基于农户利用效率的平原和山区耕地利用形态比较

doi:10.11821/dlxb202102016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用形态是土地利用转型研究的核心内容。农户土地利用决策是引起土地利用系统变化与土地利用转型的深层因素,当前学者从多个视角对耕地利用形态展开了系列的理论与实证研究,但从农户层面深入探讨耕地利用隐性形态及其形成机理的研究相对较少。为揭示农户耕地利用隐性形态的差异及其影响因素,本文以农户耕地利用效率为切入点基于平原区寿光市和山区沂源县农户调研数据,从农户家庭劳动力要素变动与农业生产决策视角对农户的耕地利用效率进行了测算,构建结构方程模型探讨了农户耕地利用效率的驱动机制。研究表明,寿光市和沂源县耕地利用效率较低,并且存在地貌类型和农户类型上的差异,平原（寿光市）耕地利用效率要高于山区（沂源县）,老年农户耕地利用效率低于年轻农户。在影响路径方面,农户耕地经营规模、生产要素投入和耕地产出直接影响耕地利用效率,而种植结构对耕地利用效率的影响不显著。

关键词: 耕地利用效率, 农户, 土地利用转型, 隐性形态, 平原, 山区

Abstract:

Land use morphology is the core content of land use transition research. Farmers' land use decision is a deep factor that causes the change of land use system and land use transition. At present, scholars have carried out a series of theoretical and empirical studies on the morphology of farmland use from multiple perspectives, but there are few studies concerning the recessive morphology and its forming mechanism of farmland use from the perspective of farmer household. In order to reveal the differences of recessive morphology of farmers' farmland use and their influencing factors, this paper measured the farmland use efficiency from the perspectives of farmland use efficiency, labor changes and agricultural production decision-making of farmer household based on the survey data of farmer households in Shouguang and Yiyuan, and probed the driving mechanism of farmland use efficiency of farmer household by constructing a structural equation model. The results show that the farmland use efficiency of Shouguang and Yiyuan is low, and there are differences in geomorphological type and farmer type. The efficiency of farmland use in the plain area is slightly higher than that in the mountainous area, and the farmland use efficiency of elderly farmers is lower than that of young farmers. In terms of impact path, farmers' management scale and production factor input as well as farmland output can directly affect farmland use efficiency, while the planting structure has no significant influence on farmland use efficiency.

Key words: farmland use efficiency, farmer, land use transition, recessive morphology, plain area, mountainous area

廖柳文, 高晓路, 龙花楼, 汤礼莎, 陈坤秋, 马恩朴. 基于农户利用效率的平原和山区耕地利用形态比较[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 471-486.

LIAO Liuwen, GAO Xiaolu, LONG Hualou, TANG Lisha, CHEN Kunqiu, MA Enpu. A comparative study of farmland use morphology in plain and mountainous areas based on farmers' land use efficiency[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 471-486.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

