近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201605012

地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (5): 840-851.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201605012

近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析

刘珍环¹(), 杨鹏²(), 吴文斌², 李正国², 游良志³

1. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院国土资源与环境系,广州 5102752. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,北京 100081
3. 国际食物政策研究所,美国华盛顿 20006

收稿日期:2015-10-28 修回日期:2016-01-22 出版日期:2016-05-25 发布日期:2016-05-25
作者简介:
作者简介：刘珍环(1982-), 男, 江西泰和人, 博士, 副教授, 中国地理学会会员(S110009900M), 主要从事景观生态与土地利用、全球变化与农业遥感方面的研究。E-mail: zhenhuanliu@gmail.com
基金资助:
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助中山大学青年教师培育项目(15lgpy23);国家自然科学基金项目(41571172, 41101170)

Spatio-temporal changes in Chinese crop patterns over the past three decades

Zhenhuan LIU¹(), Peng YANG²(), Wenbin WU², Zhengguo LI², Liangzhi YOU³

1. Department of Land Resources and Environment Studies, Geography and Planning School of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
2. Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
3. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC 20006, USA

Received:2015-10-28 Revised:2016-01-22 Online:2016-05-25 Published:2016-05-25
Supported by:
The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No.15lgpy23;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41571172, No.41101170

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

综合运用时序变化趋势、空间集聚分析等方法,从种植结构类型和种植比例变化趋势分析了1980年以来中国县域种植结构的时空特征。结果表明：① 近30年来中国前10位的种植结构类型有16种,2002年后多元种植结构逐步替代单一型种植结构。粮食作物占优的单一种植结构类型呈逐年递减趋势,其中1980年全国82.7%的县级农业种植结构是水稻、小麦、玉米及其组合种植类型,2002年后的果蔬类型增加改变了种植结构格局。② 全国种植县中有47%的水稻、61%的小麦和29.6%的玉米的种植比例显著减少,其他作物呈现增加趋势。粮食作物由以水稻为主的格局调整为水稻、小麦和玉米共存格局,其中玉米种植面积比例在空间上变化最为显著,在中国形成北东—西南向的“玉米减少带”。种植结构调整热点的城市地区,城市化对种植结构变化影响显著,水果和蔬菜类种植比例在城市化地区快速增加。③ 种植结构变化趋势在1300个县形成空间集聚效应,水稻的高高聚集占全国县数的2.86%、小麦占5.64%、玉米占6.11%、大豆为4.53%、麻类为1.62%、棉花占7.77%、蔬菜占8.24%、薯类占12%、水果占10%、糖料占1.41%、油料占9.35%,主要分布于中国东北、新疆和沿海的城市化地区。

关键词: 农作物, 种植结构类型, 时空变化, 中国

Abstract:

The study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in crop patterns in China since 1980. In doing so, the analysis methods of time-series trend and spatial cluster were used to cover the major eleven crops at county scale. The results indicate that (1) There are 16 kinds of crop combinations ranking in the China's top 10 during the past 30 years. Yet since 2002, the simplified cropping structure has been gradually replaced by the multiple cropping structure, which suggests an increase in the diversity index of crop patterns. In 1980, about 82.7% of China's counties have a similar crop pattern which is composed of rice, wheat, corn and their combinations, however, this pattern largely changed after 2002 due to the increase in the planting area of fruit and vegetables. (2) In the same period, rice planting area of 47% of the counties, wheat planting area of 61% of the counties of and corn area of 29.6% of the counties experience a significant decrease, while other crops show an increasing trend. As a result, rice-dominated cereal crops in China are slightly adjusted to the coexistence of rice, wheat and maize crops. In particular, maize area proportion shows a significant change, which forms a so-called "corn decreased belt” spanning from northeast to southwest of China. Urbanization had an important impact on crop patterns as fruit and vegetable planting areas rapidly grow so as to meet the increasing demands in urbanized areas. (3) Crop patterns also show an obvious spatial cluster effect in China's 1300 counties. The proportion of high cluster accounts for 2.86%, 5.64%, 6.11%, 4.53%, 1.62%, 7.77%, 8.24%, 12%, 10%, 1.41% and 9.35% of China's counties for rice, wheat, maize, soybean, fibers, cotton, vegetables, potatoes, fruits, sugars and oils, respectively. These crops are distributed in Northeast China, Xinjiang, Northern Shaanxi Plateau, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the metropolis areas. This finding of this study can support the decision making in agricultural restructuring and adaptation to climate change.

