关键词: 环渤海地区, 区域承载力, 趋势预测, 对策措施

Abstract: Bohai Rim, one of the developed and urbanized regions in China, plays an important role in the new century development. Now the load on the regional resource and environment has been over carried which has been one of the main restrictive factors for the future socioeconomic development in this region. After retrospection of the previous research methods on regional carrying capacity at home and abroad, this paper takes the state space as a basic method to measure regional carrying capacity on account of implementing regional sustainable development strategy. It does quantitative evaluation of regional carrying capacity by building an index system. The conclusions are as follows. The carrying status of resource and environment was over loaded from 1994 to 1998 in this region. Seriously inadequate per capita possession of water resource and utilizable water decreasing caused by pollution are main restrictive factors. Furthermore serious shortage of water resource has close relationship with furious speed extensive economic development pattern. In view of the above mentioned conclusions, this paper simulates and forecasts the regional carrying capacity and status by the agency of system dynamics. The general trend is briefed below. The over loaded tendency remains as before, but the carrying status of each time is evolving toward better. It is forecasted that the carrying status will approach the carrying capacity in the year 2015 which shows this region will develop from weaker to stronger sustainable direction. According to this forecast, the authors raise four countermeasures as follows: (1) economic countermeasure: seeking continuous, moderate and coordinated economic growth and adjusting the industrial structure and location; (2) resource countermeasure: adopting the principle of increasing income and decreasing expenditure for shortage resources and building the regulation of utilizing resource upon consideration; (3) environmental countermeasure: strictly executing the total emission control of pollutant, adopting the resource consumption into national economic accounting system progressively and increasing the input to improve eco environmental quality; and (4) population countermeasure: strictly controlling the quantity and improving the quality.

Key words: Bohai Rim, regional carrying capacity, forecasting tendency countermeasure