样本基本特征

变量名称			变量说明及样本占比(%)
个人属性		年龄	44岁及以下(P:19.35; M:6.36);45~59岁(P:55.38; M:48.18);60岁及以上(P:25.27; M:45.45)
		性别	男(P:65.59; M:56.36);女(P:34.41; M:43.64)
		文化程度	小学及以下(P:27.42; M:68.18);初中(P:53.23; M:24.55);高中(中专)(P:18.82; M:6.36);大专及以上(P:0.53; M:0.91)
		健康程度	健康(P:74.73; M:44.55);一般(P:16.67; M:30.00);较差(P:8.60; M:25.45)
		务农年限	10年及以下(P:25.81; M:23.64);11~20年(P:31.18; M:12.73);21~30年(P:27.42; M:16.36);31年以上(P:15.59; M:47.27)
家庭农业劳动力状况		农业劳动力数量	家庭农业劳动力数量：1~2人(P:82.80; M:94.55);3~4人(P:16.67; M:5.45);4人以上(P:0.53; M:0)
		农业劳动力质量	家庭健康农业劳动力占比：0(P:20.97; M:60.00);(0, 1)(P:13.98; M:13.64);1(P:65.05; M:26.36)
		农业劳动力结构	老年农业劳动力占比：0(P:72.04; M:50.91);(0, 1)(P:12.90; M:8.18);1(P:15.05; M:40.91)
农业生产特征	耕地经营规模	家庭实际耕作面积	2亩及以下(P:13.44; M:24.55);(2, 6]亩(P:54.30; M:56.36);(6, 10]亩(P:21.51; M:16.36);10亩以上(P:10.75; M:2.73)
		转入耕地面积	0亩(P:55.38; M:79.09);(0, 4]亩(P:29.57; M:17.27);(4, 8]亩(P:9.68; M:2.73);8亩以上(P:5.37; M:0.91)
		转出耕地面积	0亩(P:84.95; M:90.00);(0, 4]亩(P:13.44; M:9.09);(4, 8]亩(P:1.61; M:0.91)
		撂荒耕地面积	0亩(P:98.92; M:86.36);(0, 1]亩(P:0.54; M:9.09);(1, 3]亩(P:0.54; M:2.73);3亩以上(P:0; M:1.82)
	农业收支情况	农业收入	≤ 1万(P:2.69; M:34.55);(1, 3]万(P:9.68; M:44.55);(3, 5]万(P:9.14; M:11.82);(5, 7]万(P:7.53; M:4.55);(7, 9]万(P:11.83; M:3.64);>9万(P:59.13; M:0.91)
		经济作物产值变化	减少(P:8.06; M:12.73);基本没变(P:29.03; M:44.55);增加(P:62.90; M:42.73)
		粮食作物产值变化	减少(P:12.37; M:40.91);基本没变(P:84.95; M:59.09);增加(P:2.69; M:0)
		农业支出	≤ 1万(P:13.98; M:67.27);(1, 3]万(P:41.40; M:28.18);(3, 5]万(P:22.04; M:4.55);(5, 7]万(P:9.68; M:0);(7, 9]万(P:5.91; M:0);>9万(P:6.99; M:0)
	种植结构变化	经济作物面积变化	减少(P:7.53; M:10.00);基本没变(P:56.99; M:51.82);增加(P:35.48; M:38.18)
	种植结构变化	粮食作物面积变化	减少(P:13.44; M:40.91);基本没变(P:86.56; M:59.09);增加(P:0; M:0)
	耕地条件	灌溉条件	滴灌(P:60.75; M:0);喷灌(P:10.22; M:7.27);漫灌(P:25.81; M:62.73);其他(P:3.23; M:30.00)
		耕地肥力状况	好(P:65.05; M:33.64);一般(P:33.87; M:52.73);坏(P:1.08; M:13.64)
		主要耕作方式	人工耕种(P:9.68; M:76.36);半机械化耕种(P:87.10; M:21.82);机械化耕种(P:3.23; M:1.82)

