地理学报 ›› 2007, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (10): 1063-1072.doi: 10.11821/xb200710006

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国地级行政区域市场潜力评价

石敏俊1,2, 赵曌1,2, 金凤君3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京100049;
    2. 中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心, 北京100080;
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2007-02-06 修回日期:2007-08-22 出版日期:2007-10-25 发布日期:2010-08-04
  • 作者简介:石敏俊(1964-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师。主要从事空间经济过程与区域可持续发展的经济学研究。 Email: mjshi@gucas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院百人计划择优支持项目; 国家自然科学基金重点项目(40635026); 国家自然科学基金创新群体项 目(70621001)

A Quantitative Evaluation on Regional Market Potential in China

SHI Minjun1,2, ZHAO Zhao1,2, JIN Fengjun3   

  1. 1. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
    2. Research Center of Fictitous economy and Data Science, CAS, Beijing 100080, China;
    3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2007-02-06 Revised:2007-08-22 Online:2007-10-25 Published:2010-08-04
  • Supported by:

    Hundred Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 40635026, No.70621001

摘要:

从产地—市场空间关系角度, 定量分析了我国地级行政区域的市场潜力及其空间格局, 揭示了市场通达性与区域发展之间的关联。我国市场潜力指数从沿海地区向内陆地区逐级递减,形成了以沿海地区为中心、内陆地区为外围的中心- 外围格局, 而且差异在继续扩大。市场潜力与区域经济发展之间在宏观尺度上呈现高度的空间关联, 市场潜力高的区域是经济总量集中分布的地区。这种关联印证了市场通达性是区域经济发展的重要影响因素之一, 市场潜力与区域经济发展之间存在着循环因果关系。这种循环累积效应使得沿海地区在未来发展中将继续处于优势地位, 并导致区域发展差异的进一步扩大。鉴于地区间经济联系对产地- 市场空间联系的重要性, 经济区位分析需将视野从本地市场扩展到地区间经济联系。西部地区发展与沿海地区的经济联系受到距离和运输成本的限制, 应重视扩大内需, 改善其市场通达性, 促进当地经济发展。

关键词: 产地—市场空间关系, 市场通达性, 市场潜力, 运输成本, 区域发展, 中国

Abstract:

This paper focuses on market potential by taking it as an indicator of market accessibility from a viewpoint of location-market connection, based on the analysis of district-level data in China. The results indicate that market potential index (MPI) degrades from the coastal areas to the inland areas. Furthermore, disparity of market potential between the coastal areas and the inland areas is still expanding unceasingly. Manufacturing industries concentrate in the regions with high market potential. A significant spatial correlation between market potential index and regional economic performance is observed at regional level. Such a spatial correlation has verified that market accessibility is one of the determinants of location choice for manufacturing industries. It also has revealed that there is a circulatory causality between market potential and regional development. The circulatory causality may spur the coastal areas to keep predominance in future and then lead to a continuous expansion of regional disparity. As the inter-regional economic exchange is significant to location-market connection, location analysis should take into account the inter-regional economic exchange. Western China is restricted to develop external linkage with the coastal areas due to long distance to the latter and expensive transport cost. Therefore, the western areas should make a point of expanding internal market to improve market accessibility.

Key words: location-market connection, market accessibility, market potential, transport cost, regional development, China