Key words: crop, crop pattern, temporal and spatial change, China

刘珍环, 杨鹏, 吴文斌, 李正国, 游良志. 近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(5): 840-851.

Zhenhuan LIU, Peng YANG, Wenbin WU, Zhengguo LI, Liangzhi YOU. Spatio-temporal changes in Chinese crop patterns over the past three decades[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(5): 840-851.

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排序	1980年			1990年				2000年
排序	类型		县数	比例(%)	类型	县数	比例(%)	类型	县数	比例(%)
1	水稻	659	28.2	水稻	716	30.6		水稻	646	27.6
2	小麦—玉米	373	15.9	小麦	435	18.6		小麦	413	17.6
3	小麦	340	14.5	小麦—玉米	426	18.2		玉米	291	12.4
4	玉米	318	13.6	玉米	289	12.3		小麦—玉米	180	7.7
5	水稻—小麦	136	5.8	水稻—玉米	288	12.3		蔬菜	155	6.6
6	水稻—玉米	111	4.7	蔬菜	20	0.9		水果	127	5.4
7	油料	104	4.4	水果	15	0.6		薯类	75	3.2
8	大豆	62	2.6	油料	14	0.6		油料	71	3
9	薯类	56	2.4	薯类	11	0.5		小麦—油料	39	1.7
10	棉花	25	1.1	水稻—小麦—玉米	9	0.4		水稻—油料	37	1.6
11	其他	157	6.7	其他	118	5		其他	307	13.1
排序	2001年			2002年				2011年
排序	类型		县数	比例(%)	类型	县数	比例(%)	类型	县数	比例(%)
1	水稻	703	30.0	水稻	466	19.9		水稻	468	20
2	小麦	409	17.5	小麦	330	14.1		玉米	351	15
3	玉米	282	12.0	玉米	247	10.6		小麦—玉米	230	9.8
4	小麦—玉米	167	7.1	蔬菜	214	9.1		小麦	207	8.8
5	蔬菜	119	5.1	小麦—玉米	108	4.6		蔬菜	108	4.6
6	水果	94	4.0	薯类	93	4		水果	97	4.1
7	薯类	61	2.6	油料	82	3.5		薯类	94	4
8	油料	54	2.3	水果	71	3		水稻—蔬菜	59	2.5
9	小麦—油料	41	1.8	大豆	51	2.2		棉花	44	1.9
10	水稻—玉米	28	1.2	水稻—小麦—玉米	36	1.5		水稻—小麦	41	1.8
11	其他	383	16.4	其他	643	27.5		其他	642	27.4

作物类型	县级样本数	无趋势			增加趋势		减少趋势			显著性增加^*			显著性减少^*
作物类型	县级样本数	县数		比例(%)		县数	比例(%)		县数	比例(%)	县数	比例(%)	县数	比例(%)
水稻	2341	449	19.2		390	16.7	1502	64.2		46	2.0		1101	47.0
小麦	2341	178	7.6		217	9.3	1946	83.1		20	0.9		1429	61.0
玉米	2341	88	3.8		1085	46.3	1168	49.9		417	17.8		693	29.6
大豆	2341	179	7.6		1778	76.0	384	16.4		1177	50.3		91	3.9
麻类	2341	1776	75.9		247	10.6	318	13.6		113	4.8		181	7.7
棉花	2341	1353	57.8		718	30.7	270	11.5		394	16.8		111	4.7
蔬菜	2341	17	0.7		2271	97.0	53	2.3		2054	87.7		3	0.1
薯类	2341	124	5.3		1983	84.7	234	10.0		1392	59.5		40	1.7
水果	2341	104	4.4		2071	88.5	166	7.1		1656	70.7		40	1.7
糖料	2341	1040	44.4		572	24.4	729	31.1		57	2.4		18	0.8
油料	2341	34	1.5		2071	88.5	236	10.1		1627	69.5		17	0.7

近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析

Spatio-temporal changes in Chinese crop patterns over the past three decades

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