表1

图3

表2

表3

图4

表4

表5

参考文献 47

[1]	Grainger A. National land use morphology: Patterns and possibilities. Geography, 1995,80(3):235-245.
[2]	Long H L. Land Use Transitions and Rural Restructuring in China. Singapore: Springer, 2020.
[3]	Song Xiaoqing, Wu Zhifeng, Ouyang Zhu. Changes of cultivated land function in China since 1949. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014,69(4):435-447.
	[ 宋小青, 吴志峰, 欧阳竹. 1949年以来中国耕地功能变化. 地理学报, 2014,69(4):435-447.]
[4]	Long H L, Qu Y, Tu S S, et al. Development of land use transitions research in China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020,30(7):1195-1214.
[5]	Long Hualou. Land use transition and rural transformation development. Progress in Geography, 2012,31(2):131-138.
	[ 龙花楼. 论土地利用转型与乡村转型发展. 地理科学进展, 2012,31(2):131-138.]
[6]	Long Hualou, Tu Shuangshuang. Land use transition and rural vitalization. China Land Science, 2018,32(7):1-6.
	[ 龙花楼, 屠爽爽. 土地利用转型与乡村振兴. 中国土地科学, 2018,32(7):1-6.]
[7]	Long Hualou, Li Xiubin. Cultivated land transition and land consolidation and reclamation in China: Research progress and frame. Progress in Geography, 2006,25(5):67-76.
	[ 龙花楼, 李秀彬. 中国耕地转型与土地整理: 研究进展与框架. 地理科学进展, 2006,25(5):67-76.]
[8]	Qu Yi, Long Hualou. A framework of multi-disciplinary comprehensive research on recessive farmland transition in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(7):1226-1241.
	[ 曲艺, 龙花楼. 中国耕地利用隐性形态转型的多学科综合研究框架. 地理学报, 2018,73(7):1226-1241.]
[9]	Zhang Yingnan, Long Hualou, Ge Dazhuan, et al. Spatio-temporal characteristics and dynamic mechanism of farmland functions evolution in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(3):518-534.
	[ 张英男, 龙花楼, 戈大专, 等. 黄淮海平原耕地功能演变的时空特征及其驱动机制. 地理学报, 2018,73(3):518-534.]
[10]	Cheng Feng, Wang Hongbo, Yun Wenju. Study on investigation and assessment of cultivated land quality grade in China. China Land Science, 2014,28(2):75-82.
	[ 程锋, 王洪波, 郧文聚. 中国耕地质量等级调查与评定. 中国土地科学, 2014,28(2):75-82.]
[11]	Zhang Li xin, Zhu Daolin, Xie Baopeng, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern evolvement and driving factors of cultivated land utilization efficiency of the major grain producing area in China. Resources Science, 2017,39(4):608-619.
	[ 张立新, 朱道林, 谢保鹏, 等. 中国粮食主产区耕地利用效率时空格局演变及影响因素: 基于180个地级市的实证研究. 资源科学, 2017,39(4):608-619.]
[12]	Zhang Rongtian, Jiao Huafu. Spatial-temporal pattern differentiation and its mechanism analysis of using efficiency for provincial cultivated land in China. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2015,31(2):277-287.
	[ 张荣天, 焦华富. 中国省际耕地利用效率时空格局分异与机制分析. 农业工程学报, 2015,31(2):277-287.]
[13]	Han H B, Zhang X Y. Static and dynamic cultivated land use efficiency in China: A minimum distance to strong efficient frontier approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020,246:119002. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119002.
[14]	Lin H C, Hülsbergen K. A new method for analyzing agricultural land use efficiency, and its application in organic and conventional farming systems in southern Germany. European Journal of Agronomy, 2017,83:15-27.
[15]	Kuang B, Lu X H, Min Z, et al. Provincial cultivated land use efficiency in China: Empirical analysis based on the SBM-DEA model with carbon emissions considered. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2020,115:119874. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119874.
[16]	Tu S S, Long H L, Zhang Y N, et al. Rural restructuring at village level under rapid urbanization in metropolitan suburbs of China and its implications for innovations in land use policy. Habitat International, 2018,77(7):143-152.
[17]	Long Hualou, Ge Dazhuan, Wang Jieyong. Progress and prospects of the coupling research on land use transitions and rural transformation development. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019,74(12):2547-2559.
	[ 龙花楼, 戈大专, 王介勇. 土地利用转型与乡村转型发展耦合研究进展及展望. 地理学报, 2019,74(12):2547-2559.]
