysis of district-level data in China. The results indicate that market potential index (MPI) degrades from the coastal areas to the inland areas. Furthermore, disparity of market potential between the coastal areas and the inland areas is still expanding unceasingly. Manufacturing industries concentrate in the regions with high market potential. A significant spatial correlation between market potential index and regional economic performance is observed at regional level. Such a spatial correlation has verified that market accessibility is one of the determinants of location choice for manufacturing industries. It also has revealed that there is a circulatory causality between market potential and regional development. The circulatory causality may spur the coastal areas to keep predominance in future and then lead to a continuous expansion of regional disparity. As the inter-regional economic exchange is significant to location-market connection, location analysis should take into account the inter-regional economic exchange. Western China is restricted to develop external linkage with the coastal areas due to long distance to the latter and expensive transport cost. Therefore, the western areas should make a point of expanding internal market to improve market accessibility.
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