[18]	Li Xiubin. Explanation of land use changes. Progress in Geography, 2002,21(3):195-203.
	[ 李秀彬. 土地利用变化的解释. 地理科学进展, 2002,21(3):195-203.]
[19]	Ma Cong, Liu Liming, Ren Guoping, et al. Analysis of coupling coordination degree between livelihood strategies and land use behavior of farmers in rapid urbanization area. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2018,34(14):249-256.
	[ 马聪, 刘黎明, 任国平, 等. 快速城镇化地区农户生计策略与土地利用行为耦合协调度分析. 农业工程学报, 2018,34(14):249-256.]
[20]	Zhou Di, Shao Jing-an, Liu Jinping, et al. A study of the difference in farmland use efficiency between different farmer household types: A case study of Wulong County of Chongqing. Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2017,39(1):141-149.
	[ 周迪, 邵景安, 刘金萍, 等. 不同类型农户耕地利用效率差异研究: 以重庆武隆为例. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2017,39(1):141-149.]
[21]	Yang Jun, Yang Gangqiao, Hu Xianhui. Impact of agricultural labor aging on farmland use efficiency of rural households: An empirical study from regions of differing economic development levels. Resources Science, 2011,33(9):1691-1698.
	[ 杨俊, 杨钢桥, 胡贤辉. 农业劳动力年龄对农户耕地利用效率的影响: 来自不同经济发展水平地区的实证. 资源科学, 2011,33(9):1691-1698.]
[22]	Ye Hao, Pu Lijie. Study on the cultivated land use efficiency between different regions of China and its convergence. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011,26(9):1467-1474.
	[ 叶浩, 濮励杰. 我国耕地利用效率的区域差异及其收敛性研究. 自然资源学报, 2011,26(9):1467-1474.]
[23]	Wang Liangjian, Li Hui. Cultivated land use efficiency and the regional characteristics of its influencing factors in China: By using a panel data of 281 prefectural cities and the stochastic frontier production function. Geographical Research, 2014,33(11):1995-2004.
	[ 王良健, 李辉. 中国耕地利用效率及其影响因素的区域差异: 基于281个市的面板数据与随机前沿生产函数方法. 地理研究, 2014,33(11):1995-2004.]
[24]	Lu Xinhai, Kuang Bing, Li Jing. Regional differences and its influencing factors of cultivated land use efficiency under carbon emission constraint. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018,33(4):657-668.
	[ 卢新海, 匡兵, 李菁. 碳排放约束下耕地利用效率的区域差异及其影响因素. 自然资源学报, 2018,33(4):657-668.]
[25]	Wu Zhaojuan, Gao Lihong. Study on efficiency of cultivated land use at plot scale in hilly-mountainous region. Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2013,26(5):1971-1976.
	[ 吴兆娟, 高立洪. 丘陵山区地块尺度耕地利用效率研究. 西南农业学报, 2013,26(5):1971-1976.]
[26]	Li Xiubin, Zhao Yuluan. Forest transition, agricultural land marginalization and ecological restoration. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011,21(10):91-95.
	[ 李秀彬, 赵宇鸾. 森林转型、农地边际化与生态恢复. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011,21(10):91-95.]
[27]	Liao Liuwen, Gao Xiaolu. Progress and prospect of research on the impact of population aging on rural development. Progress in Geography, 2018,37(5):617-626.
	[ 廖柳文, 高晓路. 人口老龄化对乡村发展影响研究进展与展望. 地理科学进展, 2018,37(5):617-626.]
[28]	Li Xiubin. Theoretical hypotheses about agricultural land use changes and the relevant propositions about environmental impacts. Advances in Earth Science, 2008,23(11):1124-1129.
	[ 李秀彬. 农地利用变化假说与相关的环境效应命题. 地球科学进展, 2008,23(11):1124-1129.]
[29]	Li Shengfa, Li Xiubin. Economic characteristics and the mechanism of farmland marginalization in mountainous areas of China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(5):803-817.
	[ 李升发, 李秀彬. 中国山区耕地利用边际化表现及其机理. 地理学报, 2018,73(5):803-817.]
[30]	Shi T C, Li X B, Xin L J, et al. The spatial distribution of farmland abandonment and its inﬂuential factors at the township level: A case study in the mountainous area of China. Land Use Policy, 2018,70:510-520.
[31]	Liu Ying, Huang Jikun. A Multi-objective Decision Model of farmers' crop production. Economic Research Journal, 2010,45(1):148-157.
	[ 刘莹, 黄季焜. 农户多目标种植决策模型与目标权重的估计. 经济研究, 2010,45(1):148-157.]
[32]	Liu J, Jin X B, Xu W Y, et al. A new framework of land use efficiency for the coordination among food, economy and ecology in regional development. Science of the Total Environment, 2020,710:135670. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135670.
[33]	Feng Xiaohong, Zhou Baotong, Chen Yunxuan. Analysis on cultivated land use efficiency based on DEA: A case study of Fengdu County. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2011,27(26):249-253.
	[ 冯晓红, 周宝同, 陈昀暄. 基于DEA方法的耕地利用效率分析: 以重庆市丰都县为例. 中国农学通报, 2011,27(26):249-253.]
[34]	Wang Zilin, Fang Shiming. Evaluation of national park management effectiveness based on SE-DEA: A case study of ten national parks system. Mountain Research, 2020,38(1):93-104.
	[ 王子琳, 方世明. 基于SE-DEA的国家公园管理效能评估: 以十个国家公园体制试点为例. 山地学报, 2020,38(1):93-104.]
[35]	Andersen P, Petersen N C. A procedure for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis. Management Science, 1993,39(10):1261-1264.
[36]	Wu Minglong. Structural Equation Model: Operation and Application of AMOS. Chongqing: Chongqing University Press, 2010.
	[ 吴明隆. 结构方程模型: AMOS的操作与应用. 重庆: 重庆大学出版社, 2010.]
[37]	Byrne B M, Erlbaums L. Structural Equation Modeling with AMOS: Basic Concepts, Applications, and Programming. New York: Routledge, 2009.
[38]	Li Tingting. Measuring land use transition: The case of farming area of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[D]. Beijing: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, 2016.
	[ 李婷婷. 土地利用转型的测度研究: 以黄淮海农区为例[D]. 北京: 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 2016.]
[39]	Yang Wenyue, Cao Xiaoshu. The influence mechanism of travel-related CO₂ emissions from the perspective of residential self-selection: A case study of Guangzhou. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(2):346-361.
	[ 杨文越, 曹小曙. 居住自选择视角下的广州出行碳排放影响机理. 地理学报, 2018,73(2):346-361.]
[40]	Zhou Xiaoshi, Li Gucheng, Liu Cheng. Human capital, land scale and agricultural production efficiency. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2018(2):8-17.
	[ 周晓时, 李谷成, 刘成. 人力资本、耕地规模与农业生产效率. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2018(2):8-17.]
[41]	An Xiangsheng, Chen Yuanyuan, Ling Riping. Analysis of sustainable non-agricultural livelihoods of urbanized farmers based on structural equation Model: A case study of Shuozhou city in northwestern Shanxi province. Geographical Research, 2014,33(11):2021-2033.
	[ 安祥生, 陈园园, 凌日平. 基于结构方程模型的城镇化农民可持续非农生计分析: 以晋西北朔州市为例. 地理研究, 2014,33(11):2021-2033.]
[42]	Long Dongping, Li Tongsheng, Yu Zhengsong, et al. Research of farmers adoption behavior of agricultural insurance based on SEM: A case study of the plastic greenhouse "Yin Bao Fu" insurance in Yangling Modern Agricultural Demonstration Park. Human Geography, 2014,29(4):78-84.
	[ 龙冬平, 李同昇, 于正松, 等. 基于结构方程模型的农业保险农户采用行为研究: 以杨凌现代农业示范园区设施大棚“银保富”险种为例. 人文地理, 2014,29(4):78-84.]
[43]	Ji Xiaofeng, Xie Shikun. Coupling mechanism of URTT composite system in Yunnan Province based on Structural Equation Model. Economic Geography, 2019,39(6):46-57.
	[ 戢晓峰, 谢世坤. 基于SEM的云南省URTT复合系统耦合协调机制研究. 经济地理, 2019,39(6):46-57.]
[44]	Sikor T, Müller D, Stahl J. Land fragmentation and cropland abandonment in Albania: Implications for the roles of state and community in post-socialist land consolidation. World Development, 2009,37(8):1411-1423.
[45]	Li Xiaojian, Zhou Xiongfei, Qiao Jiajun et al. Self-developing ability of rural households and its impact on growth of the household income: A geographical study. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009,64(6):643-653.
	[ 李小建, 周雄飞, 乔家君, 等. 不同环境下农户自主发展能力对收入增长的影响. 地理学报, 2009,64(6):643-653.]
[46]	Song Xiaoqing. Discussion on land use transition research framework. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017,72(3):471-487.
	[ 宋小青. 论土地利用转型的研究框架. 地理学报, 2017,72(3):471-487.]
[47]	Ren Li, Wu Meng, Gan Chenlin, et al. Decision-making mechanism simulation of farmers' land investment behavior in suburbs based on structural equation modeling-system dynamics. Resources Science, 2020,42(2):286-297.
	[ 任立, 吴萌, 甘臣林, 等. 基于SEM-SD模型的城市近郊区农户土地投入行为决策机制仿真研究. 资源科学, 2020,42(2):286-297.]

类型	低效率	较低效率	中等效率	较高效率	高效率
类型	(0, 0.10]	(0.10, 0.30]	(0.30, 0.50]	(0.50, 0.70]	(0.70, 1]
寿光市	8.70	51.09	33.15	4.89	2.17
年轻农户	8.33	61.11	22.22	5.56	2.78
中年农户	6.86	45.10	41.18	5.88	0.98
老年农户	13.04	56.52	23.91	2.17	4.35
沂源县	49.09	41.82	7.27	0.91	0.91
年轻农户	62.50	12.50	25.00	0.00	0.00
中年农户	49.06	41.51	5.66	1.89	1.89
老年农户	46.00	46.00	8.00	0.00	0.00

类型	耕作面积(亩)	农业资金投入(万元)	农业产出(万元)	农业劳动力(人)	耕地利用效率
寿光市	5.98	3.97	11.75	2.23	0.29
年轻农户	7.98	5.22	14.31	2.58	0.27
中年农户	5.89	4.26	12.43	2.05	0.30
老年农户	4.61	2.37	8.23	2.37	0.26
沂源县	4.31	1.19	2.40	2.02	0.13
年轻农户	4.16	1.36	1.79	2.14	0.10
中年农户	5.08	1.37	2.74	2.00	0.14
老年农户	0.22	0.15	0.17	0.18	0.01

作用路径	非标准化估计值	标准化估计值	S.E.	C.R.	P
经营规模→耕地利用效率	-0.480	-0.495	0.272	-1.763	^*
耕地投入→耕地利用效率	-0.249	-0.257	0.076	-3.289	^***
耕地产出→耕地利用效率	1.381	1.425	0.309	4.469	^***
种植结构→耕地利用效率	-0.025	-0.025	0.043	-0.575	0.565
经营规模→a₁	0.861	0.863	0.047	18.255	^***
经营规模→a₂	0.943	0.945	0.045	21.089	^***
经营规模→a₃	-0.091	-0.096	0.057	-1.603	0.109
经营规模→a₄	-0.067	-0.053	0.077	-0.875	0.381
经营规模→a₁₁	0.219	0.217	0.056	3.930	^***
耕地投入→a₅	0.875	0.877	0.080	10.992	^***
耕地投入→a₆	0.134	0.134	0.066	2.025	^**
耕地投入→a₇	0.244	0.246	0.063	3.854	^***
耕地投入→a₈	-0.325	-0.326	0.064	-5.090	^***
耕地投入→a₁₀	0.209	0.209	0.077	2.713	^***
耕地投入→a₁₂	0.168	0.167	0.063	2.658	^***
耕地产出→a₉	0.980	0.981	0.051	19.167	^***
耕地产出→a₁₀	-0.015	-0.015	0.077	-0.194	0.846
种植结构→a₄	0.165	0.129	0.076	2.164	^**
种植结构→a₁₁	-0.946	-0.936	0.091	-10.386	^***
种植结构→a₁₂	0.281	0.278	0.060	4.644	^***
a₇→a₄	-0.164	-0.128	0.074	-2.227	^**

作用路径	Estimate	S.E.	C.R.	P
规模←→投入	0.647	0.061	10.631	^***
产出←→投入	0.605	0.063	9.654	^***
产出←→规模	0.863	0.031	27.529	^***
产出←→结构	0.094	0.031	3.012	^**